SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - Eurozone deal reached without UK

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Amongst all the jolly politicking the other day, did they forget:

1) EZ banks are insolvent.
2) several EZ countries are insolvent
3) squeezing 17 countries into 1 currency doesn't work.
4) the euro has no lender of last resort.
5) Italy has to refinance 300 billion euro by April - next 100
days.

Although S & M (ha) are breaking their arms patting themselves on the back, they appear not to have resolved any of the above.

There are many question marks, and I assume that we will see the "markets" realising them in the next week.

What the summit has brought in substance, is this:

1. the EU isolates itself from the UK :)

2. There is an agreeement that one would author an agreement in Spring next year (! Yes, that is March or April next year, until then: nothing happens, so says the plan :D)

3. Part of the second stability pact after the one already in place right now is that the automatic sanction to pounish deficit violators may come automatically, but can be suspended by majorty vote of the Euro government heads. The debt-ridden countries and poor netto-receivers form the majoirty by these votes already now, so we all know how these sanctions will end: thy will be suspended, becasue there is honouir amongst thieves and one hawk will not pick another hawk's eye. France wonderfully creamed Germany there: still having the option that the French demand for Eurobonds get fulfilled one way or the other, later, but the German demand for automatic sanctions already neutralised on the day it got formally accepted.

4. The plan to pay 200 billion to the ICF so that it would assist in return to bail out European deliquents already is set to collapse. Washington already signalled that it would not play ball - and the ICF IS Washington for the most.

5. In general, new paper formulations to be written down in some months shall suddenly be followed while the paper-formulations beign valid treaties right now already get ignoired and violated. Where is this optimism coming from? The demand that the trety should instead become part of the dicatte of Lisbon to give it the appearance of greater obligation, successfully got tackled, too.

So I am wondering: what are they celebrating themselves for? Crisis will be back on the doorsteps - and long before Christmas days. Maybe already next week when we see market reactions after having digested the poor substance of this summit.

The only really - though probably maybe just temporary - positive thing is that the increase of debts by letting the ECB buying toxic state bonds unblimited and issuing Eurobonds still has been prevented. The loss of trust is due to doubts that states are willing and will ever be able to serve their debts. Making even more and more debts in one almost explosive raise of them thus can hardly be the answer. I only fear that this German success is just meant to falter, too. The collectivisation of debts I fear will come, under any label, by any mechanism to acchieve it by effect, no matter how it is beign called then.

Loser in influence is England so far, I think, and maybe it will even leave the EU. Clear winner is France. Germany feels as a winner, but as I said: Sarkozy just creamed Merkel. And I think she is not even aware of it, like it has been several times before in the past years. I tend to see Germany as the loser of this summit, too. It's just that the reasons for that are somewhat hidden, not to be seen at first glance. They will make themselves felt in the longer run.

England will maintain it's prominence as the european capital for finance (open to debate and subject to differing opinions/viewpoints of coursr) but all in all what has just happened is a recipe for disaster, a stalling tactic at best.

Come on Cameron.....give the electorate a referendum.

I don't think the full facts will come to light until after Xmas now, the EU in pie high and everything looks a little calmer now. Once the Xmas booze is flushed out there body and the hang overs are over we will see what unfolds in the new year.

BBC has these three comments by a French, a Polish and a German, and all of them focus on valid aspects and express scepticism.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16116336

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird (Post 1803160)

BBC has these three comments by a French, a Polish and a German, and all of them focus on valid aspects and express scepticism.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16116336

Quote:

Alan Posener, political correspondent, Die Welt, Germany

Angela Merkel is covering her tracks. She is the main person responsible for this problem, though she is now pretending it wasn't her.

I can only hope when Germany holds there general election you kick out the poison dwarf.

Quote:

Britain and the EU

The Failure of a Forced Marriage

A Commentary by Wolfgang Kaden

Was the outcome of the Brussels summit a bad one for the EU? Not at all. The British were never completely dedicated to European unity and the ongoing project of greater fiscal integration is better off without them.

It was to be expected. And now it's official: The British have elected not to join the treaty governing Europe's new financial system. Prime Minister David Cameron refused.

Does that mean, then, that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have failed? Not at all. Only incompetent amateurs could have believed that London would join the attempt to overcome the European debt crisis together. European leaders in Brussels hammered out an agreement that marks the end of unlimited fiscal sovereignty -- and that conflicts fundamentally with the British understanding of Europe.

The result of Thursday night -- the 17 euro-zone countries joined by nine others pending parliamentary approval in three of the non-euro-zone capitals -- is a success. A success for the majority of Europeans and for efforts to find a solution to the euro crisis. Any deal with the obstreperous British would have been a weak compromise, and one that would have allowed questionable economic practices to continue.

But from the very beginning, Great Britain's participation in a united Europe was a misunderstanding. When the EU was founded, the British still hadn't finished mourning over their lost empire. Europe seemed far away and Continental efforts at unification were seen by many among the British elite as little more than naïve idealism.

Despite such doubts, the EU became a reality, and a success -- and it was economic realities that ultimately led London to join. Companies in the UK pushed the government toward Brussels because staying away was far too risky economically.

Grave Misgivings

Still, the political classes in Britain never fully shared the Continental conviction that the European Union was an absolute political necessity following two destructive world wars in the 20th century. They never fully believed that Europe had to grow together, despite all the cultural, linguistic and societal differences.

In the 1960s, the empire was history, with one colony after the other declaring independence. But instead of turning toward Europe, Britain looked west to the US. And to this day, the UK feels much closer to America than it does to the frogs and the krauts on the other side of the English Channel. One could see the strength of that bond as recently as 2003, when then-Prime Minister Tony Blair joined President George W. Bush in his Iraq adventure despite grave misgivings on the Continent.

