China says changing position on sea dispute would shame ancestors

Totalitarism's old tricks include ancestor worship
 

War, war never changes.

However your post implies that you could ocupy areas of PRC. What kind of military force would such an action require? At what kind of cost? What I am saying is that unless PRC implodes it would still grow up as a viable challenger in Asia-Pacific area, simply because it's economic power would allow it to.

And this is b/c USA has to project power globaly and not in that specific region, EU states though wealthy are divided and individually are loosing meaningfull ability to project power into Asia-Pacific.

I think that it is a matter of perspective. Ie recent expansion of NATO and coup in Kiev are bad, bad things from our stand point - threats that require reaction. Thus Russian actions are not driven by perceived weakness and lack of deterence, but by perceived threat, thus increasing deterence measures leads to escalation and not balance.

Going to war against Russia or the PRC would be most unwise, as both countries have significant nuclear arsenals (ie US does not enjoy nuclear monopoly of the WW2). This is the only real existential threat US has ever really faced.
Morever a war against either of the countries, even should it stay conventional, would imply significant coasts.

The war in both cases (more so in case of the PRC) would be impossible without decisive US comitment.

I thoroughly agree with your analysis; both Hong Kong and Formosa (Taiwan) are significantly off the coast of China. :up: I do not believe any one would revert to nukes; this is warfare/haggling for economic resources, not national survival-and nobody's that stupid...yet.:timeout: The commitment would most certainly be critical against mainland China as our allies: Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Brunei, India and Viet Nam, all major players, would need to know we would stand the distance. They are the principle "frogs around this pond". The situation map> borrowed from the Chinese minisub thread (thanks Harvs) throws considerable light on the situation.http://resources3.news.com.au/images...d53e0ab2bf.jpg With recent Chinese submarine forays into the Indian Ocean...significant coasts indeed!

If this is a shooting war (and blockade of PRC would result in a shooting war), then PRC would deploy area denial assets, which have sufficient range to deny USN operations in the area... Unless USN is ready to take the risks. Which would mean that it would loose a number of surface ships, probably carrier included.

You couldn't just pressure a regional power into doing things by using military force threats and expect no resistance. If pressure is sufficient (ie an all out war with ocupation of Taiwan), then PRC would engage US bases in the region and may shift to tactical nukes.

Morever balance in the region is shifting, at the moment PRC has sort of parity with other regional players (ie Japan and ROK) and something one could count as a possible conventional superiority. This would change over time, as PRC naval build up goes on. If we take the estimates by globalsecurity.org (http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...a/plan-mod.htm) then things are not looking rosy for the USN to conduct any meaningfull power projection in there even in near future.
The air/naval bases in that southern area further improve the PRC control of the area, further increasing costs of USN power projection in there.

Note that ROK and Japan strongly dislike each other for historic reasons. India and others are unlikely to commit, unless they were directly hit by PRC first. Hence allies in that war should not be taken for granted.

A war with PRC would also imply the need of Russia to be the Western ally, as otherwise blockade of PRC is not possible.

Which is why I cannot see any way out of this. China will try to enforce their idea of sovereignty and dictate to the other countries in the region regarding trade and navigation of this important sea lane. When push comes to shove, either China will have to back down and allow other nations the use of these sea lanes, as International law has always prescribed, or Japan and the US will have to concede and accept this. If the US decides to use military force to back China down, we will end up in another Korean-style war, at least initially. Somewhere down the line, like you say, someone will get fancy with tactical nukes and we will be undergoing our first nuclear exchange. Putin loves to bring up the topic of nukes. I know our current President will be cautious, but he's soon to be replaced, and anyone else is going to be more hawkish than him. So, China may get a surprise when they realize what they've brought on themselves.

Found some really good images of the progress they've made constructing these islands.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphi...uth-china-sea/

I have a bad feeling about this. I do hope they, the countries who are involved in this hot issue,-will find some agreement on which all parties can agree on.

Markus

Me too, buddy. I'm not extremely optimistic....looks like too many trains on the same track.

Discovery News had made this video

What if China & Japan went to war

https://testtube.com/testtubenews/wh...campaign=owned

My thought about this.

You can not predict how a war will proceed, after it has started.

As I wrote on their FB-page
"I think it will end with a nuclear exchange between USA and China"

Markus

New commander on deck...perhaps Swift action in Cows Lick
 

http://www.military.com/daily-news/2015/07/20/us-pacific-fleet-chief-joins-surveillance-of-south-china-sea.html http://images.military.com/media/new...ft-600x400.jpgThe new U.S. commander of the Pacific Fleet joined a seven-hour surveillance flight over the South China Sea on board one of America's newest spy planes, a move over the weekend that will likely annoy China.
Addressing those concerns, Swift said he was "very satisfied with the resources that I have available to me as the Pacific Fleet commander," adding, "we are ready and prepared to respond to any contingency that the president may suggest would be necessary."
The U.S., Swift stressed, doesn't take sides but would press ahead with operations to ensure freedom of navigation in disputed waters and elsewhere. :hmmm:

With the joint Russian-Chinese exercise next month in the Sea of Japan...