I really cannot understand your logic Neon. To make any sense out of your on going posts that Hillary is going to win the DN one can only but assume that you are one of those voters who no matter what evidence is brought to the contrary you will support her.

For example. Mookiemookie posts a link to an article where the question could just as easily be put to you: " Go ahead and say, if you like, that Hillary Clinton retains a serious chance of winning the Democratic nomination. If you say this, however, youmust describe a set of circumstances whereby this could happen. Try not to make it sound like a fairy tale."

You don't challenge a single statement in that article. Your only response is to post a link to an article by Bonnie Erbe who writes inter alia:

"Obama's first self-destructive act was his secretly recorded remarks before wealthy San Francisco donors describing working-class white voters as "bitter" and "clinging" to guns and religion. That remark cost him dearly in the Pennsylvania primary among Roman Catholics and working-class whites."

It appears lost on Bonnie Erbe that Obama never was going to win PA. What he did do, and set out to do, was cut her double digit advantage to a singledigit. 2 weeks out she was running a 23 point lead. She won by 9 points, contrary to what the MSM will have you believe that she won by 10.

She further writes.

"Obama's second act of self-immolation was his delay in denouncing a man who blames whites for creating the AIDS virus to wipe out people of color and calls America a terrorist nation. Obama's denunciation of Wright yesterday and the time it took him to sever ties to Wright may well end up costing Obama large portions of the rest of the white voting demographic.We may soon start to see the defection from his campaign of superdelegate support."

Well, well, well. Here is the lie to her statement. Not only did more SD's endorse OB after his denouncement but one who had originally endorsed Hillary anulled his endorsement of her and moved his endorsement to OB because he thought Obama had handled himself pretty well in distancing himself from Wright.

But this is the statement that Erbe writes in her article that really takes the cake.

"As soon as polls start to show the extent of alienation Obama has produced among white Democratic voters, superdelegates won't be far behind. If Obama does not carry North Carolina next week by double digits, he will be in serious trouble. Look for calls by party leaders for him to drop out if his victory in North Carolina is not convincing."

In the above, change 'Obama' for 'Hillary', 'white' for 'black', and 'NC' for 'PA' and you have the exact same argument that was levelled against Hillary prior to PA. The difference was that that argument COULD be made because he WAS ahead in pledged delegates, in popular vote, in states won AND his campaign was not bankrupt!

But to get back to your own arguments. You state that Hillary must get the vote because polls show her doing better against McCain than OB. For you to have any credibility in your own statement you must tell me that you were in support of OB when polls showed him as winning against McCain. As far as I can tell, you have been against OB regardless. But I stand corrected if you can show me otherwise.

On your argument that Florida and Michigan have been dealt a bum deal and voters will stay away in their droves if OB gets the nomination. Does your argument then not also apply should Hillary get the nomination and all OB supporters in Florida and Michigan feel they got shafted?

And, much as you might want to think that the African American support base within the Democratic party is a given, believe me, as TDK104 has pointed out, shaft them and you might just as well go and get a set of keys cut for the front door of the White House for McCain to carry around in his pocket till January.

I would also add that if you want to blame someone for the Florida and Michigan fiasco then look no futher that Howad Dean. It was Dean and the DNC who set the rules here, and it's funny how Hillary had no problem with it at all until she strated losing. Then her true colors showed and she wanted the DNC position ammended.

Tuesday is crucial. Sadly, if she wins Indiana, it will be all her ego needs for her to continue a futile race. For me, the best possible outcome to Tueday's votes would be for the SDs to stand up and be counted. Whoever wins those two races, I wish the remaining SDs would cast their votes and let the chips fall where they may.

*Apparently* there's a rake of House and Senate SD's who have already decided to support Obama, but are holding off on an announcement until the primaries are over.
I keep reading this, but it's hard to tell if it's campaign posturing or actual news.

Hillary could get some momentum going if she was to do particularly well in the Tuesday primaries, but even if some of the SDs were swayed her way, it would never be the 70 percent swing that she needs. This farce would just stumble on to Denver where she would then be voted out of the race, having destroyed any chance for a Democratic victory in November.

I find it a bit odd people claiming Obama closed the gap in PA when behind in the polls by more than 20 points

I get various accounts when this took place

2 weeks before and 8 weeks before seem to be the preference among the two people who supplied that info

According to RCP:

In the 8th week before the PA election the polls showed 9 point avg difference.

2 weeks before the elections the poll average was 7 points

And the last recorded Pa avg was 6.1 %

So Obama outspent Clinton 2 to 1 and went nowhere in the process.

Clinton won by 9.28 %

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...imary-240.html

I also find curious that people claim objectivity when supplying this info.

Clinton was always going to win PA. Her own people were predicting a healthy double digit win right up to the primary. Obama was hoping to cut her lead to single digits...well, he just about did that. She'll do the same to him in NC. I think he'll win there...but only by about 4 points.

But, anyone can do the math here. Look at the remaining primaries and allocate the most probable outcome, but favor Hillary. Then add a healthy win for Clinton in Florida and either make Michigan a wash or give her a 5 point victory. The best case scenario for her still has him about 120 delegates ahead when it's all over. Now factor in the remaining SDs....she'll need about 70 percent of them to win.

Unless there is a new scandal even bigger than the 'Wright' scandal, Hillary simply can't win.

If Obama won against John McCain, Hillary would probably still be campaigning!

You could be right about NC being a four point swing.

I have noticed that after edwards dropped the polls have been about 2 points off the average in favor of Clinton.

So mombo jumbo crystal ball wise it could be obama +5 in NC and Clinton +8 in Indiana.

Of course NC has a lot of African American voters and the pollsters were way off in South Carolina. This might be offset because Edwards is not on the ballot this time tho.

