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-   -   Iran Enriches Uranium- Now's the Time to Strike (https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=91962)

The Avon Lady 04-13-06 12:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GunnersMate
Mount an airstrike and blame on the Israelis. ;) :yep: :up:

Just for that, in protest, I have told my kids to put their long range jetpacks back in the storage room.

That'll teach yas.

MadMike 04-13-06 01:44 PM

Hysterical Mike "Red October" Hense writes-

"yes... now's definitely the time to strike... by all means, lets unleash a unprecedented attack on Iran... kill off the entire Iranian nation...

what would you suggest we use MMike... nucs, conventionals, biologicals, harsh language...

i dunno... have ya stopped to think past the immediate consequences on this move Mike... i mean, once you irradiate all the oil over there, the cost of that new set of wheels you're gonna want to buy is gonna rocket sky high..."

You obviously didn't bother to fully read my post. Who said anything about using nukes?
The facts are obvious and clear. Iranian nuclear facilities must be put out of order, and the quicker the better (whether it's the Israeli Air Force or USN/USAF).

Yours, Mike

Skybird 04-13-06 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Konovalov
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike 'Red Ocktober' Hense
read winning the peace by ret gen zinni... he has served... honorably...

his comments...
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/...in618896.shtml

view his his interview on the same page...

yeah, i stand up and applaud this guy...


(the borg... rotflmao :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: good one)

--Mike

I'm sure there will be many attempts to discredit the guy and not his arguments as is the way things seem to operate over there. there probably will be some kiddy porn allegations, or he is only out to sell a book, or he is a bitter old man ra ra ra. I agree with what you have to say on this one.

Zinni, a book, and co-authored with Tom Clancy, well, the military books (not the novels) by Tom Clancy surely are not the kind of literature I would trust blindly, but the book Clancy co-authored with ret. gen. Fred Franks (Into The Storm) was spectacularly good - in those chapters that had been written by Franks himself, concerning the matter I see it as a mandatory reading. If Zinni also had written the deciding chapters himself, I might be willing to spend money for this book as well.

Ducimus 04-13-06 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kapitan
America has poked its nose in many a time in forign affairs only to get it smacked out of joint.


Im going to use this opportunity to be a little angry. Do we stick our noses in alot of things? Yup. I'd never deny or disagree with that. As a serviceman, ive been in far too many place, most of which id never care to see, nor see again. I do not see my country as being victimzed (IE, "Poor us! waaahh"), nor the great guardian of "freedom" (its become a meangless rhetorical buzzword now, and hearing it makes my gut wrench)... but.....

We are damned if we do, and w'ere damned if we don't. In so many facets of the world community, there is alot expected of us. Foreign aid, UN support, etc. Im not very well versed in the details, i only know that if we were to withdrawl all support, from the global community, there would be probably an almost equal outry as sending troops to some islamic rathole like iraq or afganistan.

The people ive met in this world, up front, they seem to like your money and what your presence can do for their economy, but the instant you turn your back their quick to sink a knife into it. "welcome" on one hand, and "F**k you GI" on the other. Yes i'm bitter. Korea's a great example of that. Personnaly i wish we'd withdraw ALL of our troops, my hope is those bastards resume their civil war and blow themselves to bits, and id laugh, without the slightest twinge of guilt over feeling the way i do. I think illl add Iraq to that list too. They can all go to hell.

To summerize my bitterness, if there were a president to have this as his campaing platorm,

http://bvml.org/webmaster/patton.html
i would vote for him and not bat an eyelash about it:






Quote:

Originally Posted by Kapitan
a*kers made up just so some little retard we call bush can go to war?

WAS IT WORTH IT ?

What do you think genius? Depends on who you ask. American opinion is divided on this issue. Personnaly im not into the blame game. Too late for that horse**** now. Was it worth it or who's responsible doesnt mean crap right now. The only thing that does matter is, What are we going to do about it. I have friends/comrades still in uniform over there, and if i was still in, id be over there too. Life sucks as a combat engineer.





as an aside, my apologies ahead of time for this tangent rant of a post. The simmering teapot boiled over so to speak.

Kapitan 04-14-06 01:39 AM

The was it worth it question was directed soley at iceman, but thankyou for answering :D

The Avon Lady 04-14-06 01:48 AM

Cox & Forkum hit the mark again:

http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/7215/08eh.gif

Mike 'Red Ocktober' Hense 04-14-06 06:06 AM

Quote:

Hysterical Mike "Red October" Hense writes-
if anyone's hysterical, it's you... just look at the title of your topic...

