SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - Here we go again-Ukraine once again

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- - Here we go again-Ukraine once again (https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=249066)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reece (Post 2821764)

What if Russia reads Subsim posts etc?? :hmmm:

They would make the same assumptions as they did before NATO and the West as whole will fall apart because of the glorious deeds of Putin... it did not!

Good summary of what happened at Pisky a few days ago:

Quote:

Time to talk about what has happened in Pisky aka Pisky crisis. This is my personal opinion of what has happened there in the last few days.

General crisis of UKR Artillery

As we all know UKR artillery suffers from lack of soviet caliber ammo and tubes. However, it appears the problem has become worse recently (end of July), and RU started to notice it in different parts of the front. The situation could be especially hard at Donetsk direction due to alleged RU strikes of UKR warehouses a s@Haiduk told us.

As I understand UKR Command tries to mitigate it by creating NATO caliber arty groups (Girkin talked about them few times). There are not a lot of them (maybe even 1). When this group is present UKR have either relative parity with RU offensive arty group or some superiority over RU defensive arty group.

Probably this is the reason we do not see serious UKR pushes and collapses of RU defenses so far. UKR arty group can suppress RU local defending arty, but it cannot CB large amount of arty RU can concentrate in one place. So, if there is major UKR push RU concentrate arty there and effectively stops everything.

Cause of the crisis in Pisky.

According to RU discussions UKR Command removed the arty group from Pisky around week ago. As I see it was calculated risk - they do not have enough groups, and this is supposedly the most heavily fortified portion of front (I have not seen fortifications/defense myself, cannot comment). RU banged their head at UKR defense here like 6 days and still did not penetrate it completely.

RU on other hand had a real crisis - the progress was negligible. Despite local penetration somewhere else they were stalled by critical Avdiyvka defenses and the only way to deal with them is to encircle Avdiyvka through Pisky and Vodiane (North of Pisky). The inaccurate and inflexible but heavy RU artillery hammer was dropping on Pisky.

As per previous experience UKR defenses could withstand significant RU battering and continue to fight. However, for this offensive RU had little know but very influential trump card - more widely available drone teams prepared by RU volunteer groups in previous months. They started to feed observation videos directly to arty observers allowing RU arty to discover and hammer even pinpoint UKR targets. The RU hammer became significantly more accurate (judging by RU standarts).

Quote:

Pisky Crisis 1-2 August

For several days RU kept drones above Pisky and relentlessly hammered any movement on UKR positions. For the feel here is the sample video of that work. UKR Squad commander Sergey Gnezdilov commented that Pisky was receiving 6500 rounds per day from RU. UKR arty fire was weak. No CB. And only 120mm and 82mm tried to answer occasionally. The only local UKR command could do was to hold the line patching it with fresh reinforcements.

On the 1-Aug while artillery kept UKR defenders in cover first RU assault groups managed to reach the outskirts of Pisky from the Airport direction. They overran a small UKR outpost taking half-dozen of UKR POW. Yet, it seems RU assault group was weak and preferred not to push forward into small arms fight with UKR defenders relying instead on artillery fire. UKR defenders on other hand became too weak to dislodge it. UKR defense started to crack but still was holding.

Until 2-Aug. On 2-Aug probably after RU arty caught fresh UKR reinforcement and from 15 hloptcev 14 became casualties, morale cracked and UKR command started to lose control over forward positions.

We do not know what happened there (push from RU assault groups or too eager withdrawal). What we do know though is that UKR forces pulled back from Cowshed and the eastern part toward western part. RU immediately followed UKR on both sides of ponds.

However even this modest effort was too much for RU forces. Seems to be exhausted and weak after the previous 5 months fighting RU decided not to pursue UKR into UKR rear defensive zone and to dig in at the area reached by nightfall - Dam.

The sudden loss of control caused Sergey Gnezdilov to write an emotional Facebook post describing difficult situation and heavy losses. Shock waves amplified by UKR volunteers reposts reach both UKR public and RU Nats. Word of imminent UKR defense collapse and RU breakthrough caused quite a stir everywhere. Yet, there was neither UKR collapse no RU breakthrough.

Quiet Endgame 3-Aug

Unlike stormy UKR social networks situation in Pisky was relatively calm. RU was probing and hitting anything suspicious very hard at western part. UKR side on other hand seems decided to withdraw toward Donetsk Ring Road and Bridge Republic positions. Also, according to Sergey Gnezdilov vague new post UKR command decided to return the arty group and RU became uninterested in further major pushes.

It was all back to the old arty Ping Pong game.

https://community.battlefront.com/to...omment=1941444

note the summary was written by a pro-Ukrainin blogger.

What is helping the Russians , as noted above and elsewhere, is that they are making greater use of drones to spot targets for their artillery.

Sanctions are working – whatever Putin says

Don’t believe Vladimir Putin’s hype. The Russian economy is not OK. With western sanctions jeopardising up to 40 per cent of the country’s GDP, Putin’s assurances of an economic pivot to the East are a sham. And his weaponising of gas supplies to Europe is the financial equivalent of strapping on a suicide vest. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...ver-putin-says

In St Petersburg, a banner was spotted attached to the fence of the Russian Navy Staff building: “Sailor! The enemy is in the Kremlin, not in Ukraine”
https://i.postimg.cc/GhH8vgSb/FZf7T5RX.jpg

Russian army faces morale problems as Putin’s Ukraine invasion drags on

New polling data from Moscow indicates that Russian public support for the country’s invasion of Ukraine is growing. However, with the war now in its sixth month, there is little sign of similar enthusiasm within the ranks of Vladimir Putin’s invading army. Instead, much of the available evidence points to mounting demoralization among the Russian troops currently fighting in Ukraine.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...sion-drags-on/

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dargo (Post 2821830)

However, with the war now in its sixth month, there is little sign of similar enthusiasm within the ranks of Vladimir Putin’s invading army. Instead, much of the available evidence points to mounting demoralization among the Russian troops currently fighting in Ukraine.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...sion-drags-on/

An army in decline is mostly because the officers is made of bad stuff and the material is no good
(not the words I wanted to use, could not find/remember them)

Markus

Quote:

Originally Posted by mapuc (Post 2821834)

An army in decline is mostly because the officers is made of bad stuff and the material is no good
(not the words I wanted to use, could not find/remember them)

Markus

The Russians are sent in with bad or hardly any equipment generals do not care they never cared and tell their higher up all is going to plan, this is the Russian army doing for centuries.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dargo (Post 2821839)

The Russians are sent in with bad or hardly any equipment generals do not care they never cared and tell their higher up all is going to plan, this is the Russian army doing for centuries.

This made me wonder how they manage to take so much land as they did the first couple of weeks of the war.

Only reason-The best soldiers and material was used

Markus

Quote:

Originally Posted by mapuc (Post 2821841)

This made me wonder how they manage to take so much land as they did the first couple of weeks of the war.

Only reason-The best soldiers and material was used

Markus

The Kherson oblast maybe whole south was so easy taken because of treason in the SBU, Russian infiltration of its security services and it is a vastly open terrain where tanks can do their job, but Russians had high losses, but that is not important for the general staff.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dargo (Post 2821829)

In St Petersburg, a banner was spotted attached to the fence of the Russian Navy Staff building: “Sailor! The enemy is in the Kremlin, not in Ukraine”
https://i.postimg.cc/GhH8vgSb/FZf7T5RX.jpg

:haha:

Vladimir Putin fears a long war in Ukraine more than you think

Conventional wisdom says that in the grinding war of attrition in Ukraine, even in the face of fearsome Western sanctions, time is on Vladimir Putin’s side.

He’ll certainly need it.

The latest state-of-play report by experts at the Institute for the Study of War, suggests that Russian optimism earlier in the summer is now fading as it is forced to choose which parts of occupied territory in South and East should defend from Ukrainian forces, buoyed by the US supply of HIMAR missile systems.

“Ukraine’s preparations for the counteroffensive in Kherson… combined with the dramatic weakening of Russian forces generally appear to be allowing Ukraine to begin actively shaping the course of the war for the first time,” it says.

Russia might soon look for a strategic truce.

Gerhard Schroder, the ex-German Chancellor, claimed last week that Russia was hoping to find a solution to the war in Ukraine, adding that the deal on grain shipments could be the basis for a ceasefire.

Mr Schroder is not the most credible pundit. He is dismissed by many, in and outside Germany, as a lapdog of Mr Putin for trousering $1m a year from Russian state energy firms.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...out&li=AAnZ9Ug

Four more grain ships leave Ukraine as hopes grow for export stability

Four more ships carrying grain and sunflower oil have left Ukraine ports via a safe maritime corridor.

Millions of tonnes of grain have been stuck in Ukraine due to Russian blockades, leading to shortages and higher food prices in other countries.

But last week the first ship left Ukraine's ports since February.

The latest ships to set sail are bound for Turkey where they'll be inspected as part of a deal reached with Russia and the United Nations.

They left on Sunday from the ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk, and will all travel through the Bosphorus strait.

After the inspections, two are then scheduled to dock in Turkey, while the others are headed for Italy and China. Another empty ship has been authorised to travel to Ukraine for loading.

Under a deal brokered by Turkey and the UN last month, Russia agreed not to target ships which were in transit, while Ukraine said it would guide vessels through mined waters.

The deal, set to last 120 days, can be renewed if both sides agree.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62454674

Ukraine’s Drone Spotters on Front Lines Wage New Kind of War
A reconnaissance unit using drones to direct artillery strikes is frequently a target itself. Commercially available drones selling for as little as $3,000 are revolutionizing combat. “Fire,” a Ukrainian reconnaissance unit commander said after receiving a message from the artillery team. It took more than 20 seconds for the sound of an outgoing Ukrainian artillery round to reach this narrow strip of woodland on the front line between Ukrainian-held Mykolaiv and Russian-occupied Kherson in southern Ukraine. https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine...mobilewebshare

Bullsh!t propaganda

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MM1VzT16QF4

I only post this because it resembles the UK brexit propaganda of similar "quality" and the same channel from half a year ago :03:

^ The problem is...people, some of them, would believe it.

For me it's rubbish propaganda. Not even worth watching.

Markus