SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - A new slant on RIMPAC Naval politics/The Fight To Control The South China Sea

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As has already been explained to the world by China, they would not and do not recognise the decision...

Quote:

"China's territorial sovereignty and marine rights in the South China Sea will not be affected by the so-called Philippines South China Sea ruling in any way," said Chinese President Xi Jinping.
He said China was "determined to maintain peace and stability" and was committed to resolving disputes "through negotiations based on respects to historical facts and according to international laws".
China's state news agency Xinhua said that "as the panel has no jurisdiction, its decision is naturally null and void".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-36771749

So what next, similar sanctions as those used against Russia over Crimea?

Here's a bit of disturbing reading from the Chinese News Service three years ago:

http://info.wenweipo.com/index.php?a...s-itemid-62404

But since only a handful of people here can read Mandarin (and I'm not one of them), here's a summary:

http://www.ibtimes.com/china-engage-...rnment-chinese

When I heard this earlier today and the Chinese response I couldn't help thinking

If an ordinary person gets some injunction he or she better follow them or those. If your are a country a superpower like China you can decline these injunction and keep on with your business.

When will the other countries in that area draw a line in the sand/water and say enough back down ?

Of course they will not do this if they hadn't USA backing them up.

The Future of American politics will decide how much USA will engage in that area-That is - What will the next President of USA prioritize what foreign policy concerns
Markus

What they should or want do - and what they can do, are two different things, mapuc.

We are talking about a major scale war between two of the three most powerful military powers on this planet. Plus additional powers.

And yes, if things slide very badly, it can turn into a nuclear exchange.

It's a tricky one, because they clearly want to flex their muscles in the Eastern Pacific, but they're still racing to catch up with the US in terms of naval power, which limits quite a bit of their territorial ambitions, particularly in regards to Taiwan and the South China Sea.
At some point there will come a time when the PLAN will be ready to take on the USN, I doubt it'll be this side of 2020, but it is going to happen.
By this point Japan will have militarised, and it will be racing to produce a nuclear weapon, it won't take Japan long to make one, it has the facilities in place, and at this point things start to get very complicated and the likelihood of nuclear war gets very near to 1, because although the US might be reluctant to go nuclear on events on the other side of the Pacific, to the Japanese it's on their doorstep and they are under no pretenses that given half the chance the PRC would flatten Japan and feel no remorse about it.
At this point, if Japan and the PRC exchange, then depending on who fired first, the US may well decide to switch to tactical weapons to hit PLAN fleets and facilities, the PRC will probably retaliate by nuking Hawaii, and we're vaulting up the escalation ladder towards a bad conclusion.

There are a lot of factors, and to be honest the scenario above is a bad case scenario (although they seem to be the rage in 2016) and the PRC may well decide to bring Taiwan in through a less militaristic approach, because to be honest, invading Taiwan will not be an easy task for the PRC, not even on the other side of 2020, and the last thing the PRC wants to do is to capture a burning wreck of an island which will sink their economy to try to fix it. If they can take Taiwan with all of its economy intact then that will be much better for them, and it's a route they're far more likely to try to take, unless...of course...someone pushes them into a corner.

If the Chinese economy should tank, if some kind of trade war breaks out which China loses, it may decide to take the military option in order to provide a war for the people to rally around, or the ruling government may be replaced by one that is more willing to use military force to solve the Taiwan issue. Either way, pushing China into a corner....not wise.

I think that if given the option not to go to war, then they would choose it, but if there is more to gain through war, then China will go to war.

Hey i thought lines got drawn...in the sand!???

JUST to clarify the present situation:x::woot:http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/i...0712132040.jpg

Quote:

The judges have spoken: China has no legal basis for its claims to sovereignty over the South China Sea. China's "nine-dash line" territorial claims, which cover most of the South China Sea, will not be recognised under international law.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...105126859.html

Money is the sinews of war...or territorial expansion

^MY god! your citing from Aljazeera...and driving a truck! (that's not Nice!):k_confused:MODERATOR!:O: oh wait a sec....

Quote:

The views expressed in this article are the author's own (Salvatore Babones http://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/ima...a29f368a_6.jpg) and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.

:know: http://www.aljazeera.com/profile/salvatore-babones.html of particular interest for China's big island push imho:

Quote:

It doesn't take an advanced degree in mathematics to figure out that if budget commitments are growing at double-digit rates while the economy is growing at single-digit rates, something has to give. (every other country's fishing rights!!??:ping:) That something is the fiscal deficit. China is going into debt - in a serious way.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/01/china-economic-crisis-coming-160111090000623.html OH god! now I'm quoting Al Jazeera too!:woot:

I think the fundamental question that must now be asked is....who and what is anyone going to do about it?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbuna (Post 2419420)

I think the fundamental question that must now be asked is....who and what is anyone going to do about it?

