mookiemookie |
11-04-10 10:40 AM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainHaplo
(Post 1529002)
Mookie:
"In monetary economics, the quantity theory of money is the theory that money supply has a direct, proportional relationship with the price level."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantity_theory_of_money
"The quantity theory of money states that there is a direct relationship between the quantity of money in an economy and the level of prices of goods and services sold"
"Another way to understand this theory is to recognize that money is like any other commodity: increases in its supply decrease marginal value (the buying capacity of one unit of currency). So an increase in money supply causes prices to rise (inflation) as they compensate for the decrease in money’s marginal value."
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/05/010705.asp
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Exactly my point. Money supply size has a bearing on inflation, but it is not in and of itself inflation. You cannot have higher sustained levels of prices (inflation) without velocity. An increase in the money supply alone is not inflation. If they printed up a million tons of $100 bills and locked it away in a vault 100 miles underground, would you argue there was inflation? Would the very existence of that million tons of money have any bearing on the money in your wallet? Or the price of bread at the store? No, of course not. It's as if it doesn't exist. Or, think of it this way. Would the existence of gold on a planet a billion light years from Earth affect the price of gold here today? Without velocity, there cannot be inflation. Without access to money, there cannot be velocity. Without wage inflation or banks willing to loosen credit standards, there cannot be increased access to money.
Quote:
Printing money to "buy" something - in this case injecting it into the stock market where it will change hands rapidly - aka your velocity argument (as investments, gains and losses will continually happen with it), will end up with a final result of 600 Billion more dollars with no backing being in circulation - thus lessening the real or percieved value of the dollar as it stands today. Lessen the worth of the dollar, and prices rise to compensate and equate to the old value of the goods. Thus, prices rise. Which equals inflation.
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Whoa, whoa, whoa, back the truck up. You misunderstand exactly what's happening here. The money is not being injected into the stock market. The Fed is buying Treasury securities from banks. That has the effect of injecting money into the banking system, not the stock market. The idea is that with more money, banks will be more willing to lend, as the credit system is how money is effectively "created". My question is how are banks going to get this money into the hands of consumers, when they're unwilling to lend and credit is in low demand or inaccessible? This is what's known as a liquidity trap. A liquidity trap occurs when there's a breakdown in the effectiveness of monetary policy. Adding more money to the system or lowering rates has no effectiveness on economic activity. This is what happened with the Bank of Japan in the 90's, and I think is what the danger is for our system today.
Quote:
However, this amount alone would not trigger inflation or hyperinflation (which would be required to need wheelbarrows to by bread), but with the existent economic conditions as they are, it may be enough to trigger a round of inflation that was not expected.
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The Fed is indeed trying to trigger inflation. See Bernanke's rationale here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bernanke
Today, most measures of underlying inflation are running somewhat below 2 percent, or a bit lower than the rate most Fed policymakers see as being most consistent with healthy economic growth in the long run. Although low inflation is generally good, inflation that is too low can pose risks to the economy - especially when the economy is struggling. In the most extreme case, very low inflation can morph into deflation (falling prices and wages), which can contribute to long periods of economic stagnation.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...110307372.html
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