I'd agree with the above but whichever way it goes will see a weakening of Merkels status in not just the EU but also in the eyes of the German electorate. Germany have paid a huge price keeping Greece in the EU.

One further problem would then probably be a move by the French President Hollande trying to take over the mantle left by Merkel but without the financial clout behind him.

I doubt Greece would ever be trusted in financial terms by Europe or the western world for a many a year to come and the ultimate consequence would see the country falling on her knees, possibly never to recover, at least not in our lifetimes.

One probability (a hint of sarcasm here) will be cheap holidays for everyone, in a country that would have little to offer to the holidaymaker in ways of a viable tourism industry.

Merkel is a difficult one to figure, the German electorate are not easy to predict. I honestly would have thought she wouldn't have survived last years election, but she does seem to be quite a strong lady and Germany tends to respect strength. Trouble is whether she has the willpower to use that strength against Greece trying to renegotiate the terms of the bailout, and whether she has the power behind her to enforce her will.
But yes, this isn't going to do her any favours, and it'll undermine her position in the Grand Coalition, but it's hard to say if there's any political power in Germany capable of doing anything against her. :hmmm:

Not just the Greek left, but the left throughout Europe are celebrtaing in Greece. That is a signal of things to come. Whjat it means? That the Euro will complete its journey to turn the EU into a collective "Schuldenhaftungsunion" (union of collective reponsibility for debts), which will ease the way for even more centralization of planning by the EU.

You have read Atlas Shrugged yourself, Neal. The Greek have retold another chapter from that. From that novel, you know what it means. Since I read it two years ago, the parallels to reality do not stop to stun me.

And I still claim that the Euro from all beginning on was planned and intended to become right this, and nothing else.

The lack of reforms in the political structures of Greece, are telling volumes. And the ordinary people still believes in self-glorifying and self-victimizing illusions. "Us proud and great Greeks! Oh look how bad the world treats us - they do not want to pay for us eternally! And this although we have so famous lifeless ruins collecting dust!"

Of course they have the right to want to live in decent living conditions. But they have no right to demand that others have to eternally pay for that - they have the right to change themselves and their country,. however, and to change things in such a way that wishes and claims, and what they can afford, meet in a balance.

But that is not what the political left wants, in Greece and elsewhere. The left always wants a free ride towards maximum claims, paid for by stealing from others. The question of what actually can be afforded, never gets asked by them.

The young Greeks are best advised to try to make their fortune outside Greece, like many Irish and Germans have done in the past when going to America - again, for reasons of poverty at home. Well-trained workers and academics are much wanted in other countries, namely Germany. If they wish, they can try to finance their home country from these other places by supporting those that left behind, or they can use the success they may have in other countries to return and then try to rebuild Greece. That are bitter choices and they are not for the fearful, but that is the state of things today, and they have nobody else to hold responsible for their situation than themselves, their excessive spending that theri nation's GDP never could afford in the past, and their unwillingness to send their corrupt political elites to hell and burn out their hilarious joke of a hopelessly overblown administrative bureaucracy, has brought them to this pass. It has been themselves, and nobody else. But as I see it, self-deception and illusions about the real reasons for their present mess have not shrunk in past seven years. And corrupted political elites support these follies because they feed their own powerinterest from them.

You can dream of better living conditions, and you have the right trying to work for achieving that. But you have no right to just make a claim for them, and then demanding others to finance it for you.

Hm, Syriza goes together not with separate socialists or communist party, but the rightwingers... The probably only thing they share with them is their hostility towards the EU asnd the debt troika, so I think their choice of alliance indicates what they are going after, by priority. But except Syriza I have not learned that much about the other parties they have in Greece. More surprises to come?

Treaties yes or no, I hope the simply leave the Euro and get back the Drachme. The losses for Germany are losses that will become manifest anyway, whether with more delay at the cost of even higher final bills to settle, or not - in the Eurozone, the liability of banks towards private customers is almost 27 times as banks' saved and stored really assets, so one must wonder if it really makes any difference any more.

Think of it: the relation between sight deposites, and debt-based credit notes, is 1:27 in the Eurozone. Growing. - There is no escape from the devil exacting what is his.

Zorba the Comrade

I rather wait and see than speculate. :)

My favourite part of Atlas Shrugged was the chapter headed "Financial crises within a sub-optimal currency union - Electoral consequences".

Rand really hit the nail on the head there.

There's some ceiling in my soup.

