Skybird |
06-17-09 03:56 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by CastleBravo
(Post 1119310)
Does anyone think that Israel will deal democracy at the end of its military? Mr. Obama has been openly backing away from Israel. Is this the sign of a pre-emptive strike?
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not yet, but maybe at soime time in the future. However, I give that no chances to destroy the program (just to delay it a bit), as long as it is no nuclear strike. check the demographic development in Israel, and the ethnic structure of it's population. Assess the to be expected inner rebellion in Israel if they deliver a preemptive nuclear strike. Go figure. I don't think that scenario is very likely. So we will see a nuclear armed Iran sooner or later, or we will see a failed conventional war/strike/operation - and a nuclear armed Iran not sooner but a bit later.
Considering the Western dependance on Muslim oil it is unlikely that the Western powers would attack Iran'S nuclear research and constuction sites with nukes. MOABs, air-absorbing megabombs and cave buster are however useless if you do not have precise target coordinates to hit the armored subterranean sites inside the huge compounds. To know there is an area 15x25 km in size, is one thing. To know where the entrance to the hidden laboratory or factory is on that areal so that a conventional bomb has at least a chance to penetrate at the entrance - that is somethign different. you would need several hundred MOABs to clusterbomb the nuclear research facility sites in a manner that you can assume to have done at least some damage. Even the heaviest bomb dropped from the hi9ghest altitude penetrates the ground only some meter for reasons of elemantary physics. And when it explodes it may still be meter away from the subterranea shelters that are hardened by 1-3 meters or more of steel concrete. If you use 100 MOABs in just one site (assuming you produce them in such quantities), why would anyone assume that they would do less damage to human life on the ground, than a limited nuclear strike would do? I think to make that distinction is sentimental, but irrational.
I do not say i like nukes dropped on iran. I do not like that at all, nor do I think right now already is the time. What I say is that if their is a military strike, I do not consider a conventional strike to be sufficient to achieve the mission objective. You have to make a decision then. The price for bringing the Iranian weapon program to destruction is so and so high - either you are willing to pay that price, or not. How desperately does the West want Iran having no nukes? - i think not desperately enough. I prepare for a future seeing a nuclear armed iran, therefore. and that will have most unpleasant consequences first in the region, and a bit later around the whole world.
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