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One year of sanctions: how is Russia's economy holding up for now?
Since President Putin launched his so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine, Russia has been one of the most sanctioned countries in the world. Just yesterday, EU member states agreed on a tenth sanctions package. Many economists predicted a complete collapse of the Russian economy. Manufacturing would grind to a halt because of the ban on buying Russian goods. There would be a major banking crisis, and oil and gas revenues would evaporate. People in the West also expected large-scale protests and unrest among the Russian people. Many of these predictions have not come true now, a year later, as yet. Natalya Zubievich, a 68-year-old professor of economics at Moscow State University, explains how this is possible. "We were all wrong," says Zubievich. She, too, predicted the demise of the Russian economy. "It was the first time Russia had had such large-scale sanctions imposed, and nobody knew how the economy and business would adjust. We were not optimistic." But on reflection, she calls it an illusion to think that sanctions could devastate the entire Russian economy. "Russia is a big country, with a huge amount of resources. The world is big, and there are always alternatives." She also says sanctions can never change a political regime. Zubarevich explained that Russia's economy has been trying to disengage from the West since 2014. Back then, the country had sanctions imposed on it following its annexation of Crimea. To counter this, Russia replaced many Western products with domestic ones, or had goods imported from other, non-Western countries. Russia has also been unable to access its foreign assets since 2014. "So Russia already had experience, and was prepared for tougher sanctions," he said. According to Zubarevich, it is naive of the West to expect major consequences because the sanctions were introduced so gradually. According to her, the sanctions that hit Russia hardest were imposed far too late to have their intended effect. "Only in December did you start the oil boycott. That gave Russian business a lot of time to prepare properly, factor in all the risks and focus on other markets." Things did change in the street scene. Western shops are still largely closed, with signs reading "due to technical circumstances, we are temporarily closed". Some chains have now been replaced by Russian variants. For instance, McDonald's has become 'Tasty, full stop' and Starbucks has been replaced by Stars Coffee. Many products and goods are still available, contrary to expectations. Most sanctions are now circumvented by parallel imports. Almost everything now enters the country through China, Turkey, Dubai, Armenia and Kazakhstan. "That's called business. If people want to make money, and with this they can make lol, they always find ways," Zubievich said. Although most economists expect that it could be another three to four years before Russia's treasury is so empty that it has major consequences, the next few years will also be tough, according to Zoebarevich. Either way, years of stagnation and slow decline are coming, she says. "Since the mobilization, half a million people have left. That is a huge loss of human capital. Some of them are returning, but how many?" She foresees the biggest problems for the federal budget. "The loss of oil and gas revenues will definitely hurt. The budget deficit will widen. The state is spending much more on the military and defense, and that will be at the expense of education or healthcare, for example." Asked why Russians are not, as was expected in the West, protesting en masse against the sanctions, she responded with irritation. "I get so tired of that question. Take to the streets yourself. Will you in the West also be immediately arrested or bludgeoned by the police if you protest? I don't think so." Not only state repression plays a major role, but also the fatalism of Russian residents, and their ability to adapt. Russian incomes are expected to fall by 3 per cent in the coming years. "That's not much. And it won't kill anyone. Russians are used to their incomes falling during crises. They resign themselves to it, they will do so until the end." We should not forget that almost a quarter of Russia's population is poor, or living near the poverty line, she says. And many Russians are also weighed down by heavy pressure from their high loans. But Zubievich does not see a moment when they have had enough: "Most of Russia is simply trying to survive. We remember well what a repressive state can do. That fear is passed on from generation to generation. In a country where repression is only increasing, there are no more red lines." https://nos.nl/collectie/13924/artik...nog-standhoudt |
Not every person in Europe is happy about the situation where their leaders sent weapon and ammo to Ukraine.
Thousand of people had gathered in Berlin to demonstrate against German leaders and the sending of weapon to Ukraine Quote:
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Pfffft. Here is a picture from my hometown, the simultaneously held "support demonstration" for the Berlin one. https://asc-images.forward-publishin...24&auto=format |
Ukraine has issued postage stamps featuring a mural by renowned UK graffiti artist Banksy to mark the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion.
