Greek president George Papandreou has thrown in a proverbial "spanner in the works" to the deal, by announcing a referendum on whether Greece should take the deal or not.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15533940

Many are now expecting a No vote, and Greece could default/leave the euro. Good news in the short term you say, but was watching the BBC news just and this could lead to banks/investors holding debts for other EU nations in trouble withholding more support and could make things FAR worse.

It is a turbulent day for European stockmarkets, yes. And if Greece defaults, it is a precedence, and other countries in the EU-zone that are weak will also ask, like Greece, whether they should leave the Euro. What we talk about effectively means the end of the Euro-zone as we know it. And yes, it will be an end with terror.

The alternative is terror without end.

Things are too bad, much too bad now as if any sane mind could seriously believe anymore that we could get out of it without suffering.

Interest rates for Spanish and Italian bonds again rocketed upwards today, and what I expect next, no matterf what it will be with greece, is a massive rush of private capital and investment away from the Southern olive-belt of Europe, giving them even less support and even higher interest rates. These countries are in what a vertex is for a helicopter: no way out if you do not have sufficient altitude for a gentle easing, and the more power you apply to the rotor, the more force you create to indeed suck you towards the ground. Just that these countries have so many prioblems and debts that that they already hover below sea-level, so to speak.

Calculations have shown that the "deal" reached some days ago, doe not even fulfill half of the expecations the superficial numbers seemed to have promised and that in some years Greece will be off even muchz worse than it already is now, even if it all would be followed right down to the dot above the i. I assume that this is dawning upon Papandreou and that he is not willing to play the lamb to slaughter afterwards when the whole card-house finally has collapsed.

Question is what the still stronger countries - with the emphasis on "still" - will do: will they still commit themselves to a hopeless suicide mission and allow to get pulled down along with the rest in order to continue their certifiable self-blinding idealism - and mental derangement, if you are less euphemistic - over the Euro and the EU for some pleasant days more before the kettle explodes, or will they finally realise that now they have to save themselves, though under very high losses as well? In other words: will the choice be to lose everything for nothing, or will it be to avccept hurting losses to save at least some?

Germany has plenty to lose with a collapsing Euro, since it's export-heavy industry is very weak when considering how much depending on exports it is indeed. But I think our loss will be even higher if we allow to turn the EU into an unlimited transfer union with bailout after bailout. That would not cost only constant high ammounts of money and increase our own debts to levels that sooner or later surpass those levels we see in the Mediterranean regions, but it would not solve the structural problem, but only delay they final payday - and not for an unlimited ammount of time, but probbaly only a short ammount of time.

Since half a century, roughly, there have been warnings by some that an economy based on debt-making cannot go forever, but must necessarily collapse one day, since it is a snowball system at the cost of the generation that is the last generation of players before the collapse. It seems to me that the talking about this will not go on for another unknown ammount of time, but that the time has run out and we are about to be presented the final accumulated bill. Payday is here, and it means a questioning of the complete economic model that has been established over the time at least since WWII. And we have the unwanted pleasure to enjoy the show from the central seat in the first row, since we are right in the middle of it. Not today, maybe, and probbaly not tomorrow. But you better stop counting in decades, even "unknown number of years".

And for many hundreds of thousands if not millions in several countries from the US to Eastern Europe, this already has beocme a reality as to be seen in their deep social fall that many have experienced since 2008. Many of them will fall even deeper, and their kids along with them, and many more will join their fall.

That is the collective price our civilisation now must pay for what it did over the past 70 years or so. And no, I do not exclude myself from that, since I know my position in life is far from being economically strong anymore.

