At 00:05:30 ff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUiSb2JrZ0A

Thats another way to say what I said in #46 and gave a link to an animnated map gif there. It simply is misleading when politicians claim that half of the Russian territorial gains have been retaken by Ukraine. I explained it in #46, its just the in-and-out of Russia in the first two months of the invasion, February and March 2022, and Ukrain'S kick-back answer in April 2022. Since then, not much has happened anymore.


In a way the statement "they took back half of what Russia has conquered" tries to paint a picture of today with colours from one and a half year ago. That is misleading for sure.

Try going further back to #38

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...7&postcount=38

Oh, the tricky part is that the statement that 50% of the territories that have been conquered have been liberated again might well be true if one makes a simple graphical estimate of the territorial gains and losses since February 2022, as is given here:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/F...e_animated.gif

Yes, roughly it looks to me as if it are 50% Ukraine has taken back.

The point is that the Russians' dramatic losses all concern the beginning of the invasion in February to April 2022, while today the 50% statement is used to give the impression that there have also been major Ukrainian successes in the 14 months since, and that the momentum of a year and a half ago still exists today.

It doesn't. It hasn't for a long time.

But maybe you're building ahead and preparing Ukrainians for a defeat by telling them, "We can't go any further, but at least we've won back 50%. Thats not everything, but it's something."

If you continue a war - with great self-destruction - for which you are not well enough prepared to win, then sooner or later the question of the moral legitimacy of continuing this war also arises at some point. In view of Putin's announcement that he intends to commit genocide, the seriousness of this concern is reduced, but since Putin must have realized that he will not be able to carry through his plans, at some point pragmatism on both sides will force the end of the current arms struggle. One does not want to call this peace, it is only a deep breath before the next war.

2024 or 2025, I think, will see the end of the current round.

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR - UKRAINE CANNOT WIN THIS WAR
 

DOUGLAS MACGREGOR - UKRAINE CANNOT WIN THIS WAR: IT'S TIME TO NEGOTIATE WITH PUTIN

https://www.bitchute.com/video/kdCyzGao5MFH/

https://www.hostpic.org/images/2307252027050096.png

^^ The question is also:
Is Russia capable to win the war ?

Well not without help it seems like
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRK6...tVeteranReacts

Markus

Russia and all those who support war crimes must be feeling pretty proud of themselves right now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eb7IBGraHQg

Big win? This is the scene of the big win, I put a 1km-circle around it to give an impression of scale.


https://i.postimg.cc/pLzFQzwc/Unbenannt.png



Now I wonder how much the Ukrainains had to pay for this big win. The territorial gain is not impressive. How much did it take them? Because that cost they had to pay is what influences the war much more than this small strip of land.

Dont get me wrong, I do not mean to talk Ukrainian efforts down. But I react increasingly allergic to this constant glorious propaganda and reality-contorting rhetoric. And we have enough interview snippets with Ukrainian soldiers at the front that clearly indicate they dont give dirt for this propaganda thunder at all, and see a different reality on the ground.

Bakhmut does not count, its just about two growling egos. What counts is Melitopol and the coast south of it, this is where the fate of this offensive is decided. If they could take Melitopol, then Russia would get extremely serious strategic problems on the operational level. But they are still 60km and three heavily fortified defence lines away from that city. But Bakhmut...?! Bakhmut is just political symbolism. No strategic relevance whatever.

Shoigu is in North Korea.

One can assume Xi is not amused.