The mural depicts a man resembling Russian President Vladimir Putin being flipped during a judo match with a young boy. The original art is on a house that was devastated by Russian shelling in the town of Borodyanka, near the capital Kyiv. A phrase with an abbreviated expletive addressing the Russian leader has been added to the bottom left corner of the stamps. https://i.postimg.cc/50n17hxG/Untitled.jpg |
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13,000 participants, and the Nazi and conspiracy ideological slime to be expected. The Daily Mirror: ------------------------------ Old familiar or new movement?: Who the "Uprising for Peace" actually attracted Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer dream of a new peace movement after their demonstration. But it is unclear what this would look like in concrete terms. At the end of their joint gathering, Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer dream of something much bigger. "This is clearly the beginning of a citizens' movement," analyzes Schwarzer, a women's rights activist. People now want to start organizing, announced Wagenknecht, a left-wing politician. According to police, about 13,000 people followed the two women to Berlin's government district on Saturday to demonstrate for an immediate stop to German arms deliveries to Ukraine and diplomatic negotiations. Both Wagenknecht and Schwarzer see the demonstration as the starting signal for a new political movement. But what would this look like in concrete terms? To answer this question, it is helpful to take a close look at the participants in the Berlin "peace demonstration." Particularly striking was the advanced age of many demonstrators; young people were hardly to be seen. Similar to the protests of the Querdenken movement, the so-called boomer generation predominated in the spectrum of participants. Thousands of supporters of the Left Party and members of the peace movement gathered in front of the stage in particular. Not necessarily dominating, but nevertheless present and tolerated in relatively high numbers were conspiracy ideologues and lateral thinkers. Thus, numerous symbols of the "Basis" party were to be seen, individual demonstrators demanded on posters the release of Querdenken founder Michael Ballweg. Participants carried flags of the far-right "Free Saxons" or the Brandenburg offshoot "Free Brandenburgers". In addition, there were well-known actors of the scene such as the Dresden head of Querdenken, Marcus Fuchs, the Berlin doctor Paul Brandenburg or Putin propagandist Vyacheslav Seewald, who stretched a flag of the Soviet Union into the sky. At least a thousand former participants of the Wagenknecht demonstration joined another protest at Potsdamer Platz after the rally ended. This was dominated by right-wing and conspiracy ideological groups and was apparently also registered. Although an attempt was made at the beginning of the Wagenknecht demonstration to push the editor-in-chief of the far-right "Compact" magazine, Jürgen Elsässer, out of the demonstration, this did not really work. A little later, "Compact" flags also appeared in front of the stage on the Straße des 17. Juni. At the same time, numerous AfD politicians, such as the Saxon state chairman Jörg Urban, the Berlin member of parliament Gunnar Lindemann, Hans-Thomas Tillschneider from Saxony-Anhalt and the Brandenburg members of parliament Lars Hünich and Lars Günther, were on site. On some posters NS-glorifying slogans were to be read. Racist insults against Ukrainians Although the Wagenknecht demonstration remained peaceful on the whole, there were always clashes with pro-Ukrainian counter-demonstrators, especially during the arrival and departure. In front of the Russian Embassy, there were not only verbal conflicts, but also physical attacks on people with Ukrainian symbols. In addition, there were racist attacks against Ukrainian refugees who were demonstrating on the central strip of the boulevard Unter den Linden. Several times the phrase "**** off from our country" was heard. Overall, the audience at Wagenknecht and Schwarzer's event was reminiscent, at least in part, of the spectrum of so-called "peace vigils" that marked the beginning of a cross-front from the right and left in 2014. In this respect, it is at least questionable whether Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer's demonstration on Saturday actually marked the start of a new peace movement or rather brought an old, long-forgotten one back onto the streets and united it. ------------------- Meanwhile, the Nazi and AfD state chairman Björn Höcke has offered Sarah Wagenknecht membership in the AfD. |
The Slovakian non-governmental organization Globsec has analyzed why Ukraine is standing up to Russia - and what NATO can learn from it.
