Originally Posted by Skybird

Iran is in an extremely strong position, and I tend to think of them as one of the most dominant and influential powers on the globe. We may not like it, but currently I see no way to seriously hurt them without using nukes. they are close to invulnerable as long as China and India do not let them down - and why should they...??? As a matter of fact - we depend on them - while they do not need the West that much. For what should they need the West? Every oil they do not sell to the West, will happily bought by India and China.

If you want to bully someone, make sure you have solid stand. In this, we have not.

That's why I say time and again: without making it our absolute top priority to become independent from Muslim oil, all our actions about Iran, Islam, hezbollah - only is hot air. We can't afford it another fifty years to depend on them selling us oil (or not). We can't depend anymore to live at the receiving end of these incredible vulnerable lifelines of tankers and pipelines and trading lines that are so very open to attack and shutting-down by anyone who likes to do that.

And the Iranians know that! As an Israeli security expert recently pointed out in a German interview, Arabs are proud of their traditions and thus tend to act stereotypic and repeat the same old mistakes time and again, but the Persians are no Arabs, and are smart thinkers and clever minds - which makes them an extremely dangerous enemy.

Also mind you that it falls into this scheme that the most dominant crisis in the ME is not around Israel, but the confrontation between Shia and Sunni Islam. Sunni Arabs fear Shia Iran very much. the conflict is one millennium old, and never was cold. Sunnis have understood that Israel is no threat to their regimes. But Iran-supported Shia Islam is a very extreme danger to them. Have you noticed how relatively silent the Sunni states were about Israel trying to crack Iran-backed Shia Hezbollah? ;) ;) ;)

The inner conflict of an enemy is our benefit. i wonder why we do not start to think about how we could widen and exploit the gap within Islam, economically, culturally, financially, politically, by every means available. Oh wait, that is not considered to be polite, I suppose. Oh dear... Once Shias will believe somebody - no matter who it is - who is telling them he is their hidden Iman who returned to them, their in a way "defensive" understanding of jihad will switch to unlimted attack mode (that'S why they are waiting so desperately). Then we will see Islam in uncontrolled charge. we can't afford to let such a person rise to that accepted status of being their long-awaited Imam. Ahmadinejad is referring to that tradition - that's why he gains so many sympathies.

Originally Posted by ASWnut101

but i don't think the flags were broke......

Originally Posted by micky1up

and if your oil companys hadnt bought out every non petrol car design to stop them being made then you wouldnt be subjected to having to buy eastern oil short term thinking on part of the west, stop buying there oil crash their market and watch em come running arms open

Originally Posted by CB..

i know this is drifting of topic but it completely msytifies me...
we know we are running out of Oil...we know Oil is absolutely essentail to our society in ways we can't even be bothered to think about...we know Oil is both fundamental to the heart of the economy and at the heart of world politics..not to mention the military situation...

yet there is no mention of finding an alternative..other than the vague notion that some one some where will "think of something"...

Oil IS our civilisation....without it we can't even scratch our own noses..

unless some sort of substitue can be quickly found ..one that will slot into the space left by oil with little or no alteration of current technology,
or the entire technological tree will simply vanish...requiring a vast and un endingly radical change to our way of life

i know it is cool to dismiss the frailtys of our current situation...

but i for one would feel a whole lot better if there were some attempt being made to re-assure the public on this subject...

the fact that little or no re-assurance is being proffered by our governments...is deeply deeply perverse

lets face it if they had the soloution then they would have told us..(if it was at all pleasant)

Originally Posted by waste gate

Yes it's off topic and perhaps a new thread is waranted. Until then I have a bit of food for thought.

"Despite the continued growth in global consumption of petroleum, proven oil reserves have increased steadily over the past twenty years, in large part because oil companies have revised their estimates of reserves in known fields. According to the Oil & Gas Journal’s production estimates, during the period of 1970 to 2000, 680 Gb of oil was produced, but 980 Gb of reserves were added. Under old technologies, oil companies could only retrieve about 35 percent of the oil in place; with enhanced technologies, including directional drilling, companies have increased that amount and with new technologies, it is believed that it is possible to extract up to 65 percent of the oil in the field. Moreover, three and four dimensional seismic exploration technology has led to revised estimates of oil that can be economically extracted. Reserves are defined by economic as well as geological considerations; one reason that reserves increase is that companies do not invest funding in exploration and enhanced recovery until there is a demand and the prices of oil warrants the expenditure."

Originally Posted by CB..

ok thanks for that....this is certainly news to me:hmm:

Originally Posted by Takeda Shingen

From Oil and Gas Journal's own 'about us' page (http://www.ogj.com/aboutus/about.cfm):

PennWell Petroleum clearly has a horse in this race. I wouldn't take industry statements, especially those from the oil industry, at face value. We need to get off of oil.

Originally Posted by waste gate

I don't think The PennWell Petroleum Group is pumpimp or selling oil or oil products.
They seem to be a publishing company dedicated to publishing information and analysis for the oil production industry. Much like Jane's, Aviation Week and Space Technology, New England Journal of Medicine and Teacher Education Quarterly are for their respective industries. Trade publications only report on the industry. So as much as the afore mentioned groups have a horse in the race, then I guess you are correct.

Originally Posted by Takeda Shingen

Groups that take part in inside analysis are notorious for touting rosey claims regarding that industry. You will not see Jane's Aviation Week and Space Technology disussing the hard facts of relevence in the space industry. You will not see Teacher Education Quarterly discussing the ugly truth of education in urban America. You will not see Penwell discussing the truth of big oil's impact on society, government and the environment. It is simply not in their best interest. As such, I would be very skeptical of their statistics.

Originally Posted by waste gate

Nor is it in their best interest to lie.

Originally Posted by Takeda Shingen

Heh. No, industry insiders never lie. Cigarette, anyone?