The risk of a nuclear armed Iran lies in a.) proliferation, b.) relative untouchability when engaging in sponsoring terrorism.



The Ukraine regrets to have handed over its nukes to the Russians. Libya regrets to have handedover its nukes to the Americans. Now, Iran will not regret to not hand them over ever. Nor does North Korea have any such plans.


There are some countries of which it is not officially confirmed they have nukies, but probably have. Brazil being very high on my list . I was not worried by that outlook. Then came Bolsonaro.

Very true :yep:

Hopefully it stay that way.

Markus

Murphy's Law. What ever can happen, will happen, if you give it enough time.

Within two month.

Could this mean we can expect an preemptive strike on Iran from Israel and/or USA somewhere in September month ?

Another thing. From all I have read and heard it's no doubt that Israel and/or USA will attack Iran and its nuclear facilities.

Where I'm uncertain is when. I say it's very likely before, but they could also attack when they have build and tested the first nuclear bomb.

Markus

I haven't been following for the last couple days, trying to catch up on the news.

I am going to make some guesses, the nuclear facility is heavy guarded and I am not sure if its hidden deep underground. So how to get to it? I think you might be right that they will try to strike when the test weapon is being transported to a test site.

Its pretty crazy and all the other things that have been focused upon will become inconsequential when a bunch of nuclear weapon grade material has been blown up.

I made some qualified guessed myself.

What I didn't take into consideration was what Iran would do in retaliation.

Markus

By whom?

Biden? :haha:

No Israel They have nukes and would not hesitate to use them-if Iran send an ICBM towards Israel.

Secondly-If Iran does send a ICBM with nukes against Israel which response will se see from USA ?

Markus

Or from the United Kingdom, Russia, France, China, India or Pakistan?

This scares me. That one of these countries retaliate and send some ICBM against Iran and then some other nuclear country attack this country and a few hours later we have a global exchange of nukes.

Markus

The reality of a nuclear armed world as far back as I can remember (and then some).

Been thinking. If Israel do strike preemptive it will be a silent strike.

Israel send special forces into Iran to take out the important component in Iran's nuclear program. The sub and the two destroyer/frigate has two task.

1. Send a message to Iran
2. If the special forces fail-The Sub is ordered to send tomahawk against preprogrammed targets.

Yes I do imagine a lot.

Markus

Yes good speculation :|\\

There has been a lot of crazy sabotage like things going on in Iran. I think a refinery blew up a couple of months ago, and more recently a power-plant in the north had some explosion. I think there was some destruction at a offshore oil pumping station as well, not sure.

https://static.timesofisrael.com/www...000_9B98EK.jpg

https://img.haarets.co.il/img/1.8969603/3251246733.PNG

There's a group in Iran who's fighting the regime-It could very well be them who have done it. Can't remember what the name of this group is.
I don't know if they have the skills and the knowhow to destroy nuclear facilities.

Israel do have both skills, knowhow and they will go after these important component used in their nuclear program.

Markus

UN watchdog: Iran defying nuclear deal with uranium enrichment

The International Atomic Energy Agency has said Iran is "seriously undermining" efforts to monitor the country's uranium enrichment program, as hopes of reviving the Iran nuclear deal recede.

https://www.dw.com/en/un-watchdog-ir...ent/a-59116976

There’s Jundallah in Iran, the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan and the Mujahedin Khalq Organization a.k.a. the Mujahideen-e-Khalq which I think is trained in Albania.

Defying a deal that was no longer a deal? :shucks:

Only a matter of time until they achieve what they have set out to do.