This analysis in FOCUS supports my scepticism. Things are not going too badly for Putin, thanks to active help from Berlin and Paris.

I say since long time both capitols do not want Ukriane in NATO and EU sinc ethat would come at the cost of their own power and influence. To give up that they are not ready. They prefer to sacrifice the Ukraine.

I was tempted to write somethign like "The fate of the Ukraine is sealed", but that maybe still would be a bit too premature. But things do not look good when even at least some of its acclaimed friends are workign against it. With friend slike these, I see no reason for optism.

Mind you, when Scholz went to the summit, he did so in the expectation that Biden would not deliver M1s. Bidne on his side had sent envoys to Kyiv and Moscow, tersting acceptance for kind of a peace plan or a plan for negotiations at least. Both sides said NO. And only then was when Biden changed his mind with Scholz already in midair, so to speak, to reverse his decision and send M1s. Scholz got caught on two wrong feet, completely surprised, for he planned to hide further behind America'S refusal, and from then on was pushed into the defensive. That the Germans still insist on that it all is done in mutual decision making and mutual understanding, is a lie the Germans must keep if they want to not get revealed as the big hesitators and delayers that they have been all the time: they are needed to be carried to every single decision they made, and they delayed that decision always for as long as they could.

Do not trust the Germans. Nor the French.

On a sidenote, Zelensky was asked a couple of days ago what he really thought about the German policy and support. He evaded and said that he could not honestly answer that question now - but one should ask him again after the war.

Right now I cannot bite the hand that feeds me, even if it is just that little bit, that meant.

----------------------

Two Ukraine revelations make clear what the West really wants


Two revelations put the Ukraine war in a new light: Selenskyj should finally be open to negotiations with Putin, demand Scholz and Macron. And: Germany would not have supplied Ukraine with tanks on its own. Support is dwindling.

There are now two revelations, and they reveal this: In confidential talks, the German chancellor urges the Ukrainian president to negotiate with Vladimir Putin. And he would not have delivered German battle tanks of his own accord either; that would have required the help of the Americans. In any case, unreserved help for Ukraine looks different.

One revelation comes from US President Joe Biden's security adviser. Jake Sullivan said on U.S. television that the Germans were only willing to supply Leopard tanks to Ukraine if the Americans supplied Abrams tanks. Biden eventually agreed to that - against the advice of his military officials, he said.

The German government finds this version - well: suboptimal. It supports the thesis that, contrary to what has been claimed, Olaf Scholz is not resolutely leading, but is above all resolutely hiding behind the Americans' backs. And that's not all: The German government had clearly denied that such a junction had ever existed. For it feeds the suspicion that the Chancellor does not trust the Americans to keep their NATO standby promise in the event of a Russian "escalation" into German territory. Therefore, a government spokesman now went into action.

Wolfgang Büchner, however, did not flatly deny the Sullivan versions, but wrapped them in absorbent cotton. This is common when a government wants to protect itself without hurting an ally. It sounds like this: "These were good, constructive talks in which care was always taken by both sides to come to a common approach." The decision was amicable between Washington and Berlin, he said.

Yes - what else? The fact that in the end such a decision is amicable does not say anything about what happened in the beginning. And in the beginning, Scholz stubbornly refused to send Leopards to Ukraine, just as he had refused to send Marder infantry fighting vehicles before. It always needed the push from the outside.

The New York Times already reported on this at the end of January: Biden had thus wanted to give Scholz political flank protection. There are several other solid sources for this. At the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, the chancellor met with American senators. And they confirmed afterwards the junket that today Scholz wants nothing more to do with.

After his conversation with Scholz, Chris Coons, the Democratic senator from Biden's hometown of Delaware, said this: "If it's necessary to deliver some Abrams tanks to clear the way for Leopard tanks from Germany, Poland and other allies, I'm for it." If - then: a classic junket.

Now Sullivan, who spoke of the junket, is in permanent contact with his Ukrainian colleague Yermak, Selenskyj chief of office. So Selenskyj, it can be assumed, was aware of the deal - German Leos are only available if U.S. Abrams are also coming. Selenskyj met with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham shortly after the WEF, and he tweeted afterward, "To the Biden administration: send American tanks so others follow your lead."

And Graham's Democratic colleague Richard Blumenthal said this: "We should deliver the Abrams, then the Germans will also give up Leopard tanks to stop the Russian attack." Biden then demonstratively cleared the way for the Abrams, sending a powerful signal for Selenskyj and against Putin as the leader of the Western allies.

However: the Leopards will be delivered from now on, the Abrams will not arrive until the end of the year at the earliest, probably not until next year. The U.S. government justifies the delay by saying that no Abrams from its own army inventory should be sent.