Terror will be unavoidable, (especially for the greeks now) regardless of the way it will present itself. I have people around me that say that greece will default. It is pure mathematics they say ( however i have to admit i know nothing about economics). Personally if i think about what is gonna happen, if they keep '' helping''/''rescueing'' Greece as they do in these recent years , they just postpone an event while they suck in what greeks have ( and just wait that 'the capital is moved elsewhere'). And we had a noticeable middle class, at least easy to notice in Athens. While the means of such rise can be questionable.
I cant negate that greece will pay for its mistakes. Even worse, will make the next generations pay
Our way of life/work etc was went with bad things, education is a huge mess ( btw the state couldnt provide books for half students), having huge political, economical problems and inequality since 30 years with more or less the same political mess.
Even if it will be a bad situation, most importantly unknown, i have the feeling that we have to flush the toilet here in greece.
Anyways, next decade(s) for greece will be quite bad... future generations that will pay consequences from what was done now and in the previous century.....
P.S. If i am very pessimistic all this its the trigger of something very bad that will appear in next decade(s)

exactly that :cry:

It does look like a global economic collapes is going to be unavoidable :( both the US and EU are already on financial life support.... The Euro dying is going to hurt us enough, but a possible Dollar collapes would be a total disaster.
in 2008 Goverments bailed out the banks. Now we have governments bailing out governments, its obvious what comes next.

I'd advise everyone to start gradually stocking up on storable food and water, I know its worse case scenario, but i figure its something Id rather regret doing than regret not doing.
If the worst happens - shops only have 3-4 days worth of stock.
If it doesn't happen, well at least I wont need to buy any tinned food for a while.

Its a horrible a frighting reality, but our 70 year binge of debt and over consumption is about to come to a head, the sooner we face up to that the better. Nobody truley knows what the outcome will be, maybe it wont be quite so terrible (one can hope)... but from what Ive seen, I wouldnt rule out 1930s levels of deppression or worse as a possible scenario.

Lastest developments not good.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...lout-vote.html

A German newspaper titled the debt problem and the Greek crisis a "global financial core meltdown".

I think indeed that is what it comes down to.

"If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences." - Thomas theorem.

I shan't say anything, as almost everything has been said in the past. What I will say is this: If we allow ourselves this mental handicap that the end of days is approaching, than the Armageddon is the only thing that we'll get. I'm not saying that things are all right, far from it, but if all we see is the perpetuation of this system in tyranny or complete chaos, than something is horribly wrong with us. There are alternatives! Hard times are ahead, for everyone, but if we do not step together and prevent events steam-rolling us into oblivion, then who will? The elites? They'll save themselves.

Now, as to how we can do something like this...I've tried to approach this topic before, here on these forums, in conversation, I've even had a long chat with Skybird...and I've come up short. However, that doesn't mean that my cautious optimism is any more dented as it already was. Always look at the bright side of life! :D

Well yes, it could be testing times, but its not inconceivable that something better could arise from the ashes.
I hate all this doom and gloom, but if the worse does happen? those who are not in the slightest bit mentally or physically prepared will be the ones who will fall the hardest....

I'd sure feel alot better right now if i lived in some remote location with a vegatable patch and solar power, anyone who is self sufficient won't feel a thing! :D

An optimist to me is somebody who approaches a traffic light and sees it jumping from green to yellow while he gets closer, and he thinks: maybe it will jump from yellow-only back to green although that is not possible, or there will be a blackout, or a sudden thunderstorm will appear and blow it away, and so when I have reached the crossroad I will be able to pass right through and do not need to stop.

A pessimist to me is somebody who does not even look at the traffic lights and just keeps saying: it will be red - red - red when I have reached it, it always was red, and it always will be red, and nothing that could ever happen will change that that light will be red, inevitably. I'm doomed, I always was, and I always will be. All life sucks. That traffic light proves it. Aaah - see...!? What have I just said!

A realist to me is somebody who knows that when there is a yellow plus a red light, the next thing lighting up will be green, and if there is just a yellow light alone, the next things to light up will be red - no matter whether I prefer to have a red or a green light when I reach the crossroad. I know that from empiric experience, and becasue my father has programmed the control software for that traffic light, and because the traffic statues say also that they should be designed that way, and I learned that stuff. So the realist bases on past empiric experiences and proven knowledge, he looks around, and forms his expectation for the future on basis of what he knows, and sees: a red light jumping to red plus yellow, or a green light jumping to yellow alone. He then knows whether it will be red or green next. No need for optimism or pessimis. Neither would do harm, nor would do any good. It just does not matter.

