Had a little conversation today with a friend.

Supposed that the Chineese will let NK attack, the US sends its forces to the peninsula into a costly war that will keep them occupied enough for China to seize Taiwan :hmmm:

There are many permutations to be considered but hopefully a US/SK victory would be the best result should it ever come to war.

The snag is, the US doesn't have to send that many forces into the ROK to combat the DPRK, the ROK is very well armed in modern equipment and if the DPRK crossed the DMZ it would cross into a very carefully orchestrated killzone that has been fifty years in the making.
When you couple that to the fact that the PRC lacks a major naval invasion force and the logistical ability to support it (although it is working towards one) plus the fact that any invasion of Taiwan would deep-six the PRCs economy (most of their exports and imports are to and from Taiwan and Japan, and Japans trade has been affected by the recent tensions over the Senkaku islands) which is already been slowed down by the global slump. I doubt the PRC would be as reckless as to try something like that until they are fully absolutely ready to take Taiwan quickly and with minimal damage to its economic infrastructure. Some people reckon they might be in a position to do so by 2018-2020 but I think 2030 is probably the more likely date. The Chinese tend to think of things decades ahead of most other world powers, good chess players and all that.

If I was the PRC?
This would be a fine way to take NK as a 'peace keeping force' should the shooting start.
They'd have boots on the ground faster then anyone could respond without escalating things to the 'stupid' level.

:yep: Likewise. It wouldn't take too much, although there are quite a few DPRK forces up north, but most of their heavy equipment is pointing south. Would be over within a week. The only problem would be the risk of a refugee crisis, but since the PRC would need minimal forces to take the DPRK they can keep a load on the border to shoot anyone who tries to cross.
Then it's a case of opening up the DPRK to Chinese businesses, quite a ripe environment to exploit there, and you keep the buffer zone between South Korea and the PRC border.

I don't think there would be a refuge crisis for the most part.
The PRC has the resources to handle a situation like that on a short term basis anyway.
And as they would be coming from the North?
I'd figure anyone running from the PRC would be heading South!
That would put stress on any NK Troop/supply movements as an added WTF do we do now?

US/SK whack the main forces in the South, PRC over runs any Units to the North.

Once the PRC has the ground (They have Boots on!), they sue for peace and probably win.

Given the PRC's designs on the other areas in that region?

It's nearly perfect for a take over with far reaching results.

(I'm a long time player of RISK with modified rules)

North Korea is on the border of both China and Russia, if NK goes to war with SK and SK wins with the help of the US what would China and Russia do?:hmmm:
Seem that neither China or Russia would allow the US to be right on their borders/doorsteps!!:o

That's why I would invade NK if I was the PRC and shooting started!
You'd own that buffer zone then.
Down the road? It's a probable invasion route that you now command.

Well, let's put it this way. You're a starving North Korean, there are men with guns to the north and south of you, but to the south there's also a massive minefield and even more guns than to the north. You want food, there's food over the border in the Peoples Republic of China, and the PRC will be coming in not as oppressors but as friends. So, why not head to China, the economic success story of the world?
The entire reason the PRC has mobilized its forces on the North Korean border is both to shut the PRC hardliners up who would be screaming that there are American bombers and fighters streaming into South Korea, and to guard the DPRK/PRC border against a wave of hungry North Koreans crossing the border. That's also primarily what the North Korean border guards are for, up on the Russian and Chinese borders, to stop people fleeing the country.
China can't handle hundreds or thousands of starving people, it would have to feed and clothe these people, and then encorporate them into the Chinese system somehow...which is at the moment in a rather perilous position of starting to slow down.
Most DPRK troops encountering PRC forces would probably just surrender, they would realise that it's all over, some would fight to the death, but most would probably down tools and wait for the new boss to arrive, or try their luck crossing the border into China.
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/c...korea-refugees

Basically, the North Korean issue is to China what the Mexican issue is to America, and if a civil war broke out in Mexico, how do you think the US/Mexico border would cope? It just wouldn't, not unless a whole shedload of National Guard units rocked up alongside it, and that's what the PRC has done, put extra forces on the border to prevent refugees from crossing when the DPRK finally finishes backing itself into a corner and is forced to do something stupid.

Personally, I think that this will end with an exchange of fire across the DMZ, but I don't think that it will escalate much further than that, hopefully North Korean casualties will give Kim Jr the distraction to the people he needs, and his willingness to open fire on the South will help cement him in with the generals. I honestly can't see the DPRK launching a full scale offensive across the DMZ, it would be suicide, and I don't picture the DPRK willingly committing suicide.
If, however, they do decide to do so, then it will depend entirely on the response of the US and ROK as to whether the PRC will get involved. If the US and ROK are content to hold the DPRK at the 38th parallel and pound Pyongyang into rubble with the airforce then the PRC will probably just grumble, call for peace and march troops around the border.
If the US and the ROK actively push into North Korea and head for Pyongyang, then the PRC might well pull a Russia in the Kosovan war (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inciden...istina_airport) and send all its tanks to Pyongyang airport in order to end the war quickly and keep the Korean peninsula divided. I think that under the circumstances, the US and ROK would be willing to go along with this, provided the PRC keeps the DPRK under control and dismantles its nuclear equipment, which Beijing would be only too happy to do, since they have a load already.

We will see. :yep:

Any offense to the south will take care of mine fields.
(Unless they are self breeding)
People in a panic run away from what they fear.
Even if it may mean death should the dice land wrong.
Takeing into the matter of a small amount of human lifes?
I'd tend to think PRC looks at the numbers differently then you or I.

I wonder if the average North Korean knows anything about China or even what's waiting outside the DMZ. I understand state control of information is total.

Now it can be shown why there is such a push to ban high capacity handgun magazines.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=olWDjR4ECbM

At least it does show that KJU can handle a handgun.....not. :nope:

I'd like to think the average 'Kim' has information.
That's the one thing you can't stop from flowing.

When I accend my proper Throne?
I shall stop all flow of information!
Thus freeing all from anxiety for future events!

And I will be, Umm....
:hmmm:

BRUCE!
I will be BRUCE The Greatest!
(My first purge will be Bruce's down under! All 17 of them!)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Area_De...llery_Munition

I don't know if the PRC would want to risk sending their forces in, in case it does escalate. If someone on either side decides to get stupid and opens fire and PLA troops are killed, then it turns a bad situation worse.

I think the Chinese might be more receptive to a unified Korea under the ROK than some might think. Sure they lose some of their cheap labor but they gain direct access to one of the richest and tech savvy countries in Asia that has about half of its new population which needs to be brought in to the 21st century (sales opportunity), and with out an evil North Korea to worry the world there is less reason for US presence in the Peninsula.

which would remove a thoorn in the side of the chinese naval and regional strategies and facilitate that expansion.

nice way of thinking.