Yea, he could run this and the next term and then switch. If Medvedev is not availiable for whatever reasons then another candidate may be elected. That said - Russia needs reforms now and political will to conduct those. In theory Putin can try to pull another 2007-present day mil reform type thing, but this time with economics.

In theory Putin could be there for a long time, but there are very few president/dictator/politician who manage to stay in power until death, just look how many dictators have been pushed out just in the past 5 years.

Putin built his domestic popularity in part on rising income for the middle class and some good foreign policy moves. Now Russia is in the midst of a economic depression, falling oil prices, economic sanctions and potential quagmires in Ukraine and Syria.

If Putin does not resolve at least some of these issues by 2018, he could be in trouble. Russians will accept some amount of electoral fraud, but assume he only polls 20% and has to resort to massive fraud to stay in power. Will Russians just accept it or will they stage massive demonstrations like in Ukraine? Will the Army just stand by if Putin has to shoot hundreds of protesters to stay in power?

His position is not as secure as it seems.

As one person put it many years ago..."Live by the sword, die by the sword".

Meaning if you use violence, or other harsh means, against other people, you can expect to have those same means used against you; "You can expect to become a victim of whatever means you use to get what you want."

If he polls that badly he won't go into elections. Putin (and others on the top of Russian political leadership) are genuine patriots and wish the best for the country. The reason why Putin's policy is bold is because his popularity ratings are high.

Plus we would need to see a sensible alternative for Putin for him to loose in 2018. And who that may be (other than the well known faces of current elites)?

I think a fair bit also depends on how the siloviki view Putins progress, I mean in terms of world power Putin has brought Russia back into the forefront and kept it there, people view Russia with more respect now than they did back in the early 2000s when it was the laughing stock of much of the world.
Unfortunately he did it by riding on the back of the dollar value of oil which has subsided a fair bit, however it's a fairly sure bet that this is only a temporary lull in value and that it will go back up again, especially if Saudi Arabia loses the war. Whatever replaces the Saud government might not be particularly friendly to western interests, in fact it's very likely not to be since it will view the west as propping up the corrupt Sauds. Obamas move to try and ease relations with Iran and back off a bit from Saudi Arabia might help a bit there, but there's a lot of history between the US and Saudi Arabia so that's not something that can be just swept under the rug.
I think Putin isn't in any major danger of losing his position yet, he's got himself into a good spot, his main opponents have either mysteriously died or have gone quiet, so he's relatively stable.
Of course, like the old days, you never see the knife that gets you, because it usually comes from behind and into your back. Putin is KGB (You can't say ex-KGB because it's like the Marines, once you're one, you're always one) so he knows to watch his back, he wouldn't have made it this far in Russian politics if he didn't.
Come to think of it, if Putin does run again in the next presidentials then he'll have run Russia longer than any leader since the end of the Tsars. :doh:

http://abload.de/img/politicsp6s92.jpg

You can simply tell the people the truth or you can deceitfully fool the people.

For propaganda you're especially predisposed after internalizing you are not exposed to it.

If you ignore Chernenko and Andropov, both of whom had very short terms, the only Russian leader who died in office since Stalin was Brezhnev.

Krushchev, Gorbachev and Yeltsin were all forced from office, not a very good track record.

As to who could replace him, behind every Mubarak, there is a Sisi. :ping:

The Chinese have a better system, by replacing the "Great Leader" every 10 years or so, you keep the ambitious players in line waiting their turn.

The problem with a one man show is that very ambitious pols know they have to push the leader out of the way to move forward.

Actually back in the 2007 (and somewhat earlier) it was obvious that oil rent income model was not sustainable. Even before that we have limited the effects oil income had on the budget with via the budget rule and limits on transfers of revenues to budget and so on.
Then the crisis happened and reforms were pushed back onto the shelf. In 2014 it became obvious that reforms are needed, because reserves would run out at some point in the future and the budget has to be balanced. This was reflected (for example) in the most recent adress to the Federal Councill on the 4th (or was it 3rd?).

Competition wise - Putin just lacks it. And it didn't dissapear, it has never existed in the first place (after the initial transitionary period that is). You are welcome to provide examples of such people if you know any. So it is a choice between the old faces - Putin or Medvedev or someone they suggest.
Note that Putin is de facto above both of the main factions in the government, both the security services types already mentioned here and the financists.

Most of the oligarchs were Putins main rivals in the early days, and well, more than a couple of them have had unfortunate accidents. Journalists and human rights critics have also had unfortunate accidents as well.
Then, of course there's Liberal Russia, whose leader started it up one day and was murdered the next. Then, of course there's Nemtsov, although to be fair his death could equally have been done to put Putin in a bad light, since it was pretty damn obvious.
Then there's journalists, like Elena Kostyuchenko, who haven't exactly been well treated by the custodial services of Russia.

Let's face it, if Putin sees you as a threat, you suddenly become arrested for financial improperity, or you die. Putin isn't stupid, and he's doing no less than hundreds of leaders before him and after him have done. Even the western democracies have no doubt made people disappear, it's what political leaders do. Anyone who plays that game knows it, the best thing to do is make yourself too big to go quietly.