What could end it this week would be if Obama crushes Clinton in NC and wins Indiana.

Zogby's latest poll shows Obama by 2 in Indiana and 9 in NC.

Zogby's numbers have an ally. Momentum and Gallop.

Gallop daily shows Obama has reversed Clintons lead with democrats today and now leads by four.

As I said earlier, NEON, I just wish the SDs would end this nonsense. Everything about these candidates is known. With every day that passes, McCain's chances in November improve.

On Tuesday, Obama will narrowly win in NC and I believe that Hillary will win in Indiana. This nip/tuck process goes nowhere. What are rhe SDs waiting for? If they honestly believe that Hillary should be the nominee, then step up to the plate and vote for her. If they think that they should respect the popular vote, then vote for Obama.

As a SD, what is to be gained by waiting to cast your vote?

A poll conducted 11th through to the 13th April by the American Research Group showed Hillary leading Obama by 20 points in PA.

Now that's funny!!! And not too far off the truth! :D

Oh ok then

A poll conducted in the same week showed Clinton ahead by 3%. So using your own reasoning then I will say this.

Two weeks before the PA primary Clinton was only up by 3% according to a Los Angeles Times Poll but Clinton won PA by 9% thus she increased her lead 3 times despite being outspent by Obama 2 to 1.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

:p :p :p

Well SDs are moving. I just would like to see some more coverage when it happens.

Everyone has heard the Clinton SD jumping ship this past week.

But has everyone seen these 6 in the last week?

SD endorsements for Clinton since 4/29/08

5/5 Democrats abroad SD Theresa Morelli

5/3 Maryland SD Kathleen Kennedy Townsend

5/2 Texas SD and DNC member Jaime A. Gonzalez Jr.

4/30 Pennsylvania SD Bill George the President of the AFL-CIO

4/30 Puerto Rico SD and Democratic Committee Vice Chair Luisette Cabañas

4/29 North Carolina SD and Governor Mike Easley

Compare it to a horse race Neon. The commentators tell you how the horse up front is doing - not the one at the back. When Clinton gets more SD endorsements in a week than OB does, then maybe the MSM will give coverage.

*** The weekend in delegates: Obama picked up four superdelegates over the weekend, to Clinton’s net of zero. Obama got the backing of New Mexico Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colon and three add-on superdelegates -- former Maryland Gov. Parris Glendening, former South Carolina Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum and Guam add-on Jamie Paulino (after Obama won the Pacific island territory by seven votes). Paulino beat out Clinton backer Cecilia Mafnas, who was previously the vice chair and counted into our superdelegate count. Evening things out, Clinton picked up the other Maryland add-on: former Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. Obama is also expected to pick up the three Illinois add-on superdelegates today around 2:00 pm after the Illinois Democratic Party’s committee meets to officially name the trio. (Note: The Obama campaign announced Kalyn Free of Oklahoma as another super, but we’d already had her on the list as an Obama supporter.) The Delegate Counts: SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 273-254; PLEDGED: Obama 1,492-1,338; OVERALL: Obama 1,746-1,611. There are 268 undeclared superdelegates. Since the Pennsylvania primary: It's Obama +17, Clinton +11; Since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5: It's Obama +84, Clinton +13; Since Junior Super Tuesday, March 4: It's Obama +41, Clinton +20.

The New York Times has a Delegate Calculator. If the percentages for the remaining States fall in line with the percentage results so far, then the NYT states that Hillary will need 78 percent of the remaining Super Delegates to win.

Now, realistically, she will do well in Indiana, and she will have success getting the Florida and Michigan Delegates seated. This will certainly help her, but it's not nearly enough.

The very best case scenario for her with the remaining States will leave her needing about 70 percent of the remaining SDs in my view.

He nearly beat her in Indiana ( 51/49)and he beat the pants off her in NC. It's over. Over the coming weeks, you're going to see SD after SD lining up behind Obama. Hillary will push as hard as possible for the Florida and Michigan votes to be counted, but even if she got her way there, which she won't, it still wouldn't be enough.

I wonder how long it will take her to put her party before her ego? I notice that she was begging for money again in her 'victory' speech. Pitiful!

It actually reads better when you make the win of hers in Indiana more precise TDK1044: 50.9 Hillary, 49.1 Obama. It was a squeek. Notice she has already loaned her campaign another 6 million odd. This win and squeek by Obama now makes Florida and Michigan irrelevant. The results today also totally undermine her arguments that he cannot win big/swing states; that he has not got the fight to go against McCain - Obama has this last few weeks been to hell and back with Wright, bitter remark, but still comes back and knocks the crap out of her. Can't wait to see what Carville says about this. Oh, and lets not forget her other argument, the popular vote. Again, give her the votes in Florida and Michigan and he still wipes her clock. She is on life support. She has cancelled all morning show appointments and is meeting with SD. I predict that SD are going to come over to OB to give him his nomination total by not later than mid next week. Good on you OB:D

Yeah. The faster the SDs line up behind Obama, the faster this will be over. Dragging this on until June is a total waste of time.

You want it to be over now. Now is what you want. You dont want it to get to West Virginia, KY and Puerto Rico. Obama's best chance to end it early has a one week time frame to it.

She'll win KY, WV and PR, and in doing so she'll gain about as many delegates as he just won in North Carolina....maybe a few more because of Puerto Rico. He currently has a lead of 159 delegates and he'll take the other remaining States negating most of the gains she makes.

The fact of the matter is that many senior Democrats are just waiting for Hillary to do the honorable thing, but because there is nothing at all honorable about Hillary, she'll continue to put her ego before the needs of her party until they get to the point where they force her out of the race.

Michigan has now asked the DNC to sit 59 Delegates for Hillary and 59 for Obama, so she gets nothing there. She'll get a small bump when they seat the Florida Delegates and then it will be over.