The sanctions imposed after 2014 have not weakened but dramatically improved Russia's economic autarky. Financially Russia is not weaker but stronger, MUCH stronger, today than it was before 2014.

Because Russia did a trick nobody seemed to have expected. It adapted.

Those who believe in sactions now still make the same old mistake that I curse about since years: they still see and judge Russia not by the specific characteristics of Russia, but their own Western standards and opinions. And these do not match with Russia. And nenver will.

The West is so weak by now that it has no other illusion left than sanctions and law codes to "deter" :haha: or "contain" :har: Russia.

Taiwan is next. There is no credible deterrance.

I'm without words-Don't know what to write about the situation in Ukraine right now-Following the news closely.

Markus

Russia claims Ukraines air defence has been neutralized.. Ukrainian TV shown radars broken and out of action. Could the new hypersonic weapons have been used?

Fox News had someone on who said exactly this. Russia has closely observed US and NATO doctrine through the last two decades, how the west responds to events in the world. At the same time it has passed the west in many tecnologies, cyber, electronic warfare, missile tech, etc. This is well calculated.

Russian troops stand in the Northern area of Kiev, apparently a pince-attack from the Western and Eastern shore of the Dnjpr lake north of the city.



All Ukrainian air defences, the Russians claim, are down.
Advances to Mariupol.



Tanks from the Crimean seem to advance towards Odessa, both moves seal off the coast, and prepare landing of amphibious reinforcements.



Small detachments of forces west of Kiev, from Belarus, seem to drop southwards, sealing off the Ukraine's West against Western nations.


Heck this runs exactly like I predicted before the Olympics. Markus said he fears an attack on February 20th back then. I said I expect it in the time window after the olympics and before end of the month. All the moves I described in advance, and the Russians do it, precisely.


Its frustrating. I dispise our leaders, indefinitely.

Yeah, but what can they do?

Yes. Putin may live in his own world, but he has still traits that make him superior to his Western counterparts:
He calculates cool and competently and in absolutely cold blood: no morals hinder him, no remorse.
He is disciplined.
He prepares.
He learns from both his own and our mistakes. Just that he rarely makes mistakes.
He has a long perspectives, over one and two decades. Pastience our leaders do not have.

This would have commanded utmost caution, alertness and respect (in then meaning of taking him as the threat that he always has been). And I always paid him that respect, becauue I think since always his competence makes him extremely dangerous. Instead, our leaders ignored him, played the threat down, laughed, and did not count the years further beyond than the next elections.

Putin may live in his own world. But within this framework he is absolutely consistent. There never was an excuse not to take him serious, not to take him by his words. All what is happenign now he already has hinted at many years ago! Georgia. Crimea, Syria, Donbass, Luhansk, it all falls into a chronological, consistent line, reaching back to 2006, 2007, when NATO offered perspectives for NATO memberships to Georgia and the Ukraine.


I admit I myself also did not always take him as serious with all this as we should have. But still I always still was far ahead of our leaders, this I claim for myself. My misjudgements were by far not as all-embracing than theirs. I paid Putin often respect, but only on a technical level, for the skill he showed in pushing his plans, never did I agree with his intentions and motives. Trump also expresses respect for him: but also that he admires him, and wants to be like him, wants to be a big bad boy himself, thats what makes him so disgusting. His competence as an enemy manouvering his pieces on the chess board commanded to respect him as that competent opponent. But many in the West ignored his competence, and snuggled up to him because they did not take him serious. This fatal flaw I never made. There is a huge difference between taking an enemy serious, and liking him.

I assume from now on they will pay respect to him, yes...?

Has the Ukrainian air force stood down? Claim is all airbases are out or action. Did they even have a chance to respond? Little footage has been released of any clashes directly.


Massive gridlock out of Kiev:
https://tinyimg.io/i/KvYn9EV.png

The American intelligence says that Russia will have taken Ukraine by Friday morning(local time)
In some Danish article it says the war may go on for month.

So who's correct here ?

We can also expect millions of refugees from Ukraine.

Markus

Look at the numbers of both air forces. I cannot imagine the Ukraine air force ever had a realistic chance. And radars have been taken out. I cannot imagine they still can fly anything. All air bases are claimed by the Russians to have been taken out. I think that is a realistic and believable claim, since the Ukraines air defence network was very weak from beginning on.

Unfortunately the Ukraine has gotten only small numbers of shpuderpad SAMs, and these also do not offer reach to shoot down high flying bombers. After 2014 the Ukriane has beefed up its defen ces and its army is severla times as striong as back the, but compared to the Russians it still sees all odds overwhelmingly against it.

Partisan warfare might be the way to go. That it wins, is uncertain, though, but it can mount the blood toll - though on both sides.

Take a look at this site:


https://censor.net/



https://censor-net.translate.goog/?_..._x_tr_pto=wapp

https://censor-net.translate.goog/ua..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Putin must avoid that the mood at home turns against the war. His priority is to blitz the war through to its intended objectives. How long it will last? His plan says: a couple of days, not longer. If possible.



But:


He made it clear he wants to rearrange the security and peace order in Europe. In other words, he wants to reastablish the borders of the Warsaw Pact era. Obviously he must then attack the Baltic states, Poland, Hungary, Slovenia, too.



Maybe he will pause a little when he got all Ukraine. But I think all the mentioned states now are at risk. And that is a very realistic threat, and realistic scenario. Markus said it early on. He is right.



I hope and pray that it does not become true.



Europe's political priorities must dramatically shift from political correctness agendas and CO2 tables and such, to defence, defence, defence and defence again. This is the priority of the moment, and forseeable future. Europes willingness todefend itself is in a terrible state, its capabilties to do so are in a mess, the weakness is dramatic and life-threatening, and an open invitation for Putin. What we have in combat forces must focus on the East, and must get relocated there. It will be little enough. Only then we stand a chance to deter him. For the americans it is even more complicated, they must, if they do not want to get kicked out of Europe, bring back significant reinforcements to Europe while at the same time maintaining a believable deterrance to China.Tricky. They claimed they have the ability to fight two huge wars simultaneously, but that is an echo from the past - I believe it when I see it these days. As I see it, they fall behind since years.Just look at the disrupted supply chains, globally, and count out platform numbers.

Our financial system will become disrupted sooner or later, causing havoc for our social systems and the communal cohesion of our states. Another weapon of hybrid war. And I am quite certain this has already been taken into account by Putin: if I can that - why shouldn't he?

He is 70. Maybe he dies. Or there is a revolt in his own inner circle. It is said his won staffers are against the war, and only obey due to fear. But then - how many assassination attempts were survived by Hitler? Dozens?

From the news feed on censor-net. Battles are raging.

https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/...einmarsch.html

There's a video on the site, and farther below a chart. They are attacking all over Ukraine.
Probably they will take Transnistria and Moldawa, too.


Edit: lot of jets over Hannover