SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - Was the XXI pointless???

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- - Was the XXI pointless??? (https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=117021)

I'd say the XXI was pointless in 1944.

Now say in 1941, it could have further influenced the tide of the war but I doubt that it could have turned it.

There were simply too many still negative variables in the situation.

So lets assume that the XXI is operational in say 1941. The following varables still hold true.

1. Bletchy Park reads Enigma traffic on an almost daily basis until the massive code change in 1944.

2. ASW detection and destruction methods get progressively better with the introduction of ASDIC and airborne radar.

3. The Reich's industrial production capacity isn't changed and continues to stedially decrease as the war progresses.

4. The unprecendented US industrial output churns out 32* new cargo vessels a week untill 1946. *-I forget the exact average number but it was amazingly high.

5. The uboatwaffe contnues to expand exponentially and therefore a has tons of inexperienced kaleuns.

I think that even with the capability to create the XXI as early as 1940 that the fate of the war and the extremely high casualty rate of the uboatwaffe would probably remain unchanged, the only increase would be in the overall GRT sent to the bottom.

Oil baby, Black Gold!

Allied air power destroyed Axis Oil fields, Oil production plants and Oil carrying transports.

No Oil = No War Machine. Uboats, Tanks, Bombers, ect... were fastly becoming a mute issue.

War is all about the Oil, even more so today. :rock:

P.S. That is why you should ALWAYS sink a tanker over a merchant vessel.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tronics

Err, no. The Allies were blacked out of Enigma from about February of 1942 to about November or December of 1942. That was due to the switch from 3 rotor machines to the kind-of 4 rotor machines. After that, they mostly kept current, except for times when the wetterkurzsignalheft and kurzsignalheft were changed, but those generally only lasted a few days.

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2. ASW detection and destruction methods get progressively better with the introduction of ASDIC and airborne radar.

True, but the Allies had ASDIC since the beginning of the war (although not as good, and not as many sets). Also, there was a distinct drop in sinkings of snorkel equipped boats in 1944-1945, because radar has a hard time detecting a boat that only sticks a pipe out of the water for 4 hours out of every 24. The disadvantage to the Germans was that it lengthened the transit time to operational areas for the conventional Type VII and IX boats, but that wouldn't have been an issue with a Type XXI.

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3. The Reich's industrial production capacity isn't changed and continues to stedially decrease as the war progresses.

Not necessarily. If the can apply enough pressure to the supply lines of the Allies, that helps to mitigate the damage that the Allies can do to German industrial capacity. I don't think the Germans could have increased capacity by very much, if at all, but I also don't think it would have declined as fast as it did.

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4. The unprecendented US industrial output churns out 32* new cargo vessels a week untill 1946. *-I forget the exact average number but it was amazingly high.

True, but that program didn't hit full production until later in the war.

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5. The uboatwaffe contnues to expand exponentially and therefore a has tons of inexperienced kaleuns.

Which was also true of the US, British, and Canadian navies. The thing is, with better boats on the German side, you don't lose your experienced commanders as quickly, and they are available to train and pass down knowledge and experience to their IWO and IIWO's, who become commanders later.

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I think that even with the capability to create the XXI as early as 1940 that the fate of the war and the extremely high casualty rate of the uboatwaffe would probably remain unchanged, the only increase would be in the overall GRT sent to the bottom.

I disagree. I think what would have happened is that it would have postponed D-Day until at least 1945, or perhaps 1946, which would have resulted in Little Boy being dropped on Berlin instead of Hiroshima. For all that the threat of a Type XXI/XXIII based force would have posed earlier in the war, it wouldn't have made a difference to the Manhattan Project, which was entirely based in the US.

I do so cherish these exhchanges,:up::up:

@pusterbill, +1 :up:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tronics

I'd say the XXI was pointless in 1944.

Now say in 1941, it could have further influenced the tide of the war but I doubt that it could have turned it.

There were simply too many still negative variables in the situation.
So lets assume that the XXI is operational in say 1941. The following varables still hold true.

1. Bletchy Park reads Enigma traffic on an almost daily basis until the massive code change in 1944.
2. ASW detection and destruction methods get progressively better with the introduction of ASDIC and airborne radar.
3. The Reich's industrial production capacity isn't changed and continues to stedially decrease as the war progresses.
4. The unprecendented US industrial output churns out 32* new cargo vessels a week untill 1946. *-I forget the exact average number but it was amazingly high.
5. The uboatwaffe contnues to expand exponentially and therefore a has tons of inexperienced kaleuns.