STRIKE NOW!!!!

do you have any idea whatsoever how long it would take them to make enough enriched, weapons grade uranium, to be able to produce even a small nuclear bomb...

you don't know one single fact about what you are babbling about... yet you are ready to set defcon1 and flush the bombers...

... and yet you have the audacity to call someone else hysterical :doh:

educate yourself...

Quote:

The Clock is Ticking, But How Fast?
By David Albright and Corey Hinderstein The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) March 27, 2006

..........
..........

Recent comments by US officials about Iran’s timeline to nuclear weapons differ from official, community-wide US intelligence assessments. In testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee on February 2, 2006, John Negroponte, Director of National Intelligence, stated that Iran is judged as probably having neither a nuclear weapon nor the necessary fissile material for a weapon. He added that if Iran continues on its current path, it “will likely have the capability to produce a nuclear weapon within the next decade." The basis for this estimate remains classified, although press reports state that Iran’s lack of knowledge and experience in running large numbers of centrifuges is an important consideration. Most interpret Negroponte’s remark to mean that Iran will need 5-10 years before it possesses nuclear weapons. (http://www.isis-online.org/publicati...rancascade.pdf).
Quote:

By WILLIAM J. BROAD and DAVID E. SANGER
Published: March 5, 2006

............
............
Estimates of just when Iran might acquire a nuclear weapon range from alarmist views of only a few months to roughly 15 years. American intelligence agencies say it will take 5 to 10 years for Iran to manufacture the fuel for its first atomic bomb. Most forecasters acknowledge that secret Iranian advances or black market purchases could produce a technological surprise.
Quote:

Thursday, March 23, 2006

Iran and the Bomb, View From Moscow

March 23, 2006
RIA Novosti news agency.
United Press International

............
............

Q. Back to Iran. Can it ultimately create a nuclear weapon?

A. Of course, it can. Any highly developed country can do this, it's available on the Internet, if you like. The truth is that one needs much money and time. In the case of Iran, I think, they will do it in five to 10 years. I mean, they will be able to build a basic nuclear weapon. This weapon will not be as modern as Russian or American, but it does not matter --
these people, who, by the way, have a very good idea about what they are talking about, seem to think that STRIKING em NOW might be just a lil premature...

yup... you seem to be the hysterical one here...

ignorance... that is the only basis for you alarmist post... ignorance of any fact, extrapolation of fact, or anything resembling fact, from which to draw a rational opinion...

you can join the cartoon girl above, and open your eyes wide shut as well...

--Mike

Skybird 04-14-06 06:35 AM

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4908948.stm

Abraham 04-14-06 06:56 AM

Iran Enriches Uranium- Now's the Time to Strike
 
@ All:
Let's keep the discussions civil, let's not call names and let's not provoke other forum members.

Abraham

(with moderator cap on)

The Avon Lady 04-14-06 07:09 AM

Snippets:
Quote:

The Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF) at Isfahan has continued to operate since its restart in August 2005, following the breakdown in the suspension. By late February 2006, Iran had produced about 85 tonnes of uranium hexafluoride, where the quantity refers to uranium mass. With roughly 5 tonnes of uranium hexafluoride needed to make enough HEU for a nuclear weapon, this stock represents enough natural uranium hexafluoride for over 15 nuclear weapons. Although this uranium hexafluoride contains impurities that can interfere with the operation of centrifuges and reduce their output, most IAEA experts believe that Iran can overcome this problem and believe this problem has been overblown in the media. Iran is known to be working to improve the purity of its uranium hexafluoride. If necessary, Iran could use its existing stock of impure material, if it had no other material. It could take additional steps to purify this uranium hexafluoride, or it could use the material in its own centrifuges and experience reduced output and a higher centrifuge failure rate.
Quote:

Given another year to make enough HEU for a nuclear weapon, where some inefficiencies in the plant are expected, and a few more months to convert the uranium into weapon components, Iran could have its first nuclear weapon in 2009. By this time, Iran is assessed to have had sufficient time to prepare the other components of a nuclear weapon, although the weapon may not be small enough to be deliverable by a ballistic missile.
Quote:

Conclusion

The international community needs to be committed to a diplomatic solution in an agreement whereby Iran voluntarily forswears having any deployed enrichment capability. Looking at a timeline of at least three years before Iran could have weapons capability means that there is still time to pursue aggressive diplomatic
and time for measures such as sanctions to have an effect, if they become necessary.

