https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...ukrainian.html

Two Leopard 2A6 and one Leopard 2A4 lost, 11 Bradleys lost, several other armoured vehicles from European partners lost.

The offensive seems to stuck in severla places.

The only reason I am so obsessed and pedantic with Ukrainian losses is that Ukraine is so short on numbers, has so short breath to sustain such losses. 10% of the promised and partially delivered Bradleys already gone.

IknowIknow - high losses were to be expected. Question is how long Ukraine can afford these and how long Russian defence can keep up the pressure. In many places their artillery and air force seem to have the upper hand.


On as sidenote, Rheinmetall said where they recommended to change the barrels for the Panzerhaubitze 2000 every 4500 shots, the Ukrainians use for for 20000 shots before changing them. Rheimetall says it is surprised by how well the German kits hold together. The Marders also are in high demand, Russian 30mm rounds cannot penetrate it at the front, the Ukrainians absolutely love the Marders, RM says. Well. Its still one of the best protected IFVs wordwide, and it still has a super-rapid and superprecise autocannon, though that lacks in power a bit (20mm).

Russian economy 'collapsing' while Putin treats people as 'objects to be herded into war'

Even a Leopard 2 can break down. Kurds have already taken out a Turkish Leopard 2 in northern Syria. A vehicle is only effective if you use it properly, on the right terrain, otherwise you are always vulnerable. One of the biggest worries on the Ukrainian side is that if they have that breakthrough, the Russian air force is going to step in massively on that. So Ukraine will also have to position the bulk of its air defenses there, including the fighters, to keep the Russian air force away from there. You have to have all your assets in the right place at the right time. You don't do that overnight, it's a matter of days and weeks to plan that. Right now, fighting is taking place in several places. It is not yet clear where the main attack will come. So you force Russia to constantly make the choice: where am I going to deploy the reserves or deploy myself to counter a breakthrough? How effective will the Russian air force be? And how effective the Ukrainian air defense? These are the crucial issues that will determine how the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which has really taken off in the last few days, will turn out. I think we will know more in a week's time.

^
Let the enemy fumble in the dark-A Markus proverb.

Markus

The outcome of wars and battles is often determined by reserves because they are often experienced and well-trained soldiers. Russia will want to deploy its reserves where the danger of a breakthrough is the greatest Ukraine will do everything in its power to mislead the Russians so that the chances of Ukrainians encountering Russian reserves are minimized, or that those reserves arrive too late. The Zaporizhzhia region is the most logical option. Then you can push on to the Sea of Azov and break the land link between Russia and Crimea. But you can also regain a lot of ground in Luhansk and then head north towards Kharkiv.

Ukraine reports small ground gain, videos show abandoned or destroyed Leopard 2 tanks

The Ukrainian army reported small ground gains on the front line on Saturday. It is too early to evaluate to what extent the counteroffensive is successful, military experts say. Ukraine says it has liberated territory near the town of Bakhmut, which fell entirely to Russia only last month. The Ukrainian army forced the Russian army back to 1.4 kilometers at several positions near the occupied town, a spokesman for the Ukrainian armed forces said Saturday.

Statements from both armies are difficult to verify in the fog of the counter-offensive. What is clear is that heavy fighting took place again in eastern and southeastern Ukraine on Saturday. Videos show Ukrainian soldiers storming Russian trenches with the help of US armored vehicles. A resident of an occupied village in Zaporizhzhia province reported Saturday via Telegram heavy explosions near Tokmak, a town Ukraine is supposed to recapture in order to advance towards greater Melitopol. President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on Saturday for the first time that Ukraine is engaged in a counteroffensive, but did not say at what stage the offensive is. The Ukrainian army urged the population not to spread information about the offensive via a video of soldiers with their index finger on their lip.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that the Ukrainian offensive has begun. Russia claims to have stopped the Ukrainian attacks so far. Videos circulated by Russian military bloggers and verified by The New York Times show three abandoned or destroyed German Leopard 2 tanks of the Ukrainian army.

The offensive will last for months, military experts expect. 'First impressions are more reminiscent of Kherson than Kharkiv,' writes Michael Kofman, expert on the Russian military at US think tank CNA. In Kharkiv province last year, Ukraine liberated an area the size of a quarter of the Netherlands within three weeks. By contrast, the offensive in Kherson province, where a smaller area was liberated, was much slower and at a higher cost: it took the Ukrainian army more than three months to drive the Russian army from the west bank of the Dnipro.

Meanwhile, Russia is carrying out new airstrikes on Ukrainian cities. In Odesa on Saturday, three civilians were killed in a Russian attack by Iranian drones, Ukrainian authorities reported. In Kherson province, a Russian artillery strike killed two aid workers who were working to evacuate civilians from houses flooded by the breach of the Nova Kachovkadam. At least 27 people are reported missing in the flood area by Ukrainian authorities. https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-ach...anks~b5d8416b/

No.

Several Leopards, some say over one dozen, some even say up to 40 Leopard 2A4s had been taken out because Turkish commanders knew sh!t about how to operate MBTs in urban environment and send them in all alone and did not protect them with the needed infantry support that tanks in cities and urban areas desperately need. Also, the A4 is less thick-armoured than later models. Its a tank that arrived when I was still at school.

By the end of today only in one region Ukraine is reported to have advanced 2 km, in some other regions it advanced less than 2km, and in the rest it so far was repelled, with Russians filling up second line defences i the supsected main axis of attack, just in case, and both sides seem to focus on Melitopol.



