Yesterday I read an article in Naval News about this Rescue Tug who had been sunk by the Ukrainian

As it said in the article Ukraine has Brimstone anti ship missile, Neptun and now Harpoon.

Well from what I know Denmark is the only country so far who has send RGM-84 to Ukraine-If they are operational I don't know.
(USA has sent them too-but first some week after)

The distance from land to the target says it wasn't brimstone-so it could either have been their own Neptune or Harpoon.

I came to think of this when I saw Jims video in #4667

So maybe it was the Danes who sunk this tugboat, indirectly

Markus

Polish forces would decimate Belorussian forces, the fact they think they have a chance is funny.

They do if Russia guarantees to watch their backs.

Poland being a part of NATO, would be a no win situation for both Russia and Belarus should they decide to stupidly start another fight. Russia is in no position to start a new fight when they can't finish the one they are in now and certainly not against vastly superior forces.

That is all Russia would do, watch how the Belarusian army is destroyed.

Im' convince this war will spread to the neighbour countries, like Poland, Romania, Hungary a.s.o.

This my standpoint and are not based on knowledge or expertise.

Markus

The context is key here gentlemen "the fact they think they have a chance" would be sufficient to tempt them to act.

Whether that would be successful or otherwise I was not referring to.

This Belarus rhetoric is exactly to invoke NATO involvement, all talk. Belarus or Russia can not afford more fronts opening or even have a chance to win this. Lukashenko does not dare to send his army because that army does not want to fight, there is mass desertion in last month's happening because of a possible invasion in Ukraine by Lukashenko. His army is fleeing to Poland to join Ukraine forces, that is Lukashenko's butthurt.

If I was Putin I would say to Lukashenko that he should attack Ukraine from north so Ukraine has to move huge amount of troops from south to north.

This mean Ukrainian has to fight on two huge frontlines.

Nato and their effort to send weapon and ammo to Ukraine will be difficult and has to be lot higher than the daily supply they send today.

Belarus should stay away from Poland.

Markus

This means civil war for Lukashenko because in Ukraine there are Belarus defending Ukraine. Lukashenko will have a second front opening in his own country by his own people, his supply lines will be destroyed by the Belarus resistance. It was the Belarus resistance that helped in slowing destroying Putin army supply lines with success.

Poland has around 300,000 military personnel and plans to double that number. It has modern equipment, is part of NATO, and specially motivated. Also it is trained according to Western/NATO doctrine. Not Germany needs to protect Poland - Poland could protect Germay, that way the comparison makes sense.

Belarus, according to Wikipedia, had 48 thousand personell for army and air force, and mostly outdated equipment with Russia having delivered some upgrades just in recent 2, 3 years. Motivation and morale are very much in doubt. Their training and command scheme is still Sovjet-style.

There is little worry about Belarus all by itself attacking Poland. It would be stupid.

Militarily, conventonally, NATO is superior to Russia. But with Russia, in a thought experiment, being the aggressor, it would choose time and place, and amass its forces accrodingly and could possibly acchieve temporary regional superiority, with NATO's forces scattered all across Europe, the bulk of it in the "Hinterland" and thousands of kilometers away from the fighting zones, and being in very low readiness status levels. also, unity of NATO members is uncertain, paragraph 5 leaves open escape holes for members not wanting to join a NATO defence case. Sad, but true.

Currently, this scenario is unlikely. The Russian force's deficits have been clearly revealed. They could by sheer numbers overrun the three Baltic small states, and NATO probably beign unable to defend these successfully - and probably that then would be it for Russia for the time being. Note that NATO rushes reinforcements into this region. They are aware that currently their status in the Baltic states is not good. Too low numbers, that means.

My greatest concern should Russia and NATO clash and NATO almost certainly getting the upper hand would be Russia turning to tactical nukes.

Since the 80'ies and forward I have seen and heard high ranked officer and military expert saying it's not a question about if but when nukes will be used in a war between Nato and Soviet/Russia(the W-pact)
(some say directly at the start of the war, while others say later into the war)

Back to Belarus and Russia-I don't know what type of plans these two have-I only know that I will know in a couple of month from now.

Markus