I suspect that the cork in the Chinese bottle will be Taiwan and the US will go in at some point in its customary style; In the guise of a 'coalition', actually an old Roman political ploy-tactic, with VietNam as a very strong ally. She has defeated China previously and is a barrier to the south. http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?p=2419335#post2419335 All the nations in the region from Japan and South Korea around to an increasingly aggressive India, wealthy Brunei, form a necessary geographic barrier to Sino expansion... Not unlike England's own unique geographical position astride the European continent and the major navigable river outlets to the North Sea and beyond.

Not under Obamas watch and I suspect Clintons either but Trump....anything could happen.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbuna (Post 2419694)

Not under Obamas watch and I suspect Clintons either but Trump....anything could happen.

China is not in love with Clinton:http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKCN0ZR2MN

In 2010, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton provoked outrage in Beijing when she pushed the South China Sea to the top of the regional and U.S. security agendas.

Quote:

Combined with her tough line on human rights and role in leading President Barack Obama's Asia "rebalancing", Clinton is well-known in China - but not well liked.

While presidential rival Donald Trump has irritated Beijing with comments such as comparing the U.S. trade deficit with China to rape, he is largely an unknown quantity, a person who even privately officials shrug their shoulders over.

"Clinton will be a difficult partner," one senior Chinese diplomatic source told Reuters, having just admitted to not knowing much about Trump or what he stands for.

THe latest outrage IT"S simply 'unpresidented'

http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc...g?v=1481927397

Quote:

The Chinese government has previously accused the U.S. of overdramatizing the situation in the South China Sea as a pretext to build up defenses of the U.S. and its allies in the region.
The U.S. has denied those accusations, arguing earlier this year that China has heightened tension in the region by reclaiming more than 3,200 acres of land in parts of the South China Sea over the previous two years and using “coercive tactics short of armed conflict” to assert power in the region.
The U.S. regularly sends ships and surveillance aircraft through the South China Sea on what the Pentagon describes as “freedom-of-navigation operations,” designed to signal that the waters should remain open to all.
At times, those operations have led to tension with the Chinese military, which regularly intercepts U.S. planes and ships, sometimes in a way the Pentagon has deemed unsafe or unprofessional. But the Chinese seizure this week of U.S. equipment marks an escalation the U.S. military so far hasn’t seen.

Quote:

The Bowditch was about to recover the glider when a Chinese Dalang III class Chinese warship approached within 500 yards of the Bowditch, launched a small vessel and snatched the drone out of the water, the Pentagon said. The Pentagon said the drone is known as an “ocean glider” and valued at approximately $150,000, one of many the U.S. Navy uses around the world to collect bathymetric data from the sea, along with data on the water’s salinity, temperature and current flow. Bright yellow and about 5 to 10 feet long, the drones often move slowly and autonomously to gather data about the ocean for weeks or months before U.S. Navy ships retrieve them. "The UUV was lawfully conducting a military survey in the waters of the South China Sea," one official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"It's a sovereign immune vessel, clearly marked in English not to be removed from the water - that it was U.S. property," the official said. https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/...1216191354.jpg
The boat brought the device back to the Chinese warship, which then headed away.
The Bowditch contacted the Chinese vessel by radio and demanded the return of the glider. The Chinese ship acknowledged the radio transmission but ignored the request to return it, the Pentagon said.
China’s Defense Ministry says it will return the U.S. Navy underwater drone it captured operating in international waters in the South China Sea, after it seized the device to ensure the “safe navigation of passing ships.”

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2016/12/17/china-returns-us-drone-after-explaining-seizure/95555610/ Shades of VP Dan Quail(he couldn't spell either)

Quote:

"China steals United States Navy research drone in international waters - rips it out of water and takes it to China in unprecedented act," Trump said in an early morning tweet.
Trump originally misspelled “unprecedented” as "unpresidented" but later deleted the tweet and reposted.

Well we got our drone back....they need to confiscate his tweeter! his misuse of it has been...unpresidented:03:

Three question popped up in my head when I heard about this

1. Why did the Chinese steal this underwater drone ?
Could it be,
2. This drone came close to something which the Chinese didn't want others to see ?
or
3. They are just curious in how this drone is constructed and want to "borrow" some ideas

Markus

Most likely reason is that they (Chinese) want to stamp their authority on an area that is being hotly contested.

On the positive note - we sighned some documents with Japan over Kurils, easing the tensions.

Latest development

Quote:

China is stepping up preparedness for a possible military conflict with the US as the Donald Trump presidency has increased the risk of hostilities breaking out, state media and military observers said.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplo...ry-conflict-us

Markus

^ At the present time that contest would look like David v Goliath.

Yes 'David'...a common enough name in the USA