This is because they have special armor whose formula is top secret - and should remain so. The Abrams to be sent to Ukraine will have different armor. It is questionable whether the Abrams will then be needed at all. This is where the second revelation comes into play, it comes from the Wall Street Journal. According to the report, at a joint meeting in Paris, Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron urged Selenskyj to negotiate with Russia.


According to the U.S. paper, Macron's top officials believe Ukraine has no chance of liberating Crimea from the Russians, and that a complete liberation of the Donbass is also all but impossible. Ukraine would now be supplied with Western weapons once again, but by the fall it would have to have shown that it was capable of substantial conquest. Otherwise, there should be negotiations, which Putin has so far ruled out just as much as Selenskyj.

In any case, by the fall, there will be Leopard tanks in Ukraine, but no Abrams tanks. Which also puts in a pale light the promise of Biden, who had said that the U.S. would always help Ukraine and supply "whatever it takes, as long as it takes."

In this context, a British initiative is important. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is proposing to provide Ukraine with Western weapons in the medium term so that even if the country remains militarily neutral, it can credibly deter Russia after a peace deal is reached. Scholz and Macron support the British plan, which is to be decided on by NATO in July.

In any case, one thing is clear: The claim that there are no negotiations at all or the demand that diplomacy should finally be given a chance is wrong. Negotiations are taking place, and intensively. Scholz and Macron talk sometimes with Putin, sometimes with Selensky. Biden is negotiating with Selensky, and there are also intensive U.S.-Ukrainian consultations one floor below, at the ministerial level.

The bottom line is that what the West wants is gradually becoming clearer. Ukraine is being signaled, contrary to public slogans of loyalty and perseverance, that military assistance is limited in time. Selenskyj is expected to evolve from a war president to a peace president, or as Macron is said to have told him - a "statesman." To liberate everything the Russians have occupied, more and more allies in the West consider illusory. Ukraine is supposed to get modern Western weapons later, but not be able to become a NATO member.

So things are not going badly for Putin.
------------------------

The old Russian tradition of using provincial (and non-Russian) populations as cannon-fodder is alive and well

https://i.postimg.cc/BbHz0yYw/Fp-Ecyf-Xs-AMTLso.jpg
https://twitter.com/Roger_Moorhouse/...37930257256448

Poland Reveals When It Will Send Rest of Leopard Tanks to Ukraine
Poland will send the next batch of Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine within a few weeks.

As PAP agency reports, Michal Dworczyk, Chief of the Prime Minister Chancellery, shared when the next ten promised Leopard 2A4 tanks would be delivered.

"Soon. First, the training of Ukrainian troops should be completed since some of these tanks are currently being used there. It will last several weeks," he said.

When asked about the PT-91 tanks announced by the Prime Minister to arrive in Ukraine, he said that their transfer with the T-72 is also a matter of weeks, "if not sooner." "They are practically in the process of sending. They will soon be in Ukraine," he added. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/e...02/27/7156999/

US Congress will pressure Biden on F-16s. They may appear at сrucial moment, - Chairman of Committee on Foreign Affairs McCaul

Chairman of the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee Michael McCaul said that Congress will put pressure on President Joe Biden’s administration to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.

He stated this in an interview with ABC News, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to LeagueBusinessInform.

He said he hopes that the Republican and Democratic parties will put pressure on the White House to agree to give Ukraine long-range missiles and F-16s, especially in expectation of a Russian offensive.

He noted that the long-range munitions and aircraft could come to Ukraine at a "decisive and crucial" moment in the conflict.

"When we give them something they can actually use and ask for, they win. When we go slow and slow this thing down, it drags on, and that's exactly what Putin wants," McCaul said.

When asked what can be done at the legislative level to force Biden to send Ukraine long-range systems and F-16s, the congressman said that the appropriations bills (maximum amounts of budget funds to be allocated - Ed.) will specify the priorities of weapons systems. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402553

Zaluzhny discussed with Milley provision of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine to strengthen air defense

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhnyi had a telephone conversation with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley.

This is stated by Censor.NЕТ with reference to the page of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Facebook.

"Traditionally, we paid attention to the supply of military equipment, weapons and ammunition as part of international technical assistance to Ukraine, the situation on the front line and the future plans of the Ukrainian Defense Forces to de-occupy its territory.

He emphasized the need to strengthen the capabilities of Ukraine's air defense system, including through the provision of F-16 multi-role combat aircraft," Zaluzhnyi said.

The Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine expressed confidence that with the help of partners, Ukraine will certainly win. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402594

Bulgaria resumes production of Soviet-type shells for Ukraine - The New York Times

After a 35-year hiatus, the Terem arms factory in Kostenets, Bulgaria, began producing Soviet-style 122mm artillery shells for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

This is stated by The New York Times, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to LeagueBusinessInform.

The plant stopped producing 122mm shells in 1988 when the Cold War ended. In January 2023, the company resumed production of shells.

The ribbon-cutting ceremony for the new production line in Kostenets was attended by representatives of the US Embassy.

