SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - Catastrophic flooding in Germany and Belgium

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird (Post 2758666)

Neal, the information that it would become that worse as was the case, did not make the round, it was passed to the top of the administrative level - and from there it was not passed down. People in certain regions knew that this dam and that thing of local anti-flood infrastructure was found to be in bad shape last autumn - and the administrators on regional and state level failed to repair it (debts, debts, debts are ruling everywhere), did nothing, ignored it and hoped for the best. The weather forecast mentioned heavy rain, yes - but nothing that was of the likes that it puts you on instant alarm to evacuate. The next morning, i was surpised. Catfish posted in the Germany thread he was surprised by the scale of things, too. Everybody was surprised.

You can only react in time if you have a chance to directly anticipate that the hammer is falling down at your location.

Whats more, over here weather apps and forecasts are CONSTANTlY nanny-warning of the sky falling. If a drop of rain may ruin the sunshine, you already get - for reasons of insurrance laws, I assume - a warning declaring it a possible severe "Unwetter". The mildest of bad weathers already becomes a threat to life and community. Its that bad that i have deactivated all such alarms in my weather app, because 99 out of a 100 times they are overblown and completely pointless.

I tell you what is more likely to have happened. The warning by that international flood-monitoring centre was handed to the German top leaderships levels. And nobody dared to ring the alarm bell, because that costs time, effort, money, work, it causes a whole rat tail of consequences, and it was more comfortable to just assume that after the many false weather alarms by the weather frogs this was just another one of that. The outlook to just ignore it and laugh about it the next day is tempting, and so it was done: one did nothing. No costs. No overwork hours. Nobody needing to accept liability for have pushed the red button.

And so...

These heavy rains happen extremely fast, and quickly. In Münster we have had in 2014 an event that drowned two thirds of the city: within less than 2 hours more than 280 l of rain fell down. And the water came not from a flood wave, but heavy rain, and these events, the rain component in it, are extremely difficult to pinpoint and predict. The flood warning they now talk of comes from expected high water levels in a general heavy weatherzone, say a federal state or two, and the water then making its way along the topographic characteristics of the landscape - that you can forsee days ahead, yes. But not extreme heavy rains like these, they form within minutes, may be over after one or two hours, and cover an area maybe just 3x5 km, or even smaller. And that is sufficient already to spread desaster beyond that zone. I live in the Northeast of the city, my parents in the southwest, in straight line around 7.5 km away. While Münster in the centre and my part of town was almost drowning, in their part of thew city it stayed almost dry, and they had mild rainfalls only!

These kind of rains are a very different phenomenon than a Hurricane. I mean how they are being caused. You can know when a Hurricane is coming. With European heavy rains , which have intensified by a factor of 5 or so over the past decade, this is not possible. You may know there is a general threat across the centre or the West of Europe, but where the hammer falls precisely is almost impossible to predict more than an hour or two ahead. And if then the sirens do not work, and it is in the middle of the night and people are in bed...

In some villages, police and fire brigades drove around in the streets and alarmed the population via microphgone cars. Prewarning time this way before the flood wave arrives: 5-10 minutes.

So, I must defend the ordinary people here, they could not have known in advance that thigns would ebcome that bad, and move out. The failure lies higher up in the hierarchy.

Terrible it is for those who have already had ruined businesses or difficult businesses due to two or three Corona lockdowns. There are not few who simply do not have any reserve and credits left to restart once again, with now EVERYTHING being in ruins.Or the ver yold ones, those who are too old to rebuild financial reserves once again. Then those who have lost businesses who had been in hands of their fmailies since they cna rememeber, and where the yhave grown up in sinc ehcildhood on. Others who have lost the qhole image of the alndsacapoe they hapepned to have grown up in. Its a lie that evertyhign will be rebuild. some things and local regions and villages there are that cannot be rebuild, that simple.

I know, I know. I'm telling you, I live in an area like that. These kind of weather condition are usually forecast days before they occur. Sometimes the meteorologists don't get it precisely right but in general, they give ample warning. Yes, we can see when a hurricane forms, how it strengthens, and where it is likely to go. They can also detect fronts, depressions, and rainfall amounts. Do you have any records of the forecast in the days leading up to these rains? I mean, if one went to bed after the weatherman said "all sunny in the region tomorrow" and woke up to a flood, yeah, I guess that would be a problem. But that's not what happened.

Quote:

The first precise warning that Germany was about to be hit by a violent storm likely to unleash a potentially deadly flood reached the country’s Meteorological Service in the early hours of July 12, nearly three days before disaster struck.

It was Monday morning, and this government agency’s supercomputer, a machine the size of a hockey rink, had just generated a model forecast predicting with over 90% certainty and a precision down to 2 square kilometers that a string of West German communities would likely be befallen by severe flooding by late Wednesday.

The alarming forecast, which soon proved to be accurate, was picked up by the agency’s on-duty meteorologist who promptly triggered the country’s sophisticated flood alert system at 6 a.m., notifying at once the government, the emergency services, the police and key media about the looming catastrophe.

Some local authorities heeded the warning and alerted their populations, potentially saving lives, but many others failed to do so before the flash floods hit Germany last Wednesday, killing over 160 and seriously injuring nearly 1000 people. Officials say those numbers could increase as rescuers keep combing through destroyed homes.

In those places, an overreliance on digital tools such as warning apps meant to replace old-school sirens and public service announcements, the reluctance to order evacuations, and simply incredulity about the imminence of such a disaster were among the factors that stood in the way of a pre-emptive response, experts and officials said.

Some experts said that the situation resembled that of the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, when some governments were late to take adequate action to ward off a calamity no one had ever witnessed before.

The warning was then broadcast on public service television, with newscasters announcing that some of the areas that later became flooded would see 200 liters of rain per square meter—an exceedingly rare amount that was certain to cause severe flooding.

Armin Schuster, head of the Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, said that Germany had a uniquely good alert system that worked impeccably. Over 150 alerts were issued in the run-up to the flood, 16 of them indicating lethal danger, he said.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany...gs-11626694101

Again, let me remind you, I have been in this situation for all my life. I don't need anyone to tell me I live in an area that floods, or might see a hurricane. People are aware they are living in an area that has hazards. :-?

Every time there's a disaster, people want to blame it on the govt. People who live in nice river-front homes, in low areas, or on the beach know they are at more risk. They need to take responsibility for their own lives.