It is vital to understand what Iran has accomplished, what it still has to learn, will reach a point when a plan to pursue nuclear weapons covertly or openly succeed more quickly than the international community could react. Although estimates include significant uncertainties, they reinforce the view that Iran
foreswear any deployed enrichment capability and accept adequate inspections. Otherwise, we risk a seismic shift in the balance of power in the region.
- The Clock is Ticking, But How Fast?, by David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), March 27, 2006

Mike 'Red Ocktober' Hense 04-14-06 08:04 AM

from your own quotes...

Iran could have its first nuclear weapon in 2009

you should be able to do the math avon, madmike... 2009-2006=how much longer than NOW that everyone has...

ample time in which to take whatever action... after rationally, taking all factors into account... they even say the same thing above...

Looking at a timeline of at least three years before Iran could have weapons capability means that there is still time to pursue aggressive diplomatic
and time for measures such as sanctions to have an effect, if they become necessary.


--Mike

MadMike 04-15-06 07:43 AM

I have a little bit more insight into the subject matter than most people on this forum (I only worked on nuclear weapons for over a decade). Care to educate us?

I suppose in your eyes, the Israeli Osirak strike was unjustified. The question is not if or when the Iranians will have enrichment facilities on line, but how much weapons grade material they already possess.

Given the fact that Ahmadinijad once again threatened Isreal with annihilation, the facts speak for themselves.

Yours, Mike

Mike 'Red Ocktober' Hense 04-15-06 11:35 AM

Quote:

I have a little bit more insight into the subject matter than most people on this forum (I only worked on nuclear weapons for over a decade). Care to educate us?
that makes you an expert on what... the guidance contained in the targeting packages... the policy on first use... the physicist who knows the results of radiation contamination as a result of such use...

or maybe it was your expertise on the production of enriched uranium that made you jump up and shout STRIKE NOW... surely you inexhaustable expertise must've deduced that Iran as obtaining tons of the stuff overnight as to make them a credible and present threat...

aaahhhhhh :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: this is almost too comical... you must be stringing me along on one long joke line... surely noone could be as serious about this as you appear to be...

hey... i still have my gun card and training certifs (and a few other papers) which were required by me in my job, as we transported nukes and nuc materials throughout the european theatre during the 70s... yet you don't see me asserting myself as some nuclear expert, like you're trying to pass yourself off as... you have a bit more insight to nothing... with the possible exception of your own perceived self worth... and that is purely subjective...

i didn't see Rumsfeld or Bush calling for MadMike during any of the last couple of months... i guess they just forgot about your overwhelming expertise... right...

surely you can't expect me to take anything you say with more than a grain of salt... you are an authority on nothing except turning a few wrenches and some safety procedures...

hey, i wasn't at the SAC command post during the cold war, but i did sleep at a holiday inn the other night... that, and your grand expertise, plus 95 cents, still won't get either of us a seat on a nyc bus...

you're nobody... just like me... another nobody with an opinion...
just like me...

get used to it... there's a million of us walking around the place...

Quote:

Given the fact that Ahmadinijad once again threatened Isreal with annihilation,
you and him seem to be cut from pretty much the same mold... alarmist, over reactive, given to outburst of uncontrolled vociferous babbling... not much difference in his outburst, and yours STRIKE NOW!!!!, isn't that what you said...

do you seriously think that he is a representation of the entire geopolitical scene in Iran... or do you think that his is the ravings of a madman... eh, MADMike...

that was a rhetorical statement, and not a question... for why would i ask such a question of one so obviously incapable of answering it...

--Mike

The Avon Lady 04-15-06 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mike 'Red Ocktober' Hense
from your own quotes...

Iran could have its first nuclear weapon in 2009

you should be able to do the math avon, madmike... 2009-2006=how much longer than NOW that everyone has...

So? Do you want a gold star for you math abilities?
Quote:

ample time in which to take whatever action... after rationally, taking all factors into account... they even say the same thing above...

Looking at a timeline of at least three years before Iran could have weapons capability means that there is still time to pursue aggressive diplomatic
and time for measures such as sanctions to have an effect, if they become necessary.

So? What do you think I quoted it for? There is indeed an opinion to keep trying diplomatic channels.

Personally, I put my money on that leading nowhere. Iran is laughing in everyone's faces.

MadMike claims to have works with/on nukes. Do you have any idea what exactly his job was before you belittle him because you were a glorified nuke delivery boy?

BTW, since no one is a greater expert than you and the article I linked to doesn't really talk about it, how long would it take Iran to produce dirty nuke bombs, not from "weapons grade" material the article is discussing. Anyone else know?

