Considering Iran is one of the top four oil producers and exporters in the world, that may be quite a lengthy "short" time.

This administration refuses to close our southern border because it's going to hit so many businesses who employ illegal aliens, thus reducing campaign contributions both directly and indirectly (hedge-fund CEO's having to listen to issues at dinner parties).

It utterly failed to secure the borders when invading Iraq, because it would have taken 300,000 combat soldiers and we would have had to transfer soldiers out of Korea, Japan, Germany, NATO, and the UN, as well as calling up the reserves. That would have hit our economy as well simply from all the reservists.

My point is this administration is not going to risk the oil disruptions, and Iran (the Supreme Council) knows it. We will not attack first, and if we are attacked, the priority will be defense of the Gulf traffic. We will deploy fleets to make it look like we're doing something but if it ever actually goes to combat, the main focus will be to keep the Arabian Gulf open to oil tankers. There will be absolutely no invasion of Iran and bombing will be minimal along the coast against AA batteries and static missile platforms.

Won't be enough, though. If I was Iran, I would have some kind of plan to physically blockade the Hormuz strait. The best thing would be to sink several tankers to create an actual physical barrier, but I'm not certain of the water depth. It's probably a couple hundred feet -- If it's less than 100, then Katie-bar-the-door.