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Originally Posted by mookiemookie
(Post 1457646)
A decreasing money supply multiplier (velocity or how often $1 is spent) as well as as a plateau in money supply growth :
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This is deflationary as per the quantity theory of money states that M (money supply) x V (velocity) = P (general level of prices) x Y (general level of economic output, or GDP). We'll concern ourselves with the m, v and p, primarily. Now, if you take the general laymans (asking you to go out on a limb with me here, I know) definition of inflation, being a sustained and general increase in prices, then you see how lower velocity can be deflationary. M3 money supply is shrinking, meaning that while there's a boatload of it out there, banks just are not lending it out. A classic liquidity trap.
http://shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-m3.gif Without money supply reaching the consumer, and velocity shrinking, you'll see that's going to necessarily weigh down GDP and the general level of prices.
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tight credit availability
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See above
Wage inflation is the classical harbinger of CPI inflation. (I'm using CPI inflation as shorthand to mean the prices you can go down to any store and observe - not necessarily the CPI index itself, which has been shown to be manipulated and monkeyed with for the last 50 years). Getting back to it - wage inflation is exactly what it sounds like. An increase in the wages workers are taking home. This is very low right now due to the elevated levels of unemployment - times are tough economically, and employers don't have the cash flow to be giving generous raises. Furthermore, workers have no leverage to push for raises - they're easily replaced by someone from the unemployment pool who will do their job at the same wage or cheaper. So without an increase in the dollars being taken home by workers, there can't be an increase in the amount of dollars chasing goods out there.
The effects of deflation at work. Lower demand, lower velocity, fewer dollars chasing the same commodities.
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a double dip housing recession - worst June on record for new home sales, months of supply on the market creeping back up:
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By and large, most American wealth is concentrated in the housing market. Falling home values eat directly into personal wealth. The
wealth effect kicks in (or more accurately, drops out.) and consumer confidence is eroded. Seeing as consumer spending on average comprises 2/3rds of GDP, you'll see downward pressure on the Y portion of our formula.
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restaurants are reeling -
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Another example of deflation at work. In real terms - if you're a restaurant owner fighting to just get customers through the door, you're not going to be raising prices.
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Truck tonnage is rolling over. you work in railroads, you should be more aware than I am of the trends in cargo - I imagine you've seen declines lately
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Lower economic output from reduced demand and full inventories - if you're a retailer and you can't sell what you've got, you're not ordering more to be delivered.
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hotel occupancy is having the worst year since the Great Depression
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Same as above.
Same as above.