MadMike 04-15-06 02:55 PM

Wow, you had a small arms certification card and were probably non-critical PRP certified... were you an SP or MP (or heaven forbid, an aircrew member?).
Nah, don't expect anyone in the Bush administration to consult me, why should they? My statements mirror my technical insight (of which you have absolutely none) into "special weapons".
However, I digress. I'm not the one writing incomplete sentences with innumerable exclamation points.
Neal Stevens has visited my website and can confirm what I did for a living. :|\ :know: ;)

Yours, Mike

Mike 'Red Ocktober' Hense 04-15-06 03:42 PM

then how in god's name would you jump to the wild claim that we should strike em now, merely because they've announce their intentions to go ahead with their enrichment program...

even i am aware that it would take many many months for them to aquire sufficient nuclear material to be able to make even one nuc... and that assumes them to be capable of even doing as much... and i don't have an atomic union card like you do...

then comes the development and testing of a credible mode of delivery...

naaahhhh madmike... from the statements you are making, you seem to be the last person i'd want to even be certified to get within 10 miles of any nuclear materials... much less have anything to do with the policies regarding their employment...

both of you ought to team up and write a doomsday novel... for children...

--Mike

TteFAboB 04-15-06 06:58 PM

Credible mode of delivery.

MadMike 04-15-06 10:15 PM

If you have a munitions background fine, we can argue points. Otherwise, we have nothing to discuss. So please feel free to list your former MOS or AFSC.

Avon Lady can verify what I did for a living (please check your PM).

Yours, Mike

Mike 'Red Ocktober' Hense 04-16-06 12:36 AM

arguement!!! why would i waste time arguing with you... you've already shown that you are prone to wild and irrational outbursts on this topic...

sorry, i've got no interest in going back and forth with someone who obviously has lil or no regard for the facts...

more rational and knowledeable people, who are a lot closer to the events than either you or i, have clearly stated their assessment of Iran's nuclear capabilities... and their statements make your position on this topic, apparent for what it is... an unqualified, alarmist kneejerk reaction...

you and avon go on without me... please... go on without me...

--Mike

Konovalov 04-16-06 12:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird
Oh my God, doomsday is just one day ahead, the sky is falling, we must strike immediately, or we all will be lost...!!! (compare to 2003: "The memo shows that Iraq now has the capability to equip a missile with biological or nuclear material and strike london with only 35 minutes prewarning")


Quote:

Iran said it had operated 164 centrifuges, creating the cascade required to achieve "industrial output" of enriched uranium.

But the process would only create the low-level enrichment needed for nuclear fuel.

Iran would need thousands of centrifuges to create the highly enriched uranium needed for nuclear weapons.

Experts say Iran is years away from having a nuclear bomb.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4902178.stm

So they have mastered one more step in a longer chain of technical developement, what a surprise. The material they can create by that (so far we only have their word for that, btw.) IS NOT sufficient to build nuclear bombs with it. It is the type of material needed in nuclear powerplants. If they currently can produce even the quantities needed for powerplants - this news does not say, it only says they now know how to do it, and that they have tested successfully their setup. doing something in an experiemntal lab, and doing it so that it produces industrial quantities is seme0thing different. Without doubt they will get there - and still would be years away from producing material that could be sued in weapons technology. An Uran-bomb or even a plutonium bomb needs further refinement of this material. There is no indication whatever that they still are not years away from acchieving that. Months before that would be the right time to give the military a prewarning. Today - probably would be years too early.

I still wait to learn how a military strike could be successful, btw. So far, noone has lined out a plan which chances for failure does not dominate it's chances for success. Players may be satisfied by that. Politicians and militaries should not.

What I say on this? Keep a sharp eye on them, but currently no need to become hysterical. The time to strike - is not now.

Words of sanity there Sky. The only slight quibble I have was the "35 minutes" thing. The claim in the September, 2002 dossier and to what PM Blair mentioned in his headline grabbing speech to the House of Commons was that Iraq could deploy weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes of an order to do so. As it turned out, it was revealed later at the Hutton inquiry that the infamous "45 minute claim" wasn't as credible as had originally been thought. It was claimed to have come from a high ranking Iraqi officer within Saddams command structure. In fact internal Foreign Office documents released at the Hutton Inquiry showed that this was not the case and that the information was based on hearsay information and second hand in nature. Later Adam Ingram, the armed forces minister, said of the claim: "That was said on the basis of security service information - a single source, it wasn't corroborated."


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