------------------------ The war in Ukraine has been raging for a year. Russia's quick victory, which the Kremlin had hoped for, failed to materialize. It is also clear that Ukraine will not give up - and will not allow itself to be taken over. That is the conclusion of a paper by the Slovak non-governmental organization Globsac, based in Bratislava. It has analyzed where Ukraine's steadfastness comes from and what NATO can learn from it. "Russia continues its war of aggression against Ukraine, but its forces are already defeated. In the face of Ukrainian resistance and the support of its allies, Russia has achieved almost none of its military objectives," says the paper, which included contributions from Nico Lange, former head of the management staff at the German Defense Ministry and now a lecturer in war studies at the University of Potsdam. "Obviously, Ukraine will prevail," conclude the authors, who include Carlo-Antonio Masala, professor of international politics at the University of the Armed Forces in Munich. The scholars list ten reasons why Russia will have no chance of defeating Ukraine even in the medium term. Two factors are key, Lange and his colleagues say: "Ukraine has involved the whole of society in defending its country," the paper says . In addition, the country has demonstrated "excellent military leadership capabilities." "Exceptional courage, creativity, amazing pragmatism and improvisational skills" have been at the "forefront of Ukraine's defense capability," he said. Militaries in NATO countries could learn from Ukraine, the scholars believe: 1. Ukraine involved the entire society in the defense of its country. NATO must learn from this, the researchers urge - and make basic military training and basic medical care accessible to the wider society. In addition, strategies must be developed to be able to draw on civilians in the event of war. This includes holding regular simulations and exercises at the local and regional level and forming defense groups. Local decision-makers such as mayors should also receive crisis and defense training. Digital infrastructures to quickly search for civilian data in an emergency would have to be created. 2 War is data-based - Ukraine has understood this. Full data access and Internet capability are crucial to winning a modern war, the study's authors conclude. Robust satellite links should facilitate strategic operations and enable faster deployments. Innovation and procurement of appropriate technologies should be encouraged, the paper adds. 3 Ukrainian armed forces often operate in decentralized networks - with success Unlike Russia with its hierarchical top-down structure, the Ukrainians have organized themselves into decentralized networks. This allows troops to respond - and act - more quickly to local conditions. Flexible and agile troops, trimmed for speed and adaptability, are needed. Instead of detailed military planning and tight hierarchical decision-making, militaries would have to coordinate and decide verbally more often. Network thinking and matrix structures instead of old patterns are necessary to be able to react quickly and efficiently to a war of aggression. For this, it must also be possible to transfer responsibility to non-commissioned officers. 4. Ukraine determines the battlefield through targeted attacks on logistics, command and control, and communications NATO and armed forces in Europe should improve the mobility of their armies, expand small and medium combat forces and train them accordingly to increase the speed and precision of their attacks: This is the only way to be superior to the overwhelming power of enemy forces, he said. 5. Ukrainians use drones en masse and for many purposes. The authors of the study recommend that European armed forces should also rely much more on the use of drones. This, they say, can be done by using commercial drones for military purposes - in addition to military drones. In addition, simple and low-cost drones would need to be developed to be less dependent on Chinese commercial drones. The military must be trained to use the drones, the researchers also urge. Investment in drone defense systems is also urgently needed, they add. 6. Ukrainian armed forces achieved major successes with small forces Infantry battalions for mobile combat operations need to be reintroduced. Training for urban warfare tactics and commando operations would be needed. The necessary equipment and production facilities for anti-tank, anti-aircraft and anti-drone operations would have to be built. In addition, the military needs more targeted training in how to dismantle enemy infantry. 7 Ukraine celebrates artillery renaissance NATO should do the same, the study's authors urge. Specifically, the researchers recommend deploying larger mobile artillery. Above all, production capacities for the necessary ammunition should be increased. Existing artillery should be more digitized and AI-controlled models should also be developed. Here, too, drones should be used for target acquisition and fire control. In addition, counter-attack defenses should be improved, he said. "Equip, train and practice to kill at high speed with maximum mobility and maximum precision" should be the goal to be prepared for ambush wars, he said. Stockpiles of munitions and the logistics behind them must be secured, the study adds. 8 Infrastructure such as rail transport is the backbone of the Ukrainian armed forces NATO and its member states should make commercial transport more crisis-proof: Extensive reserves of equipment, trained personnel, emergency repair capacity and stockpiles of spare parts should be created, the researchers advise. These should be financed by government crisis funds. This would include exercises to carry out such repairs at night and under realistic wartime conditions, the paper adds. 9 Strict secrecy and successful deception make the difference Here, too, NATO has some catching up to do in the authors' eyes and should intensify training under realistic conditions. Internal bureaucratic procedures would have to be simplified, and an institutional culture of broad participation and awareness would be necessary. The security of operations would have to be constantly weighed against civilian and parliamentary oversight. 