Thanks for the analysis. :yeah: I have not been keeping current on these small countries and their economic issues, other than being aware they are deep in debt (why? Can nations have a gambling problem or a need brother in law...?) so I can see why they would vote for the Socialists, but will that fix the underlying issues?

More big state, more state-run business, more money form Germany - this interview with their new finance minister (tba) shows where the journey is going to. And it is a fearsome outlook.

https://translate.google.de/translat...tml&edit-text=

Original text in French La Tribune:
http://www.latribune.fr/actualites/e...a-changer.html

He gives it all yet again a romantic, backwards-oriented touch. This cannot hide that "more state", "more socialism", cannot be the answer to anything. Also, it cannot hide that in the end he intends to plunder net payer nations of their taxes, no matter what catchy phrases and heroic words he dresses his intention into. What he intends, is not different from what Kirchner tried in Argentina - betraying creditors who were stupid enough (or were forced by states) to once again lend a de factor bankrupt Greece more money, doing that against all reason, and now refusing to pay back the money that Greece has gotten. This is robbery, plain and simple. The dubious role of the ECB - which I certainly do not love nor defend - does not change the basic facts.

I wonder what kind of drugs he is on.

Greeks. They already made the Romans curse. And before the Romans, the Egyptians. And them both were stronger, more reasonable actors on the historic stage, than the EU ever has been.

Let'S not distract by evading into discussions about history and dignity, Mr. Varoufakis. Let's talk money you took and now owe, let'S talk hard solid facts, let'S talk material reality in the resent. Lets talk the difference between daydreaming illusions - and dealing with reality.

It's exactly the opposite. She isn't doing much and always let's her ministers do the dirty work. That's why nothing sticks to her because it was always someone else. She hasn't been doing much except continuing Gerhard Schröder's Agenda 2010 (for which he got thrown out of office by the German electorate btw.). The only thing she excels at is to eliminate competitors. All other big guys in the CDU who could have become a danger to her throne have politically vanished one after another (Merz, Oettinger, Stoiber, Wulff the list probably goes on) and the opposition has no charismatic person who could win over the people.:/\\!!

Guess I have to wait and not speculate. To see if they want to leave and what the respond from EU will be.

Markus

Sadly, I doubt it, the problems are too big for such an ideolistic party to solve, and what the people want, Greece really can't afford. The best they can hope for is a slight easing of the situation that they're in, but even that might be writing a cheque the Greek economy can't cash.
The BBC did a Panorama on the Greek crisis back in 2012, it's worth a watch, annoyingly only half of it is available on youtube so you have to go a little further afield to find it:
http://www.theresistanceseries.com/w...tLW7yubbYFKD2C

It gives a good insight into the situation on the ground, something that a lot of the news reports tend to overlook, focusing on select groups of people.

Ah, the teflon don type, I think that a lot of the western nations are suffering from the lack of charismatic people in opposition problem at the moment, the US has had that problem, the UK has that problem, and it always concerns me a bit that if someone from the outside was to come in with an agenda, who a truckload of charisma, then that person would start getting votes on that alone, just because he or she is different from the normal politician, no matter what their policies might be.
There's definitely a change in the air in Europe, it probably isn't the catastrophic collapse of the EU that Skybird predicts, but things are definitely going to change in the next decade or two, the question is for the worse or better. :hmmm:

I think the Greeks will soon regret that they voted at all, or for Syriza.

Tsipris made so many promises that he must fail on most of them, necessarily. To fulfill them, Greece would need additionally 40 billion, calculations show. He will not get that money.

What counts more is that Tsipris probably already has lost. The stockmarkets seem to be completely unimpressed by the prosepct of a Grexit or stay within the Euro. Which can only mean: it is no longer relevant what Greece does. And that means that Tsipris has no threat card to play by which to blackmail the creditors.

I assume we will see in the coming days desperate attempts by him to raise the stakes - the stakes for the creditors, so that Greece becomes more relevant again, so that creditors must/will accept "compromises". And he probably will find that he has overestimated his cards there. His bluff will collapse.

The only real danger I see is that Greece's example encourages other countries and left politicians to start opposing the policy of structural reformation and austerity. A unification of the left opposition throughout the Euro zone could mean the end to any structural reforms - as far as these even are tried. France for example avoids realising the need for them to be really and seriously run until today. Then there is Italy. Spain.

Sounds like something out of the walking dead.:haha: