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And? :03:

Top US general Erik Kurilla spoke to Turkey’s military chief last night to discuss Syria. Washington is again warning Ankara against threatening the SDF, a key US ally in the fight against ISIS. Earlier in the week, officials said the SDF accidentally shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone after mistaking it for a Turkish drone. With around 900 American troops stationed in Syria, US and SDF forces have for years conducted joint raids against ISIS targets and militants. Secretary Blinken is set to visit Ankara in the next few days. “We will see how this plays out over the next 48 hours. But we’re not going to tolerate this again,” a US tells Al Arabiya English, referring to Turkish attacks on the SDF.

Blinken and Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin spoke separately to their Turkish counterparts on Monday. Both US officials stressed the need to continue the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS (D-ISIS) mission in Syria, an indirect way of saying Turkey should ensure that their military operations do not threaten US troops or their mission. Austin acknowledged Turkey’s “legitimate security concerns” while also stressing the need to “avoid any risk to US forces and partners, and the Defeat-ISIS Mission.”

A pass :)

To me it looks more and more unlikely that the Russians will easily withdraw their bases from Syria. And that the new rulers even care to negotiate their status despite the Russian support for Assad and their role in the war shows that nothing is engraved in stone.



https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgn8e2zznno

Well, now is the ideal opportunity to rid themselves of Putin but I would ask, why would they want to?

Russia bombed them during their offensive and the idea was that the sanctions against Syria would be lifted if Assad was gone with a possible staying of Russia, sanctions will stay. So letting Russia stay is not in the interest of Syria, I see no other move than to kick them out. No matter how negotiations will end, Russia has been reduced from the one faction calling the shots in Syria, down to being the beggar. None of these outcomes is good for Russia. In fact, what we see here is probably the biggest hostage situation in the world.

Syrian prisons hosting ISIS terrorists will remain under SDF control - Pentagon If those +50,000 ISIS terrorists were to escape from Syrian prisons, they would likely join Turkish-led forces and implications would be severe for the entire region.Large scale protests in Manbij reported against the Turkish led SNA. The SDF withdrew from Manbij city and the Turkish led SNA took over as the SNA seized control over the rest of the city, they started to loot Manbij. The people of Manbij have now risen up against the SNA. :)

Exactly.
This is the litmus test for the new government. If they really want a tolerant, multi-ethnic government, then they will need the West for reconstruction and will have to accommodate it in terms of values and the rule of law. Or do they just want an Islamist tyranny, in which case Western donors won't go along, while Russia doesn't care and offers economic incentives for bases.

I fear the worst and hope for the best. While HTS began to move in a more pragmatic and locally focussed direction several years before the offensive, it remains to be seen what they do in the future, and there are already worrying signs for many of Syria's minority communities. What will HTS do when they feel more secure and safe as they consolidate power and become established in Damascus? No one can say for sure, yet actions will matter a lot more than words. We can easily solve this rusky problem, say to HTS we lift the sanctions (or parts of) if you deny Russia a base in Syria.

Just saw this

Remember all of the jubilation created in Baghdad by the CIA, who hired a crowd that stormed the center square and tore down the statue of Saddam Hussein? Remember the mobs looting the presidential palaces, banks and commercial outlets? Welcome to Damascus 2024. To quote Yogi Berra, “It is Déjà vu, all over again.”

I admit, I am surprised by how rapidly the Assad regime collapsed. This was not the result, primarily, of military pressure from the terrorist fighters of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Something else was afoot. A deal was cut and Assad was persuaded to abandon his government and head for Russia.

I am sure there are champagne corks a popping at CIA Headquarters in McLean, Virginia and at MI-6 Headquarters in London. I think this operation surpassed even their expectations. But, if the subsequent events that unfolded in Iraq in 2003 and in Libya in 2011 are any guide, the celebrations should be tempered with trepidation.

Why? Because Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is now in charge. Instead of bringing peace and reconciliation, HTS will impose strict Sharia law and will punish those guilty of heresy — which means large segments of Syrian society are likely to be purged. HTS itself will become a target of terrorism. The most likely fate for Syria — at least for the next decade — is chaos and mayhem.

While the West is busy celebrating Assad’s downfall as a blow to Russia — and let me be clear, this is not an outcome that Moscow welcomed or wanted — Donald Trump and his advisors do not understand what happened.

Trump’s ignorant statement about Russia’s economy and its progress with respect to the war in Ukraine guarantees that Putin will be in no mood to sit down to negotiate with Trump or any of his water boys.

The chaos that is likely to consume Syria over the coming two months will cause more harm and danger for Turkey and Israel than for Russia and Iran.

Yes, the fall of Assad was a diplomatic blow for both Moscow and Tehran, but managing the emerging security risks presented by an HTS-led government?

Those hot turds are now the problem of Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Israel. Russia and Iran can sit back and watch or, through intelligence assets, help stir the pot.

https://sonar21.com/syria-mission-accomplished/

The Jerusalem Post lists the achievements of the Israeli campaign against the remains of the Syrian regime's military assets. Impressive, if the numbers are correct. They really made hay while the sun was shining.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-833201

The right player. The right tools used. The right place. The right timing.

All that ^ defines the right opportunity - resulting spectacular success.


Well played, Israel!