I think that even with the capability to create the XXI as early as 1940 that the fate of the war and the extremely high casualty rate of the uboatwaffe would probably remain unchanged, the only increase would be in the overall GRT sent to the bottom.

Well if you expand the topic, then you should consider other superweapons of the 3rd reich; Say, if all inventions take earlier in war preferably no later than beggining of 1942;

XXI submarines wreaking havoc in the seas around the britain preventing any merchant, troop transports and oil tankers reaching to mainland. Which means No consumer goods, no troops and most importantly no oil for brits. US ships had no chance to intervene over atlantic as they would have no ports to refuel. I can assume 100 units of XXI addition to existing forces would be enough for such a goal considering XXIs had more range=more time at sea and more than twice the torpedo load of a VII. (Let me remind you, German docks were reached to a maximum capacity of launching 1 boats per day in late days of war.)

In the meantime, Me262 jets wreaking havoc in the skies, nullifying air defence capabilities of RAF and later bombers like B17s bombing industrials over Germany. Industrial capacity will not be harmed as you presume.. (And no B17s to bomb germany since fuel is blockated by XXIs, which means total air superiority over Europe)

For a far more projection of a what if scenario;

Maus tanks smashing their way out over to Russia hopefully reaching to oil fields at caucasus. And even they fail to do so, they had Romenia oil fields at hand and they would not split their armies to west and east as Britain was about submission or at least incapacitated, and in the worst case Germans had the technology to produce synthetic oil from coal as you all know.

If I was to expand my assumption, With the Me262 fighter bombers operating both Africa and mediterranean, they would also be able to aid Rommel in Afrika, sending reinforcements across mediterranean without the fear of allied air cover and securing oil fields over Egypth, leading to more oil supplies.

For those who have an a-bomb raid on Germany on their minds, Nuking Berlin would be out of question as B17s (and later B29s) were incapable of taking off from a carrier and even they were so, no carrier would be able to approach enough past XXIs.

Moreover, as all you know, Germany was also working on her own Nuclear program, and the development of V2s were initialy for intentions to enable to send them over continents. Which means with little haste, they would be able to send a nuclear warhead on top of USA. (For those who still dont know; Japan also had a Nuclear program but, switched it earlier to focus on for a huge microwave beam artillery program which they were more excited with.)

So, What-ifs will never end, and no one can clearly state, outcome of War was never changed, or vice versa. Winners of WWII was surely allies but not to forget it was a victory by a neck.

Whenever I indulge in this excersize I always do it the other way
not what if this was made before but what if the war started
later

say in 1943 in say mmmmmmmmmmmmm april traditional start of
the campaigning season.

Maus tanks smashing their way out over to Russia hopefully reaching to oil fields at caucasus. And even they fail to do so, they had Romenia oil fields at hand and they would not split their armies to west and east as Britain was about submission or at least incapacitated, and in the worst case Germans had the technology to produce synthetic oil from coal as you all know.

[/quote]

The maus was a complete waste of time. Blitzkrieg in the early war was won won by fast nimble tanks eg Pz IV. The maus was a 120 tonne monster which had a top speed of 5mph on solid ground, whick could have beign easily flanked by russian Anti -tank guns. Blitzkrieg would have relied on an advance like the on the Ardennes with a tank like the panther of tiger II. More tanks like these in 41 and moscow would have fallen, Stalin commites suicide, russia in complete comfusion. Germany mops up the remaining resistance. War with russia as good as over.......................

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mush Martin

say in 1943 in say mmmmmmmmmmmmm april traditional start of
the campaigning season.

why april 1943?

Let's assume that Little Boy and Fat Man WERE dropped on Berlin and, say Munich. After that, the US has to wait for new bombs to be manufactured. Will Germany sit idly by??????? Hardly likely- much more likely is that Germany will retaliate with their super-secret nerve gases: Tabun, Sarin and Soman. They had HUGE stockpiles of these weapons- goodbye populations of London, Moscow, Leningrad and scores of other cities. Neither the western allies nor the Soviets had any protection at all against these gases.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GerritJ9

Perhaps, but who is going to be available to give that order?

@ Mentat a random date really, I just love hypothetical debates sometimes.
M