SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - Obama opens up his lead

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- - Obama opens up his lead (https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=138579)

Now what/ Well, a tie is just as relevant to Novembers election as a statistically insignificant lead.

Actually, that TIME article's last paragraph is a decent summation

Quote:

Unlike McCain, however, no amount of careful brand positioning will stop an Obama presidency from signifying undeniable and historic change: he would be the first black President, the first Democrat in the White House since Bill Clinton and the first President of his generation. He has already revolutionized the way people donate to, and help organize, campaigns. All of which means that Obama faces a unique political challenge. As he tries to maintain the fervent grass-roots enthusiasm that has gotten him this far while appealing to enough independents to take him to the White House, the Illinois Senator must both disprove and prove the old adage that the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

Now what?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Ga...n-Tied-45.aspx

Lol...let the debates begin...and then we can come back to the polls.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

Now what?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Ga...n-Tied-45.aspx

The 'No opinion' are likely republicans, so add them to the McCain camp.

-S

Quote:

Originally Posted by SUBMAN1

Quote:

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

Now what?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Ga...n-Tied-45.aspx

The 'No opinion' are likely republicans, so add them to the McCain camp.

-S

thereby increasing the accuracy of the survey :-?

McCain isn't attracting full Republican support anyway, same way Obama isn't getting all the Dems.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex Koppelman

As a colleague observed to me today, you know a campaign is worried about its poll numbers when it actually sends around a memo arguing that the polling involved was done badly. Well, that's what John McCain's campaign did today, distributing a memo we've made available for download in PDF form here.

Polls are just a data source. They are not intrinsically right or wrong. There are many variables in interpreting poll results and there are many biases (some intentional, many unintentional.

I would point out that these are June polls and have historically been not that accurate.

November is a long time away, we can't get excited/upset over every single poll over the next four months.

The polls typically show the democrat nominee ahead (Bush was behind in the polls during the past two elections and still won). The electoral votes are what counts anyway. Dukakis was 15 points ahead in the polls while he lost big time to Reagan. Take what you may, but pollsters typically poll in democrat areas. They have access to voter registration information and utilize it to skew results.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v4...g?t=1214435093

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November is a long time away, we can't get excited/upset over every single poll over the next four months.

Sure is more time.....to find more skeletons in Obamas and McCains closets. :roll: I hope it does not get ugly.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

Sure is more time.....to find more skeletons in Obamas and McCains closets. :roll: I hope it does not get ugly.

With all due respect to your position as a moderator......your hope is unreasonable.

It will continue to get ugly. I honestly don't think we have seen ugly yet. That is what American politics is. :down:

I wish it were different... I truly do :cry:

Quote:

Originally Posted by JetSnake

Take what you may, but pollsters typically poll in democrat areas.

Do you have a citation for this or is this just your opinion?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Platapus

Quote:

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

Sure is more time.....to find more skeletons in Obamas and McCains closets. :roll: I hope it does not get ugly.

I was being fictitious:rotfl: Of course it is going to get ugly. (Note)Position as a moderator has no meaning in this discussion. Just yesterday the media was taking pictures of McCains head because he had a small bandage on it. Our media hard at work looking for bandages on McCain...not much mentioned on Obama's smoking habit. I'm sure that will be along in the near future.

We really need to get some debates rolling.

Those little township home meetings McCain has suggested have Obama running scared. He wants the big crowds supporting him like he had in Austin, Texas for the Texas primary, because with a big crowd they tend to take sides.

A small crowd is more reflective, more serious about the answers to important questions of Obama's ability to run a country the size of the USA.

McCain will shine in those debates ... he's a foxy old pro at handling the younger Obama.

Seventeen more weeks till we know for sure ...

barry has already declined to debate in no more than 1 or 2 town hall meeting for that reason. Even though they would not admit it, the guy knows he cannot dodge the unfriendly curve balls that will be pitched his way.

Neither man is an accomplished debater. McCain prefers to speak alone to small groups, Obama is a polished public speaker at rallies etc.

To those saying that polls mean nothing - That is true in teh sense that they don't tell us now, in June, how the November vote will go, but they do shape the campaigns.
Feel free to ignore polling data, I guarantee the campaigns and candidates will not.

This is what McCain is going up against and what is been reflected by the polls todate:

Quote:

Obama, D-Ill., already has displayed strategic and organizing political skills that no president has exhibited since Ronald Reagan in 1980. Obama's greatest disadvantage at the start of his primary contest with Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., was not the fact that he was African-American, but that he was a freshman senator going up against the acknowledged front-runner who had been a leading figure in the Democratic Party for 16 years.

Quote:

Clinton proved to be an energetic, determined, resilient and tough campaigner who showed far greater strength in key industrial states and core Democratic constituencies than Obama did. Yet he out-organized her and out-strategized her throughout the campaign. Obama also showed cool nerve and decisiveness in refusing to be pressured or panicked by Clinton into putting her on the ticket as his running mate after she finally conceded defeat.

Quote:

In contrast to both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, Obama does not depend heavily on a political mastermind or Svengali in crafting his strategy. While he has a high-powered inner circle of advisers with whom he communes often and fruitfully, he is very clearly the captain of his own ship and charts his own course.
So far, Obama's broad strategic calls have been flawless and he has repeatedly shown a cool political head and great resilience in dealing with every kind of challenge and setback, from Clinton's comeback wins in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania to the revelations about his 20-year pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
These achievements would be impressive coming from a twice-elected governor of New York state like Franklin Roosevelt, a twice-elected governor of California like Ronald Reagan or a five-star general of the Army and former Supreme Allied Commander like Dwight D. Eisenhower. Coming from a 46-year-old first-term junior senator, they are amazing.

http://www.upi.com/news/issueoftheda...9231214402963/