In Brussels, which has for decades been depicted in the British press as little more than a bureaucratic monster, London has mostly played but a single role from the very beginning: that of a spanner in the works. There has hardly been a decision aimed at greater European integration that Britain hasn't sought to block. And it was a role that even brought financial benefits. Ever since Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher famously demanded "I want my money back," Britain has had to contribute less to the EU than the size of its economy would otherwise require.

To avoid misunderstandings, it is important to note that Britain is a fabulous country, as are its people. Their finely honed humor, tolerance, composure, language, culture and, yes, their worldliness are all to be praised and envied. Germans particularly, with their predisposition to overwrought fear, could learn a lot from the British.

Demanding a Say

But the UK and the EU was a source of frustration for decades. On the long term, a member cannot demand all of the benefits of a community while refusing to shoulder its share of the burdens. One can't constantly seek to thwart all efforts at greater European integration while at the same time demanding a say in all decisions.

Great Britain is an EU member that never truly wanted to be part of the club. It was more of an observer than a contributor and it always had one eye on Washington. Indeed, it is telling that the country never joined the border-free travel regime known as Schengen -- Britain still checks everybody who enters the country from the other side of the Channel. The political establishment was likewise extremely skeptical of the common currency from the very beginning.

It is true that much of the criticism was spot on, which is why the euro zone is now in crisis and in need of repair. But it wasn't really the design shortcomings which led the British to stay out of the euro zone. Rather, it was their independence -- one could say currency nationalism -- which led to the country remaining on the outside.

Though that hardly kept them from acting at EU summits as though they had long since introduced the euro. At the summit before last, in fact, Sarkozy even lost his cool, telling Cameron "you missed a good opportunity to keep your mouth shut." The French president continued: "We are sick of you criticizing us and telling us what to do. You say you hate the euro and now you want to interfere in our meetings."

Only One Possible Answer

Now, finally, there is a clear line of separation. On the one side is euro-Europe with a treaty obligating them to stay within clear budgetary and sovereign debt boundaries. And there is the rest which still has complete sovereign control over their finances. The 17 euro-zone member states will no longer be forced to accommodate a country that rejects anything that smells like supra-nationalism.

There is certain to be a debate over the question as to how a divided Europe should continue. But that doesn't have to be a disadvantage. Such a debate has been necessary for a long time and conflicts can not always be avoided. Sometimes, a bit of bickering is necessary to create clarity.

The questions for Britain, however, are equally difficult. What exactly is the country's role in the EU? British historian Timothy Garton Ash, a critic of the euro-skeptic course followed by the Cameron administration, said recently in an interview with SPIEGEL: "If the euro zone is saved, there will be a fiscal union, which means a political union of the euro countries.... Then, in the next two, three or four years, we in Great Britain will face the final question: in or out?"

If the British political class does not undergo a fundamental transformation, there is only one possible answer. Out.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...802933,00.html

I pretty much agree with the above. I attack and criticise like and obsessed at times :DL, I know I know - but I also said that after its destruction it needs to be replaced and that the European national economies need close coordination and one voice towardsa the outside of Europe - else the global economic competitorsd will eat the single national economies in Europe one by one. My problem with the EU is the feudal attitude, and that it wants to be so very much more than economic coordination.

I have absolute doubts that Britain would ever agree to give up that part of national sovereignity that would be necessary a sacrifice by any European participant in such coordination.

Whether that coordination ever has a realistic chance in Europe to not get qabused by nations for own interest, or to be comnpromised for own advanatge, is something different. It is the way to go - whether one fails in accomplishing it, or not.

Quote:

Originally Posted by STEED (Post 1803190)

I can only hope when Germany holds there general election you kick out the poison dwarf.

And what do you expect to get in exchange for her? A socialist-green or a socialist-communist coalition more to your taste? Both is possible, though the latter not too likely. But the first is one of the two dominant possibilities.

Currently I would give a coalitition of CDU and SPD the highest probability to win elections, which means a very good probability that things would move on like right now.

The liberal FDP, in coalition right now and having fallen from 18 to 2%, I have no longer on my radar. The probably fell into the gutter when jogging. They are not being missed.

There is a fundamental factor in the UK that IMHO overrides all else, regardless of whether it be political, fiscal or economic opinion and or speculation by these so called 'experts'.....

No political party in the UK has yet won a mandate to make the ultimate decision as to what the UK is going to eventually decide on the politically hot potato of the EU....and no party has the courage to make said decision without a referendum because that would be party political suicide for at least the next generation.

The only true way forward is for each party to include in their next pre-election manifesto what their clear position is and give a definitive timescale on said committment.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rockstar (Post 1803151)

http://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/a...0_1420999a.jpg

:up:

So pleased this man has finally realised that he is the British Prime minister.

And as for the Euro as a currency, it may take a while but....

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning"

Now where's the Referrendum?

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbuna (Post 1803221)

The only true way forward is for each party to include in their next pre-election manifesto what their clear position is and give a definitive timescale on said committment.

Are yes what we are not going to do but we will say what it takes to get elected. :shifty:

Up the revolution, smash the corrupt state. :rock:

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/6043/cwjmo111209.gif

Greece and Spain are closest to her hairy armpits.

And another critic who is angry that those Germans do not will to just sit and pay for the debts of all others to give the market another 3-day rally before it gets bored again! ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird (Post 1803278)

And another critic who is angry that those Germans do not will to just sit and pay for the debts of all others to give the market another 3-day rally before it gets bored again! ;)

Right your on Sky, which one? :DL

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