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-   -   2013 MLB thread (https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=205803)

nikimcbee 10-31-13 07:13 PM

http://harvardsportsanalysis.files.w...2/06/ortiz.jpg

.688

the_tyrant 11-01-13 12:12 AM

Ahh, and I told all my friends to wager their life savings on the cardinals.

Well, better luck next year!

magic452 11-01-13 01:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_tyrant (Post 2136116)
Ahh, and I told all my friends to wager their life savings on the cardinals.

Well, better luck next year!

It looks like you're in the market for some new friends. :hmmm::D
The old ones are gathering pitch forks and torches. :o:o

Magic

Red October1984 11-01-13 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_tyrant (Post 2136116)
Ahh, and I told all my friends to wager their life savings on the cardinals.

Well, better luck next year!

2014 will be our year. Just wait.

We might be losing Beltran though. I hope not. He's finally got on a good team and now the Yankees are looking at him.

He'll do nothing but sit the bench with them.

nikimcbee 11-01-13 05:03 PM

Everybody keeps talking worst to first story, so that means it's the Twins turn.:/\\k:

Red October1984 11-01-13 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nikimcbee (Post 2136487)
Everybody keeps talking worst to first story, so that means it's the Twins turn.:/\\k:

Don't be silly... :haha:

the_tyrant 11-01-13 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nikimcbee (Post 2136487)
Everybody keeps talking worst to first story, so that means it's the Twins turn.:/\\k:

The Blue Jays stand a better chance:haha:

At least we are a big market team (led the league in attendance back in the winning years), and we have a big enough payroll to buy a few decent free agents.


Interesting aside:

High payroll doesn't guarantee victory, but it does allow us to sign free agents, and to sustain a "win now!" model. Considering that "market price" for 1 WAR is like 5 million, and a replacement level team wins 48 games a season.

Assume that it takes 95 wins to make it into the post season, a pure free agent team would costs approximately 240 million dollars a year! A value that only the Yankees and Dodgers can afford.

Now how do teams with low payrolls succeed than? Through their minimum-wagers. Minimum wage in baseball is 0.5 million. Now no player in their right mind would accept minimum wage as a free agent unless his skill level is approximately only replacement level. However, remember, for the first few years of major league service, a young player does not have the right to negotiate pay. Thus for the first few seasons, every young player gets minimum wage. And it is because of this reason that low payroll teams can succeed.

It takes years in a farm system to make a young play major league ready. And thus, it is impossible for a team to go from "worst to first" on the power of their farm system alone. Thus a team must rely on smart front office moves and free agents to make the post season.


The Red Sox were only able to do this because they have the second highest payroll in the league. They were able to flex their financial muscles, get rid of dead weight, and make it to the top. The Twins cannot achieve this, since their payroll cannot allow them to get the free agents they need.

So yeah, what I'm trying to say is, the Blue Jays will be top dog next year instead of the Twins. :O:

Red October1984 11-02-13 12:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_tyrant (Post 2136550)
So yeah, what I'm trying to say is, the Blue Jays will be top dog next year instead of the Twins. :O:

Maybe it's time for the 2014 Thread to start...

Speculation and Arguments over how the Cardinals will win games and how many they win shall begin.

I feel like these guys...

http://www.slate.com/content/dam/sla...gle3-large.jpg

But of course, for St. Louis....because Chicago is the accursed city.


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