^For the same reason the material reserve of the Russian military is not correctly understood, too. We read the official defence budget (there is a black budget as well, I bet, like in any other country...) and think "This is the number, now compare - ooops, does not sound that impressive, the miliutary is not that big." However, they pay lower wages to their factory workers, the y have in general much lower production costs for military equipment, and they have the ressources and ores they need mostly themselves, they must not buy them on the world market. With the money they have, they can get further, in quantity at least. Thats why the Russian military, on a quantity level, is much bigger than the defence budget seems to express. And thats why I think they can sustain this war of atrition longer than we like to realise. Their problem is not material, but morale.

Russia planning ‘decisive energy blow to all Europeans’, Ukraine’s Zelensky warns

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has told Europeans to expect a difficult winter as the Russian assault on his country leads to cuts in oil and gas exports by Moscow.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has told Europeans to expect a difficult winter as the Russian assault on his country leads to cuts in oil and gas exports by Moscow.

Mr Zelensky warned in his daily video address that Russia is preparing for a “decisive energy blow on all Europeans for this winter”.

He was speaking on Saturday after Moscow shut down a main pipeline that supplies Russian gas to the continent.

Moscow has cited Western sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine and technical issues for the energy disruptions.

European countries which have backed the Kyiv government with diplomatic and military support have accused Russia of weaponising energy supplies.

Some analysts say the shortages and a surge in living costs as winter approaches risk sapping Western support for Kyiv as governments try to deal with disgruntled populations.

Last week Moscow said it would keep the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, its main gas channel to Germany, closed and G7 countries announced a planned price cap on Russian oil exports.

In response, the Kremlin said it would stop selling oil to any countries that implemented the cap.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Sunday that his government had been planning for a total halt in gas deliveries in December but he promised that his country would make it through the winter.

“Russia is no longer a reliable energy partner,” Mr Scholz told a news conference in Berlin.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...out&li=AAnZ9Ug

Difficult, and I have no ultimate answer, too.

Problem is we cannot trust our own political elites either. Any tool to curb Russian influence in the web media will be abused by them to servíce their own agendas as well. The polarization in the US imo has been aimed for without doubt by Russian operators, and see what damage it does, it burns itself into the political culture, into the civil society, the media, even into families. Lacking education, white class being left behind in qualification success versus Asian immigrants, and econimc exodus to Asia in past decades have prepared the ground on whcih Putin'S seeds wonderfully blossom. The result is Trumpism and a level of polarization that only few have ever forseen, it will go on without him, and it will get worse. When in the wake of the Iraq war 2003 I repeatedly said that I think the US will sooner or later turn into a totalitarian regime (I was thinkling mostll about demography, migration and religious zealots back then ), a police state, maybe even openly fascist, I was laughed about, and ridiculed. And today? Look where things are. Things are clearly shifting towards that direction. With help from Russia, with love. That I did not forsee, of course. Means: the seeds that Russia brought to fruit, already were there before. Trump is not the cause of the American political degeneration. He is only the symptom. That I also say since years. The corrosion of the political culture in the Us will continue. It was seriously dmaaged already years ago, and Putin now has given it the rest, from here on the process is self-maintaining, he must not push it anymore. The egoism of political actors and the stupidity of the media will do all the work for him.

Something like that can happen in the EU as well. It would be easier to risk impelmenting certain limiting measures to media freedom, if we would not need to fear that the EU would immediately try to use these for censoring criticism of itself, for example, and there already have been attempts to criminalise criticsm of the EU, or to have mechanisms installed that judge whether a voiced criticism is justified and thus allowe, or not , then it would be sanctioned. The deciding instance of course would be installed by the EU. Aber hallo...?


The West could however answer Russian favours in the same way and declare - unofficially - unlimtied cyberwar on Russia, too, like they do to us.As I see it, we are at full war with Russia already, fought in a way that continues military efforts by other means. But this is a minority opinion I hold, and it has no chance to become the mainstream opinion, so it is a waste of time to speculate about it further.

Thinking men liking freedom and self-responsibility these days can probably do only one thing, that is finding or makign themselves a refugium, hide from the world leave it to itself. I start to think that anythign else is pretty much in vain, for the world is so much off balance that things now are out of control. Atlas must shrug - else he would be called a stupid.

The hexagram 36, Darkening of the Light/Brightness Hiding, in the I Ging describes it like this.

https://schuledesrades.org/public/ig...ch/?Q=5/1/2/36


We must become like Yoda in exile. :) I think there is no solution to our problems in the meaning of things will become again like they were 40 years ago. We must endure the dark times ahead. Those of us who make it over this time, will live. Many will get lost. And I think we do not talk about just a few years, but decades, one, two generations. Maybe this century. We have been indifferent for too long. We messed things up too fundamentally. We did not care for too long. The damage cannot be prevented - it is done since long time. I especially think like this regarding Europe, it will be the biggest and most obvious looser from this redefinition of a new world order.

