Zayphod |
10-08-07 12:53 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by mookiemookie
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zayphod
See, that was my thinking as well (the holding Hawaii as a base, not the poison gas thing), since whoever holds it has a huge base at the half-way point across the Pacific. Look at why Hawaii was so important to the US, and you'd understand why it would have been just as important to the Japanese. With no refuling base anywhere decent in the Pacific, the US would have had to base their ships in San Francisco / Los Angeles until much, much later in the war.
Using Hawaii as a refuling point for their ships, the IJN could have pinned the US Navy back to the west coast (at least, until the industrial might of the US managed to re-build the fleet).
Once pinned against the wall, rebuilding ships would have been much more difficult, and without carriers, we never could have re-taken Hawaii. Without Hawaii, no taking Midway, and without Midway, no other islands to the west. Sort of like chess, huh?
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But in summary, there's no real way that the Japanese could have brought enough troops to take Hawaii, as it would have been defended by 75,000-100,000 US troops on the ground. Can you imagine trying to bring an invasion force all the way over from the home islands in numbers necessary to take the island? Don't forget that the Japanese still had their force in China to supply. They did not have an inexhausatble amount of troops to bring to bear on Hawaii. They just did not have the manpower to do it.
Part of Pearl Harbor's success is that it happened suddenly. A task force of carriers going 25-30 knots is a lot harder to find than a fleet of troop transports doing 10-15 knots. The surprise angle would have most likely been lost and the force would have come under attack before reaching Hawaii, and Pearl would have been ready.
Let's assume that they did take Hawaii. How would you keep it supplied? The Japanese couldn't even supply the garrison on Wake Island, how could they have kept men and materiel flowing to an occupying force the size needed to hold a major US possession like Hawaii? They were already working under a shipping shortage in trying to keep holdings in China, Malaysia and the Philippines supplied. Now you want to add Hawaii and its distance all the way across the Pacific into the mix? The transit time alone would exacerbate the situation. Empty ships travelling back from Hawaii are effectively out of service until they make their way back to the Home Islands.
As for the carrier aspect, Combined Fleet addresses it here: http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm
In short, what it says is that the US could build carriers so quickly that they would have caught up with Japan in a relatively short amount of time. Midway and the Solomon Islands wouldn't have happened if we had lost the carriers at Pearl, but the pace at which we could have replaced those losses means that Japan would have bought themself time but that's it. They would have prolonged the war, but definately not have won it. Remember why we won the way we did: we outproduced the other side.
EDIT: Sorry...didn't realize joea had already posted this link. I still think it presents an excellent case though!
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I think that this was part of the problem that the leaders in Japan hadn't thought of before. Hawaii needed to be taken. The fact that it wasn't gives us the history lesson of not killing your enemy, but allowing him to live - he'll come back to haunt you. So many evil overlords have learned this the hard way (see every James Bond movie where the bad guy just misses the opportunity to kill the hero, and instead gives him an escape route, instead of just putting a bullet through the head).
Basically, you're saying that Japan was not prepared to take Hawaii, and I understand that. The question was "What would you have done differently if you were in charge of Japan's war resources?" i.e, take the necessary troups and make the invasion possible, take Midway at the same time, draw on other resources to make it happen.
I guess it comes down to Japan not really being ready for the fight they started. I agree about the manpower issue. I think they should have used a Ferengi method to buy time: "Every now and then, make peace with your enemies - it confuses the hell out of them."
Granted, they weren't at war with us YET, but they could have pretended to concede some things, while in the background, secretly prepare what was needed to make things happen.
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