With the new jobs, the plant may become one of Kostenets's largest employers.

"This is a big deal for the city," said Vice Mayor Margarita Mincheva.

In addition, the VMZ arms factory in Sopot has switched to a six-day work week to produce shells for Ukraine.

Officially, Bulgaria has said since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine that it does not support the supply of weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces, but Welt's research shows that Sofia actively helped Kyiv with ammunition and diesel fuel for military equipment in the crucial months of the war. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402563

First battalion of Ukrainian Armed Forces completed training on operation of M2 Bradley IFV

The first battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has completed training on the operation of M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.

This was stated in Telegram by First Deputy Minister of Defense Oleksandr Pavliuk, reports Censor.NЕТ.

"The First Battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has completed training on the operation of M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Ukrainian servicemen were trained to use the American armored personnel carriers at a US base in Germany.

Bradley are quite powerful vehicles that were designed to counter Soviet equipment in battles," he emphasized. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402564

Like Merkel before him, Scholz is a politician who prefers to be led by polls instead of leading. When the polls showed Germans were skeptical of sending heavy weapons to Ukraine, for example, he held back instead of making the case as to why such support was in Germany’s own best interest. He only relented once the pressure from outside Germany, especially from the U.S., became so great that he had no choice.

Washington is slowly waking up to the fact that Germany’s Zeitenwende is a mirage. German defense spending this year is expected to be about €50 billion, falling well short once again of NATO’s target of 2 percent of GDP. As ever, Scholz and other German politicians are promising to reach the target soon.

The contrast with neighboring Poland, where spending is forecast to jump to 3 percent of GDP this year from 2.2 percent, couldn’t be greater.

That’s one reason why the U.S. is embracing Poland like never before. Biden’s center-left administration and Poland’s national conservative government are hardly natural allies. But they are united by a common enemy, and President Biden has visited the country twice in less than a year. https://www.politico.eu/article/germ...ne-war-russia/

Russia responds to China’s 12-point peace plan for ending war

Russia has claimed it is paying “a great deal of attention” to China’s 12-point peace plan to end the Ukraine war.

The Kremlin responded to the plans on Monday, which were put forward last week by China ahead of the anniversary of the invasion.

Vladimir Putin’s spokesman said: “We are paying a great deal of attention to the plan of our Chinese friends.

“Of course, the details need to be painstakingly analysed taking into account the interests of all the different sides. This is a very long and intense process.

It comes after Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Russian counterpart will one day be killed by his own inner circle.

Speaking in the new Ukrainian documentary “Year”, Mr Zelensky said: “There will definitely be a moment when the fragility of Putin’s regime will be felt inside the [Russian] state.”

“And then the predators will devour a predator. They will find a reason to kill a killer,” he said.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...f06766a605de07

NEXTA @nexta_tv
"Belarusian independent media report that in the morning the sounds of explosions were heard in the area of the airfield. A helicopter patrolled the area around the possible emergency and riot policemen worked on the ground."

NEXTA @nexta_tv Feb 26
"Russian "war correspondents" confirm the information about the attack. There is a version of drone attacks on military infrastructure, where Russian air force equipment may be deployed.

Representatives of Lukashenka's regime did not comment on the situation."

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...27852253626368

"Weaponised drones have become an essential weapon. A Russian Beriev A-50 (code name: Mainstay) Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) cost of about $330 Million was heavily damaged by two weaponised drones in an airbase in Belarus. “Russian military aircraft blown up near Minsk…” 27 Feb 2023 Reuters"

It does not just "fall short". It shrinks. It is expected to stabilise on that lower niveau in 2024 and 2025 (by consuming major parts of that additional special fund for that cause) - and in the years from 2026 to shrink further, when the special budget has been eaten up. Needless to say, one year ago Scholz said there should be a net fulöfillment of the 2% goal PLUS the special fund of 100bn (which already is just 87bn, and due to inflation shrinks further and further).

One can only shake the head about this. But as I said already one year ago: no surprise, I am not surprised one bit. Nothing else than this windblowing was to be expected.

To be fair on a principle level: its true that Germany in generla is bancrupt, like every other Western state anyway. We cannot finance the many voter briberies and state bureaucracy and pensions and interest payments without making new additional debts every year. Plus desperately needed investments in infrastructure repair, education, health systems... Germany spends more than it can afford, and lives like that since decades. All states do that, it seems.

^^^ I just wrote on a friends wall that I could very well foresee a civil war in Russia and then I see your video.

Markus

Revolutions are hard to predict even Lenin had it wrong and missed the opportunities many times

Had not the word revolution in my mind. I was thinking a regular civil war.

Markus

Remember Nemetsov?

It’s because of Putin there is war. War, which was made possible by murdering those who stood in his way. It didn’t have to be this way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1ETBWoelOU