I am not pessimistic or optimistic. I see a dysfunctional currency that causes havoc, I see a political system that looks and acts and decides like a neo-feudal system or a dictatorship, I see an institution named EU that stands in the way of European people really living in a Europe that is formed by their will, I see a dysfunctional economic system basing on suicidal exploitation of ressources without regeneration windows, and I see a population of 7 billions, climbing. That tells me two things: the traffic light is yellow and about to jump to red, and the destruction of the Euro currency and the dismantling of the EU in the form it has gained in the past 20 years at least will be extremely painful and hurting, but are necessary to reclaim the freedom and ground to build new, and better. And that I do not see as a guarantee for a better future, only keeping a small chance, since several factors I mentioned are againmst us, and without massive reduction of global population levels any other measurement is impossible to save us: 7 billion people is several billions too much.

So to me, the fall of the Euro and the EU is more about hope than dispair or armageddon. It is a pain that is necessary to keep at least a chance for the future that things will get improved. I just cannot escape to conclude on the basis of what I see. Mere hope is no strategy, and I never considered hope as helpful or relieving, speaking for myself only. It does nothing for me. Nor does pessimism. I cannot escape the little Spock inside me.

Now seeing a good reason for being hopeful, seeing a red-yellow traffic light - that is something different. But I cannot see that in this EU and in this currency. With just the tip of the roof-antenna visible above the swamp's surface I know that we will not get the car out of the swamp again without getting wet from head to feet and making our hands dirty, ruining our dresses completely and desperately gasping for air. We will break some fingers, get scratches and will bleed, and some helpers maybe even will drown.

Time for easy, clean and cheap simsalabim-solutions or hoping for some wonder-magic is over. Since long. We kept our course right into the centre of a strom. Now we will need to ride right through the middle of it. Many regional and local cultures before us have been where we are today , with comparing challenges to their survival, and most of them died, especially those ruled by strong conservative cults and habits, and without written language that would have enabled them to learn observations of past generations. What makes our situation unique is that for the first time not just a regional, local culture is at this stage, but the world-wide global community. This is a first. And that is why the concerns today cannot be waved away as mere pessimism or armageddon-belief only like those that have always been there, in all eras and cultures. Back then they were made from a context of small regional, local viewing ranges. Today we can assess the whole world.

We must not believe but we know that the threats are globally. A dissappearing Rome had some influence on the world even when dying. A dissappearing culture and a dying people on the Easter Island meant nothing to anyone not living there, was not even noted outside. But a collapse of the global supply chain with food and natural ressources, a collapse of the traffic and information infrastructure, a collapse of the financial network and the economic interactions worldwide, do have devastating effects on ALL people in the world, no matter where, no matter whether rich or poor. Many pay with losing property, and social security. Many also pay with their lives as well.

So Respenus, it is not Armageddon-attitude of mine when wishing the fall of the Euro and the EU. I am aware of the costs this will cause for us: they will be very hurting already. I just see that fall as an opportunity to keep the small chances that we maybe, in the face of even more global challenges, maybe have. I do not know for sure what the future holds for us, and for me, but I know for damn sure that the old ways that had brought us to where we are today, no longer serve us well. They led us into today's mess, so - conclusions, maybe?

When you stand on the very top of a steep cliff, and the abyss before you, then you must not argue and think and discuss and calculate whether to walk on, or stop and turn around: you look, and see - or you don't. That'S all what decides whether you turn around and search another way out, or jump, blinded.

That is not complicated at all. Complicated are only our efforts to deceive ourselves.

It's not the best moment for me to go into long discussions, so I'll keep this short. When I said cautiously optimistic, I mean being a realist, but looking at achieving the brighter of possible alternatives. I should had expressed myself better.

While I agree with you Skybird (it appears ever more so with passing years), I see no solution to the EU inside the concept of the nation state. Perhaps I missed that part of your argument (it is late), yet the state is as corrupt an institution as the EU. The EU may at least, on some small level, claim something akin to a benevolent dictatorship (there are advantages in trade and movement that even you can't deny). Nevertheless, EU is where it is because of national policies and politicians. I'll just add this, this whole crisis is a failure of us as well, as homo economicus, since we were more than willing to accept risks to seemingly greater prosperity and as citizens, since we allowed the political system to run rampant. As you've said, we're all guilty. The important thing is, when the crash comes (in whatever form, let's hope for the best, prepare for the worst and all that), where will we stand? On the side of the rebuilders, the denialists or the survivalists? I'd prefer that the most of us will fall in the first category, yet even I don't have such "faith" in the human condition.

