Not 'Minnesota Nice' in 1862
 

I have somewhere read that KJU is acting like a spoiled child.

A spoiled child would if it isn't going his or her way kick to things or scream at people

Wonder what KJU will do ? Now this new sanction are upon him ?

I say we shall be prepared for everything-From a new testbomb to some more missile to ICBM test. Where he will send these I don't know. He will not send them against other countries soil.

The response from KJU will come, the only question is when and with what ?

Markus

Yeah, western media likes to do that, belittle Kim Jong-un, cast him as a small child, a spoilt brat...because it helps bury the fact that he has done what Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gadaffi could not do. Stop the US by affixing a price tag to regime change that is so high that they would not be willing to pay it. Even if Kims regime falls through internal strife, the resulting nuclear armed chaos would be even more of a nightmare for global security than a stable nuclear armed DPRK. I remember all the scare stories about Russian nuclear weapons during the Yeltsin years, or the worry that Russia was on the brink of insurrection and potential civil disorder or civil war at some points. Before Putin put the boot in that is.

So, if I were you I'd take that thought of Kim Jong-un being a spoilt brat and throw it in the dustbin, sure it's funny and there's been some hilarious memes and cartoons on those lines but it's what has got us to this point, because every time the DPRK has said that it's going to do something, the response from the west (and China for that matter who considers the DPRK as some kind of special needs kid) has always been 'Oh, they won't do x, they can't do x, they're too backward and/or poor.' and then the DPRK goes ahead and does x. I mean, the absolute bonanza of pictures that has come out of the DPRK...they are probably the first nation in the world to actively document and display their nuclear and missile program for the world to see. They're sending us a message, even if we think they can't do something, and perhaps right now they can't...but very soon, sooner than we think, they will do it.

So, treating Kim as a rational(ish) actor for a moment, what will he do next after these sanctions? Well, having a nuclear shield gives him a lot of options...back in 2010 he shelled an island and sunk a warship, just to cement his power during the transition period from Jong-il (who was very il) to Jong-un. The ROK shelled back in response to the island, but did nothing in response to the Cheonan, so he might decide to sink another warship. Although that would galvanize the ROK more, and judging by his current maneuvers, Kims goal seems to be to try and drive a wedge between the ROK and US, something that the whole KORUS trade deal argument is really helping. So I think that he'll look eastward rather than southward. If I were a Japanese person on Hokkaido right now, I'd be a bit concerned. I think that the DPRK might hold back from directly attacking Japan since that would provoke a severe retaliation, however I think that the Guam test or something similar to it may have become a bit more likely.
They also could quite possibly shoot an ICBM with a live nuclear warhead into the Pacific and detonate it in international waters. They would fly it over Japan, and Japan wouldn't be able to shoot it down since by the time it got over Japan it would be out of reach of the SM-3s, and they'd probably route it away from the GMD, perhaps towards Hawaii way, far enough away that there'd be no real effects, but close enough that the US knows who it was for. There would be little the US could do in retaliation since they themselves did the same thing in 1962.

We also learn from our mistakes along with France that it is wrong to test nuclear weapons in the innocent waters of the Pacific. Stop thinking America is the same country of the Vietnam years.

History is in the making ... North Korea will decide it's future. Trump won't back down much longer.

Watch CNN this Friday night 10 pm est for a new inside look at North Korea. The leader is strange, the people are strange and these days are strange.

You shall know them by their fruit.

It was a different day, age and threat. It was the height of the cold war and a day two nuclear superpowers were in contention with one another. According to my information Op Dominic was in response to the Soviet's resuming nuclear air burst tests. So lets hope Operation Dominic has absolutely no influence on our future decisions. Because we didn't feel guilty about such a display of power then, I doubt we'd would feel guilty about it now. I know I wouldn't, I said it once before I'm willing to take as far as THEY want to go. The want to pop one off over Japan I'm all for a Operation Dominic II

Exactly, the US felt threatened by Soviet testing, so it responded with its own display of power, and it still does but in a less explosive manner. Especially since it's a member of the NPT and thus cannot conduct nuclear tests, however in response to DPRK tests, the US routinely flies B1s out of Guam and across South Korea. B1s that could quite feasibly launch some JASSMs from 600 odd miles out and start plinking DPRK missile sites / Communications centers / Kim Jong-uns. Given that the DPRKs radar capabilities are potatoes, then they would not get much in the way of warning before things started exploding. Thus they need to look at tell-tale signs of an imminent US attack, and then hit their targets before they get hit.