10 Ukraine won the information war with the best stories NATO can do the same, the authors believe. To do so, the structure and content of strategic communications in the armed forces of NATO member states would have to be radically transformed. Media production capabilities would have to be expanded to produce much more high-quality content. This would include making faster decisions and granting greater freedom in communications. https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland...186794680.html ------------------- |
We will judge China by its actions, not by its statements, - Pistorius
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that China’s "peace plans" to end Russia’s war in Ukraine must be accompanied by appropriate actions. He said this in an interview with Deutschlandfunk, Censor.NET reports with reference to "Euro Integration". "The Chinese will not decide who will conduct the negotiations. I welcome the Chinese proposal, in particular as an initiative, but now there must be action. China is influencing Russia. When I hear reports - I don't know if this is true - that China is allegedly planning to supply Russia with drones -kamikaze at the same time as the presentation of the peace plan, I would suggest that we judge China by its actions, not by its statements. But, first of all, this is only a twelve-point document, and there should be more," Pistorius said. The minister also noted that he has no information that China is going to supply Russia with weapons. "If that's the case - I don't have any other information - it would be a depressing development that would certainly call into question the credibility of China. And it's unlikely to go along with a ceasefire proposal," he added. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402334 Leopard tanks are provided to Ukraine for defense, not offense against Russia, - Spanish Defense Minister Robles Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles said that Leopard tanks are being transferred to Ukraine only for defense, not for offensive operations. She said this in an interview with La Vanguardia, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to "European truth" "There are several series of Leopard: 2A4 and 2A6. The 2A4 tanks, which were stored in Zaragoza in deplorable conditions, are now being repaired. This will allow us to include them in the battalion along with tanks donated by other countries. At the same time, we have already started training the crews of these tanks and the teams that will be engaged in their maintenance. I insist a lot that the Leopards have an exclusive purpose: defense, not aggression against Russia," Robles said. She also ruled out the participation of the Spanish military in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. "This is an absolutely impossible scenario; it does not exist. Spanish soldiers would intervene only in case of aggression against a NATO country. Never, never, not a single soldier from a NATO country, and Spain is one of them, will go to participate in the war in Ukraine. Never, never. I want to say this very clearly, very clearly," the Minister said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402353 |
US will never recognize occupation of Crimea - State Department
The U.S. State Department reiterated that it has not and will never recognize Russia’s claim of annexation of Crimea and welcomed the efforts of the Crimean Platform, which reminds the world of the occupation of the peninsula. This is stated in the оfficial statement of State Department "Crimea is Ukraine," released on Sunday, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to Ukrinform. "Nine years ago, Russia invaded Ukraine and seized Crimea, in violation of international law, Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity," the statement reads. In this regard, it is emphasized that the United States "welcomes the efforts of the Ukrainian Crimean Platform", which focuses the attention of the international community on the continuation of the Russian occupation. "The United States does not and will never recognize Russia's claimed annexation of the peninsula. Crimea is Ukraine," the U.S. Department of State emphasized. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402354 Russia offered Iran help with missile program in exchange for weapons, - CIA chief Burns Today, on February 26, CIA Director William Burns said that there is evidence that Russia offered to help Iran with its missile program in exchange for military assistance. The CIA director noted that the alliance between Russia and Iran is developing rapidly, and he called this narrative "disturbing", reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to RBC-Ukraine. "It's moving quite rapidly in a very dangerous direction right now, in the sense that we know that the Iranians have already provided the Russians with hundreds of armed drones that they are using to inflict pain on Ukrainian civilians. We know they have provided ammunition for artillery and tanks," Burns said. He said that the CIA also sees signs that Russia is offering to help the Iranians with their missile program and is at least considering providing fighter jets to Iran in exchange for military assistance in their invasion. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3402356 |
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