JSLTIGER |
10-22-06 04:04 PM |
I'd wish I'd seen this thread before all of the discussion. :cry:
Regardless, my views on the articles:
The ideas presented in the article itself are technically relatively sound. The problem with the theories of bringing down the US hard, is that the entire world would be impacted. The problem with the articles is that they ignore the effect of globalization and the impact of the US on the world.
Attempting to destroy the US economy by causing a run on the dollar is at the very least impractical. If the dollar collapsed, it would take with it many of the other currencies around the world, as many nations receive supplements in aid from the US. Furthermore, if the US collapsed, the Chinese would lose a market for many of their goods, as many Americans would be unable to afford the goods, however low-cost they may be.
Iran hasn't and won't cut off the oil shipments to America because they're making a fortune off of the oil money they receive. The only situations that I could see that would cause the Iranians reacting in that manner would be an immenent attack on them by the US (which, lets face it, is not about to happen), or the immenent conversion of the majority of US power to hydrogen or alternative-based fuels. As the biggest user of oil the world has ever known, the US provides Iran with substantial income, thus its not in their interests to harm the US's purchases of oil. It is, however, in their interests to raise the price of oil, which they've managed to do quite effectively in the last months by raising the tensions of the region and presenting the possibility of blocking the Gulf.
The bottom line is that the US is simply too big and the world too interconnected for a collapse of the US economy not to negatively impact the remainder of the world. Does that mean that a US collapse cannot happen? Of course not. But the world is deluded if it believes that it would escape unscathed by the collapse of an economic power with a GDP of $12.5 trillion (approximately 1.5 times larger than China, the world's number two). Keep in mind that the inverse is also true. Were China to collapse, than the US would be feeling the pain from that as well.
|