Russia is a great power only militarily (not anymore), but not economically, not financially, not technologically and not demographically. Technology and equipment are outdated, working and living conditions are poor, and social standards are low. The purchasing power of the Russian people is increasing more slowly than in almost any other country in Europe. Russia's companies are not innovative enough, in the infrastructure is hardly invested, many transport routes are in desolate condition, it has not managed to achieve an economic miracle like in China, at least in the field of transport infrastructure, Russia had still only one expressway Moscow-Saint Petersburg. The main road to the east, connecting Moscow and Beijing, is being reconstructed to this day. Moscow has changed, but not all of Russia, only the money has disappeared. People outside the big cities live under harsh conditions, those people will produce less than in the cities. The Russian economy is still resting on its natural resources, which bring the state the most money; the share of coal, oil, natural gas in export revenues is about one third. In some energy companies, the state is at the same time a major shareholder and helps determine the price as before, the main problem lies in the general atmosphere in the economy.

Putin orders job guarantees for people who "volunteer for the special operation".
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/15655235
But why you need with a job guaranty when you are fertilizer.

What do we ordinary people know about what's going on, on the battlefield in Ukraine ?

Had some serious discussion with some of my FB-friends and some of them seems to believe more what comes from Russia.
(They laughed when I wrote that Russia was in deep trouble in Kherson Oblast)

I said it's all about what one decide to believe and what standpoint one have. I also said I support Ukraine, so I believe what comes from there.

Markus

What comes from Russia is always a lie Ukraine has radio silence for the reason that the enemy is in the dark only see attacks on supply targets for the rest this or that village is ... but none are confirmed by any side. Think this will be so for weeks at least till the weather changes.

Thank you Dargo..I'm also convinced what comes from Putin-Russia is nothing but lies and propaganda.

Let me give you an example
(which some of my friends believe is true)

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1566849608554348544

I like to follow this page on twitter.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3

They give updates about the war without revealing things

Markus

Yeah Russians are bad at it :D

Russian “elite” paratrooper units are being forced into the heaviest fighting in Kherson region.

It seems the Russian elite units will be non existent after this war…

This is largely due to the normal infantry being so incompetent that elite units are put in frontal assaults

Markus

Their airmobile units were dramatically thinned out already in the first few days when naive Russian commanders thought they could send their helicopters in dare-devil fashion and all alone deep into enemy territories to seize bridgeheads at important objectives - and instead got often almost wiped out. After the Ukrainians were done with them after the first two weeks, many of these units had practically seized to exist as cohesive combat formations. The losses were reported to be dramatic.



The Sovjet airmobile regiments were feared during the cold war, assumingn they would be like Nazguls haunting the battlellines up and down from above and penetrate the frontline at will. The Russians maybe became victim of their own according self-perception, thus the over-confidence.

-------------------
Chechnyan terror leader Kadyrow gets reported to have indicated he wants to withdraw from the war and plans to return to his hellhole in Chechnya. Rats leaving the sinking ship?

-------------------
One thing should not be forgotten, never. The Russians have activated so far only a small fraction of their material reserves. And they still have the option to escalate with weapons so far not being used. The question is where their inhibition threshold lies - or better, where it ends.

After I had read your last sentence-One thing should not be forgotten,....

I started to search the internet for a specific article-I remember that in this article some expert said something with We haven't seen Russia's fully Potential in the war.
He mention the airforce-Only a little fraction is active in the war.
He mention the fleet-Only the black fleet or part of is active in the war.
He mention the army...

Markus

Is Russia's economy really hurting?

https://beta.dw.com/en/is-russias-ec...ing/a-63000166

I say since long economic factors and financial factors will not make Russia alter its war policy. I also do not expect the masses rising up against Putin.

Russia's revenues from fossil fuel exports significantly exceeded the cost of the invasion in the first six months of the Ukraine war. The Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) calculated revenues of the equivalent of 158 billion euros. This compares with estimated war costs during the period of one hundred billion euros.

Russia is "still generating record revenues" from fossil fuels despite the decline in export volumes, CREA analyst Lauri Myllyvirta said. The data showed that the EU was the largest buyer of supplies, with 85 billion euros, followed by China with 35 billion euros. Within the EU, Germany led the way with a volume of 19 billion euros, making it the second largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels in the world, just behind China.