It's a bit like Able Archer '83, when the Soviets were worried that the US could launch a nuclear first strike and the Soviet Union wouldn't detect it until it was too late. So they started monitoring the communications and command structures that would authorise such a strike, and not long after that NATO undertook a large scale exercise which simulated a nuclear strike on the Soviet Union...which the Soviet Union then took to mean that such a strike was coming for real. Fortunately before the Soviets could preempt the oncoming attack, the exercise ended but not before all Soviet nuclear forces went on high alert. Thankfully NATO didn't respond to that alert, and thus things were allowed to peacefully de-escalate.
And, of course, that's also not forgetting the other incident in 1983 that almost killed us all, when a Soviet early warning radar station malfunctioned and reported an incoming US missile. Thankfully that went no further than the head of the station and thus no retaliatory strike was launched.
The DPRK is not the Soviet Union, there is unlikely to be a North Korean version of Stanislaw Petrov who will see a missile track on their radar screen and presume that the radar has broken rather than an American strike is coming in. The Soviet system could barely take the strain put on it by NATO, it's hard to believe that the DPRK system is any better, and in a situation such as is to be found on the Korean peninsula whoever launches first gets the advantage, which means that there is no time to verify something, no time for cooler heads to prevail. Our only saving grace may ironically be the highly centralized system around Kim Jong-un, that allows time for mistakes to be found between the first occurrence and whatever the North Korean version of the nuclear football is brought to Kim Jong-un for him to authorize a launch. Of course, that centralization is also a weakness which will be known to them, so you can be fairly sure that a fail-deadly system will be in place, so if someone tries to kill Jong-un in order to prevent a launch, they will in fact trigger one instead.

There are many, many ways this thing could go very wrong. Still...on the up side, the boffins who planned out the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and the likely outcomes of these are now working on the outcomes of a Korean war and how to fight an insurgency armed with chemical and biological weaponry. So it's good that employment opportunities are being created. :yep:

https://i.imgur.com/lIuLT0z.jpg



Different sides, same coin...






<O>

my .02

Kim is a monarch, if he admits it or not. it;s a hereditary kingship and his #1 goal is to continue this arrangement. In a country where everybody has approved haircuts- he doesn't in a place where everyone is near emaciated he's morbidly obese (and has a gorgeous wife). he basically acts like a king and lives off of his peasants. but, he knows full well that if attacked there is a snowballs chance in hell his fat butt will make it out alive (either by opposing forces or his own people). nuclear weapons are his insurance policy for the west, gifts an titles an insurance policy for those in the military/ government and the bullet an insurance policy against his own people. take those all away and he's be dead in about 2 seconds.

so no, I don't think Kim wants a war. that's the last thing he wants. he just wants to stuff his face, drink his expensive booze and grope any lady he pleases in his little kingdom.

Pretty much. That being said, I think if Kim thought that the US was going to call his bluff, that a TLAM or JDAM with his name on it was streaking its way across North Korea, that he'd order the nukes to fly just to spite the US. A sort of "If I'm going down, I'm taking as much as I can with me."

maybe i misunderstood you. i thought you were implying that we coulnt really respond if NK launched one over japan into the pacific because we did we did something similar in 62.

From a 'Let he who is without sin' perspective maybe, but certainly one could argue for major sanctions on the DPRK if it conducted a Frigate Bird style test. However in regards to actually doing the same kind of thing in return, it's...possible but difficult since the US is a signed (but not ratified) member of the CTBT, and thus it would set a precedence for other members that have signed but not ratified, like China. Last thing we need is for the 1960s style of competitive nuclear atmospheric testing to start again. Although it might be a bonus point for the odd folks who recently were suggesting nuking Harvey or Irma... :hmmm:

Late this night before I turned my computer off I read an interesting article

This person had a more positiv view on NK and KJU

She said despite UN and USA sanction on NK its economy are growing(that what it was written in Danish)

They have for a quite a while been bunkering oil for all eventuality

They will not at any cost stop they nuclear program-Even if it mean they have to eat grass or drink fixed sea water. They will not stop

In fact it will be the civilians who will suffer, ´cause every coin NK earns during these sanction will go to the military and the nuclear program.

Markus

Now that bitcoin is the new 'spice' Lil' Kim must decide if he's the DPRK's Kwisatz Haderach or just plain ol fatboy ....floating around https://media1.giphy.com/media/lRyYX...00.gif#0-grid1 :O: :()1: Rule 4: If 'money is the sinews of war' and Fatboy is forced to illegal money wire theft transfers and bitcoin stashes as has been demonstrated-he's in serious trouble already. http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/08/investing/north-korea-banks-swift-ban/index.html

Things could be much worse. Imagine for a moment Erdoghanistan would not have bought its new SAM system in Russia, but in North Korea! :D