Last year Ukraine surprised a backwarded Russia with modern and non-Sovjet warfare and drones and all that. But the Russians have learned, they have adapted, and copied the Ukrainians, now turning the success recipe from last year against them. At least they try, we will see if they succeed. But obviously this offensive is not as easy as that in Cherson or Charkiv last year. And I expected that and said that, early.



The lacking numbers and reserves is what really concerns me. Thats what is the basis of all my nagging: they have too little of everything, but must expect higher own losses while attacking with numerical inferiority. That can work for some time - but not longer. If they do not get their objectives secured within that timeframe, then thwe war will turn against them for its remainign time. The west will not resupply and beef them up once again like in the past 8 months. Europeans lack the reserves.


It has become apparent also that they do not seem to use the Leopards in a few concentrated fist, but scattered them across many units, mixing them with T-72s etc. I assume that is due to the drone warfare of nowadays.



It was expected the Bradleys's TOWs would take a juicy bite out of Russian tanks like they did in the Gulf war, but despite the high losses of the Bradleys we heard nothing on their kill score so far.



And what do they do with taken out Wetsenr tanks that are in danger to fall nto Russian ahnds? Germany cannot like the idea of Leopard-2A6s being studied en detail by Russian engineers. And how sensitive is the technolgy in the Bradleys today? Night vision? Digitalization?

The Russians have high losses you can not expect it like it was in the Gulf War those personnel were trained for much longer do not expect the same result of last year terrain is different and Russian defense is... yes they are now switched to defense so harder to tackle this was all known by Ukraine it is like the collapse of the dam in the planing of this offensive. Ukraine will find a point to break through, but that takes time the loses now even with western material where expected you can not compare US latest wars they had on all front superiority Ukraine has not, but also the Russian have not. I am only saying time will tell, nobody can predict this. For the support, I bet you the faction backing Ukraine now will not stop this, we will not forget we will not forgive MH-!7.

Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner spoke on NTV [a German news network] of fierce Russian resistance. "The Ukrainian side is surprised by the Russians' doggedness and flexibility." The Russian forces were able to stop the Ukrainian offensive not only by using artillery and minefields, but also deploy the air force for tactical support, according to Reisner. In addition, he said, the Russians have become more flexible: "They are now deploying very small mobile squads with anti-tank guided missiles with a range of two kilometers on buggies," Reisner said. These small vehicles are barely detectable, he said. "This is a nasty surprise for Ukraine." (One of the things they meanwhile learned from the Ukrainians)

Ukraine expects to get some Abrams, and then some Leopard-1s, if they are lucky nearly 100 Leopard-1. If the current force of Western tanks already gets mauled - I only say if that is the case - then a few Abrams will not make a difference and the Leopard-1s are even much weaker.

European countries cannot give much more than they already did in tanks, because their own stocks and reserves have to be found and dug out of the dust and rubble, so to speak. Lets afce it, Eurppean militaries are in a very shabby state. Ukraine will not get once more the ammounts of what it got so far and is proimsied for later this year - the stuff simply is not there. The political willingness to support Ukraine will decline and public support is in a dive since months already.

Last year at Cherson it most likely was American intervention that stopped the Ukrainains from bombarding the vulnerable retreating Russian troops at those bridges (why would the Ukrainians stop that all by themselves...?), however, south of Charkiv and in the middle between both these regions the Ukrainians had planned to continue another, third offensive vector that usually is not much talked of. It bogged down and got stuck - due to too high losses.

I quote again Colonel Reisner, but his advise is really nothing special, is common sense: "It does us no good to gloss over the situation."Said in late May this year on the chances for a successful offensive.

Everybody saying that supplying Ukraine just as was done so far and doing this endlessly, must answer this single quesation: where should the additional Leopards and Challengers come from...? They do not rain down from the sky nor grow on trees.

So it seems the Ukriane already suffers bigger losses than was anticipated. All I say is that they cannot afford this for long. They better find a way to change this, and quickly so. Lets hope they do.

If I were asked a week ago how I see the chances for the ukrainians in this offensive, I would have said "50:50". Currently I see them at 45:55, trend negative. Nothing is decided yet, but its clear that they must get back on a more successful track. Their offensive has not started well.


edit:
Russia reports this for the 24 hours of Saturday:
"The total losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the mentioned areas within a day amounted to up to 300 soldiers, 9 tanks, including 4 Leopards, and 11 infantry fighting vehicles, including 5 American Bradleys...," Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Saturday. A French Cesar howitzer was also destroyed, he added. [Focus]
Okay, Russian numbers must be taken with utmost care, but if true then 15% of the Bradleys and 10% of the Leopards already are out. After three days. The offensive likely was planned to last weeks, a low number of months. Do the math.
If true, these losses simply are too high.

In an interview with "NTV", security expert Joachim Weber of the University of Bonn warned against underestimating Putin's army.

"The Russian military is probably better positioned than many here believe," Weber said. The army's big problem, he said, is "primarily combat morale, because many soldiers don't see the point of this war and are also likely to be somewhat demoralized by all the defeats that have been suffered."

Images of Western tank casualties during the counteroffensive were "expected," Weber said, and probably within the bounds of what is expected in such an offensive. The Russians, he said, "are not idiots; they have learned at every stage of the war."

He does not predict easy successes for Ukraine. The front in the south and southeast has been heavily fortified in recent months, he said: "It's all very well prepared, and it's really going to be very difficult to make an operational breakthrough there at any point."

[Focus]


The British intel says the Russian airforce is unusually busy over the front. The first defence line of the Russians has been breached in one area of attack, in the others the attacks got stuck so far.