Interestingly enough you do not mention any credible, non marginal politicians. Liberals by 2000 (ie after 90s) and certainly by 2014 were not in that category. Unless you count in the battle with old guard oligarhs in the early years of the regime (which I have specifically cut out due to how those oligarhs have operated in the 90s) all you describe are journalists/activists being murdered (sadly this is reality - there is a degree of corruption going around and sometimes journalists die and that happens without Putin's intervention).

Interesting claim. Define "dangerous". Were the journalists that you have described dangerous to Putin (or his regime) rather than some people well below him in the order of things?

The Russians need to elect Mikhail Prokhorov as president. The Russians need a President they can look up to.

Only after USA elects Trump :P

This is just speculation, but President Putin may have been radicalized. :o

Not by the Muslims, but by the Russian orthodox church ... Here's a very good article recent too: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=5e7_1449487676
I don't have a link, but several years ago I was like in a dentist office or something and picked up a copy of the New Yorker and was shocked to read that the Kremlin has a chapel just down from the President Putins office and that he has been seen going into it many times.

All of this points to a serious problem. What if President Putin thinks that he is Gods right hand man to solve the worlds population problems? :hmm2:

You'd feel better if he decided to solve that problem for secular reasons?

You're funny.:har:

It depends on what they were sniffing at, truth be told it might well not be Putin but those who run him that have ordered their silence.
The west is certainly not completely innocent of such matters, I recall an interesting case in the UK involving an unfortunate gentleman by the name of Dr David Kelly who committed suicide in 2003, likewise the curious incident of Gareth Williams, although that could have been a foreign intel agency who pulled that one off.
Honestly I respect Putin and his rather masterfully created image, and I can also respect him for bringing the oligarchs to heal after their attempts to run the country, although to be fair to them, considering that Yeltsin was President at that time, they were probably doing more work than he was. Putin cut through the corruption and brought Russia back as a power to be respected and feared on the world stage, I can respect that and I can see how to the average Russian that would make him a popular figure.

But there's other things that un-nerve me about Putins Russia, the laws regarding Homosexuality, for one thing, the corruption in the police force that is so often ignored or even encouraged in some areas by local officials, the way that freedom of speech can sometimes lead to a bad end...although, to be fair in that respect a similar thing can happen in the west, especially if you're the wrong ethnicity or religion.
It's those little things, that probably don't even effect the average Russian citizen in their daily lives, and as such would not cause them any real concern or reason to doubt Putins directions, but when you step back and look at the bigger picture, it's not a direction I like seeing Russia take.
I realise that Russia is not the west, and it takes a very particular type of government to run Russia in any organised form, in that respect I can understand Putin running for so long, he is doing no different to what his predecessors did, all the way back to the Tsars and beyond, but to try and call it a democracy is a bit like calling a wolf wearing sheeps fur a sheep. The Chinese communist government is probably more democratic in that manner, but I guess if Putin was to crown himself Tsar it would probably end with another mess in St. Petersburg and I'm really not so sure if the cannons on the Aurora still work... :hmmm:

Well, since Aurora is being refit at Cronstadt probably they'll look after her cannons as well. Last time I've seen her - they were in quite a good shape - glistening as your mirror. Of course these aren't the ones that were equipped in 1917 - those original ones were lost being taken ashore to serve as ground batteries during Defence of Leningrad.
As for mess in St.Petersburg - if it will be only there I woudn't care - they call us in Moscow a big village ;-)

One word: yes. Journalists and the media are much more dangerous for any dictator, statesman or president, than a mere rival. You can discredit a rival or competitor before killing (like spreading word he's a homosexual, a pedophile, or a traitor), so no one will shed a tear, maybe even with the media's help; but media gone wild against you as a leader is a multi-headed beast and not that easy to kill.

From Anna Politovskaya to Pussy riot, anyone who openly or hidden, seriously or making fun dared to criticize, has been forbidden or is dead. Maybe it's not even Putin himself everytime, but you know this obedience hurrying ahead with all those subordinate thugs thinking their boss expects it is a very common occurrence, especially with "one-man-governments" (to put it more pleasantly). Whether it was (or is) chekists, FSE or KGB, or the russian Mafia – who cares.

We have also seen this with South America and the US secret services involved, of course. Usually those presidents who were not on the right side (in all possible contexts) had inexplainable plane accidents, back then. It was not always as obvious as with Allende.
:D

The russian political climate in which all this takes place ... the once-promising reluctant start of a civilian society in Russia, has come to a grinding halt. And yes, we can also blame the West for that. NATO-eastward expansion, violating treaties, the same western attitude towards Russia since 1989 like during the cold war.. all not very nice.

well, its easy to blame the West for whatever Russia does, but it's the former East Bloc/Baltic States themselves that campaigned to join NATO and the EU. Considering what Russia is doing now in Ukraine, I'm sure the Baltic states are very glad to be NATO members.

Yeah right, and NATO hesitated and cared so much about how Russia would think about all surrounding states joining the NATO.
What Russia is doing in the Ukraine (not that the West did anything there? lmao) is a direct consequence. It would have never happened with someone like Gorbatschow or Yeltsin at the helm, who asked for becoming a NATO member back then, but were brusquely refused.

Regarding the former eastern block i could maybe understand Finnland, but when i see what happens in Poland politically, and how nationalistic the new government is, i am more frightened of them, than of Russia.