Europe needs to be united on the golobal stage, I do not deny it. Just parts of it alone cannot compete with India, Brasil, China, the US. But the EU shows us that it is only a paper tiger when it comes to this summoned spirit of unity. In the end it is a club of narcissistic egoists.

Also, there is nothing and never has bee something that would qualify for being called just one Europe. I personally think of Europes, in plural.

On the problem of politicians, there I have no solution, only some advise how to try limiting the fallout coming with this nemesis.

First, remember it is said that power corrupts and absolute powers corrupts totally. Giving politicians even bigger playgrounds to blow up their egos in, will not make them reasonable and blessed with a sense of altruism and responsibility - it will just allow them to create even greater messes. This, and the lacking legitimation by the people, is the reason why I so unforgivingly oppose a European federal state.

So, second, I do beolieve that democratic principles can only work in communities of relatively small size. Every member, ideally, should be able to oversee the whole entitity. Only then there can be transparency. Everybody should be able to see what the other over there is doing and causing in consequences for others, and myself. I should be able to see what I cause in consequnces for all the others. Lead not by commands, but by setting an example yourself.

Third, nobody being given power to make decisions, should have the power to exclude himself from the consequences of these decisions, or to evade the rules he makes. Never.

Fourth, trading should be understood as real items-trading only. It makes no sense to ship goods around half the world when the same goods are also being produced at the destination. Trading should not be done to make profits in non-material values, I struggle to find the right words here. A ban on the traditional finance industry that we have, that it is about. People should trade with the other when each of the partners has something that the other cannot produce or does not have atv reach of his. Then it makes sense to ship goods around the globe. What does not make sense is to ship potatoes from Egypt to Germany, or butter from Germany to Denmark. Denmark needs no butter imports, and Germany needs no potatoe imports. Especially not from so far away. Trading should be short, direct, and immediate. No finance business involved. No abstract fortune making with values that exist only on paper.

So I do not really talk about national states, although I am aware of the power of cultural identity and national sentiments. One of the sins of the EU, why it is met with so much hostility, is that it ignores and even denies these differences. But these differences are real, and I found that I got along with foreing people the better the more we accepted these differences and examined them and shared them, instead of just denying them. You cannot deny identity without causing aggression. That is true when you deny the other'S identity, and that is true when you deny your own identity. And that is why I think in quite some cases around the world peace would be served so very much better if people were kept separate instead of forcing together what does not fit.

But in effect, I am talking about the highest possible ammount of economic autarky and sovereignity you can get not just on level of national states, but in the regions, and local areas. As little political adminsitration as possible, as much as is needed for neighbour coordination.

I refer to the literature especially by Leopold Kohr, but also E.F. Schumacher.

So while I claim regional and cultural and to some degree national identity, I am nevertheless no nationalist. ;) A nationalist is someone who puts his national sentment before anything else. But I am a human, a German, a European, a child of Western cultural and historical tradition. And then some more!

Identity is important, even when often based on random or irrational factors. Human people ARE irrational. But that also is something the Eurocrats just don't get.

Europe is a Europes. And the differences should not be flattened and denied, but be taken into account to an ammount so that European people feel comfortable with their regional European identity and regional European culture.

How ironic...Greece now seems to be running the EU, not Germany or France or Belgium, but the Greek people...

Interesting times....

While Merkel and Sarkozi are putting on a brave face in light of this unforseen 'act of Greek democracy' you can tell that benethe the surface they are fumming!
Cant say I blame them!
Its not like the Greek bail outs would have averted the crisis anyway, bailouts postpone problems - they do not fix them.

No, money investors are running it, and have already decided, if assessing the flow pattern of investements. The Eurozone will split, at least, possibly like this graphic shows that they have taken from Fitch, and Bloomberg.

Dark blue means hard-currency core euro countries, light blue means soft-currency secondary euro or independent currencies. Note that France also already looks finished, and has negative prodcutivity balance this year as well (-2%). Germany has a plus of 6%, but seems to be set for a recession now.


http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archiv...r_1497252p.jpg

They say Greece is where Western Civilization was born.

Looks like that's where it's going to die. :dead: