That was the reason why the US delivered American howitzers from early on and in not small numbers: for these they could deliver ammunition, for Ukraine's Sowjet-made artillery there is no ammo resupply.

The Russian losses may be high, but they can afford them easier than the ukraine can afford its own, lower losses. Time and some certain European states work against the Ukraine.

'Ukraine lost about 10,000 soldiers in war with Russia'

In the more than three and a half months since the war began, some 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. This is what an advisor to President Zelensky said in an interview with a member of the Russian opposition on YouTube. It is believed that the death rates on both sides are higher than admitted.

As recently as late May, President Zelensky spoke of 50 to 100 Ukrainians killed per day. Another of Zelensky's advisors said Thursday that that number had risen to 100 to 200 due to heavy fighting in the Donbas.

Zelensky's advisor Oleksi Arestovych said in the interview with the Russian opposition member that the number of soldiers killed at the beginning of the war was also 100 per day. When asked if one could then assume a total of 10,000 soldiers, Arestovych said, "Yes, somewhere like that."

According to him, the losses on the Russian side are now greater than on the Ukrainian side. By his estimate, 600 Russians were killed yesterday. But to push them back, more artillery is needed, he said. Arestovych went on to say that Ukrainian forces are achieving successes thanks to Western support. Without that support, the Ukrainians would probably have been pushed back as far as the Dnipro River.

Ukrainians still holding out in Severodonetsk

The Ukrainian army is still holding out in the Severodonetsk industrial area. "Severodonetsk is not, yet, 100 percent liberated," the leader of the self-proclaimed People's Republic of Lugansk told the Russian news agency Interfax. "The Ukrainian military is still in the industrial area where the Azot chemical plant is located. From there they are shelling the city. You cannot possibly call the situation in the city peaceful." He is convinced that the Russians or pro-Russian separatists will take control of the area in the near future.

Other sources also suggest that Severodonetsk is still being fought hard. The British Ministry of Defense, in its update this morning, says that there is fierce fighting and heavy casualties on both sides.

Severodonetsk is the last major city in the Lugansk region still in Ukrainian hands. President Zelensky said Thursday that the battle there could be decisive for the future of the Donbas. That is the easternmost part of Ukraine, which includes the Donetsk region.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 11 June 2022

As of 10 June, Russian forces around Sieverodonetsk have not made advances into the south of the city. Intense street to street fighting is ongoing, and both sides are likely suffering high numbers of casualties. Russia is massing fires with its artillery and air capabilities, in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian defences.

Since April, Russian medium bombers have likely launched dozens of 1960s era Kh-22 (NATO designation, AS-4 KITCHEN) air-launched, heavy anti-ship missiles against land targets. These 5.5 tonne missiles were primarily designed to destroy aircraft carriers using a nuclear warhead. When employed in a ground attack role with a conventional warhead, they are highly inaccurate and can therefore cause significant collateral damage and civilian casualties.

Russia is likely resorting to such inefficient weapon systems because it is running short of more precise modern missiles, while Ukrainian air defences still deter its tactical aircraft from conducting strikes across much of the country.

https://i.postimg.cc/xqB8YcMs/FU8s2-Sw-WQAEa5-ST.jpg

Russia's running out of modern missiles or can not re-activate quick imissiles in storage. Now using heavy, anti-ship missiles which are highly inaccurate when used in a ground role Russia still unable to capture town of Severodonetsk & Ukraine's air defenses are deterring Russian jets from flying across much of the country.

As a rule of thumbs I multiply Ukrainian claims on own losses by 1.5, and I divide Ukrainian claims for Russian losses by 1.5.

Factor 1.5 just by tendency - there is no further argument to claim any precision that we cannot be sure of.The Ukraine also wages propaganda - it just does a much better and more subtle job in that than the Russian fascists with their hate-dripping murderous rants. Medwedew really has turned into a Comical Ivan.

From the Russians With Attitude Twitter account from a couple of days ago:


https://twitter.com/rwapodcast
https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts...h-7xv_d9OSWHs/



"Russian journalist Alexander Kots, a war reporter with over 20 years of experience in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Libya, Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Donbass & Karabakh, streamed a Q&A session about the war yesterday; here's a thread with a summary of what he said:


- The Ukrainians have excellent artillery training & equipment


- The AFU emphasize small unit tactics; this slowed down the Russian advance in the beginning of the war



- The Russian offensive routes largely matched with those the Ukrainians trained for in NATO exercises


- The border regions were full of photo traps & other surveillance equipment that gave the Ukrainians a good idea of what was happening militarily



- Even a full liberation of the DPR & LPR won't secure Donetsk from Ukrainian shelling bc of long-range weapon systems


- The seemingly senseless shelling of Donetsk is explained by Ukrainian attempts to cause discontent among civilians in the sense that the Russian Armed Forces cannot protect them


- The capture of Lisichansk will mark the full liberation of the LPR


- "Small cauldron" tactics & the slow advances are deliberate, but not the tactics of choice; Russians are advancing at best with a 1:1 ratio and often against a numerically superior enemy



- Prisoner exchanges are still taking place, but not mass exchanges, 15 for 15, 30 for 30


- The Ukrainian army generally refuses to pick up their dead despite being offered ceasefires to do so


- The average level of experience in the AFU has dropped significantly since the start of the war, it's now 20% professionals and 80% conscripts


- Ukrainian infantry is of very low quality in terms of training & morale; their artillery & special forces are decent


- The Ukrainians generally don't accept close quarter combat and retreat instead, but they usually do so in an organized manner


- The volunteers from all over Russia who are trained in Gudermes (Chechnya) are doing quite well in the war


- This scale of combat is seen for the first time since WW2; Kots has never worked in a conflict of this intensity


- Russia is not at war with Ukraine, but with the entire NATO infrastructure: intelligence, satellites, communications, military equipment, counter-battery systems, electronic warfare systems



- "Bayraktars" are absolute crap, they're fish in a barrel for any decent anti-air


- The Ukrainians are having problems with some munitions, e.g. their Smerch & Uragan MLRS systems rarely fire in volleys nowadays, mostly single shots



- Ukrainian artillery is often the only thing slowing down Russian advances


- Securing Donbass won't automatically win the war"

Spain considered delivering Leopard tanks to Ukraine, then Berlin told them off, according to Melanie Amann from Der Spiegel. According to government sources, Germany warned Spain that this step would be a departure from the informal decision of the West not to supply Kiev with western tanks apparently, the plan was leaked before anyone in the Spanish government who was familiar with the issue had been involved, the German government said somewhat mockingly.

That’s the German spin, but it is a sentence that is somewhat embarrassing for the Sánchez government. Spanish government, Ministry of Defense, did not want to comment when approached. Defense minister Robles had acknowledged that a Leopard delivery "is on the table" on Tuesday night. If true, it shows, of course, that the German government does not only not deliver western tanks to Ukraine, it also actively discourages allies to do so while the Ukrainian government seems increasingly desperate to secure heavy weapons. https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deuts...8-11ba716dacf1

The poor state of the 40 tanks in question likely played a not inconsiderable role. Apparently, only 10 can be made combat ready again, after extensive refurbishment. Which is not implausible, since the sale of these tanks failed twice already ... due to their poor state. However, Scholz seems absolutely determined to keep German tanks/IFV's/APC's out of Ukraine ... almost by any means necessary.

As US General Ben Hodges has written, France is currently providing less military support to Ukraine than Germany, which has been criticised for the volume and speed of its deliveries. In Macron's words, Paris does not want to allow Russia to be defeated (and humiliated).

France is probably one of the most capable of the western European armed forces. But it's set up to promote and project French goals namely protecting what they already have. It doesn't have the budget to supply other nations with combat hardware without seriously affecting their own readiness. Germany is even worse yet having only the slightest chance to fight it's way out of a wet paper bag with instructions how. Neither IMO have anything to give.


Expecting them to give away their own high tech whizz bang gadgets and arms like the Leopards Le Clercs is just pissing away material since nobody in Ukraine knows how to use the damn things anyway. It would take a massive amount of time and effort to train in their operation but also in the doctrine they were designed for. Only to see them obliterated because of no proper infantry or air support.



Poland on the otherhand sent 240 T-72's which is what every Ukrainian professional and conscript army trained with. 240 T-72's is a helluva a lot of fire power! What's left of them?

^ Isn't really 100 % sure, if Poland will be the first country who join the fight on Ukrainian side.

Just a hunch I have that Poland will go active into the war when and if Belarus attack Ukraine from north.

Nato will say-Poland is attacking and can therefore not get any help according to article 5.

Markus

NATO members can do war look at turkey only they work allot with factions paid assisted by them do not think it is a smart move if Poland is attacking.

I think that in a year from now more countries will take part in the war either on Ukrainian side or on Russian side.

We have Poland and Romania who is Ukrainians biggest friends
While
Belarus, Hungary and Serbia is Russians biggest friends.

Markus

I don't think the Potatoes north of Kyiv are much of a threat. I also read some sources which say Russian can manage a sustained offensive for around 120 days. Its now day 108 of what was supposed to be a quick three day operation. I think the major push from Russia right now is just try and complete the occupation of the Donbass. If they can't accomplish that and hold what they got things might start going downhill for Russia.