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-   -   Malaysian Airlines MH317 (https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=214617)

aergistal 07-17-14 04:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird (Post 2225726)
Most likely shot-down, most likely by separatists, most likely via BUK launchers conquered from Ukrainian forces

Sad news... Isn't the SA-11 equipped with an IFF interrogator however? What were they thinking.

Jimbuna 07-17-14 04:21 PM

Anyone know definitively yet what really ocurred?

Wolferz 07-17-14 04:53 PM

Malaysia Airlines might want to take a closer look at their pilots. Seems to me that they have a few too many nuts flying their aircraft.:hmmm:

Skybird 07-17-14 04:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mapuc (Post 2225733)
@ Skybird

"conquered from Ukrainian forces"

This was new to me

I have so far heard that they got this SAM-system from the Russian

Markus

The rebels have claimed they conquered "sophisticated SAM systems" during attacks of theirs earlier. Wikipedia says Russia has around 250 such systems, the Ukraine around 60.

On the IFF interrogator, there are half a dozen different technical systems of the SA-11, with developments from the early 60s to the mid-90s. Possible that some versions have that tech equipment, others not - I do not know.

Also, if it was fired from a system formerly owned by Ukraine, maybe the switched off IFF deliberately in order to not get locked out when targetting Ukrainian planes.

Another idea I have oin mind as well: the shot-down has been deliberately done by Ukrainian forces - so that pressure can be mounted against Russia and the separatists and turning global opinion agaiunst them. It would be the same tactics like Hamas currently uses once again in Gaza when tryin g to increase the number of killed Palestinian Arabs in Gaza. Saakashvili did the same in Georgia, ordering his missile artillery to bombard civilian appartment buildings at night, with sleeping civilians inside, and then accusing the Russians of having committed the warcrime and again demanding NATO to militarily intervene against Russia. So you think that scenario of the Ukrainians shooting down a plane with foreigners is unlikely? For politicians, nothing is unlikely, and similiar stuff already has happened before in the Ukraine, on the Maidan, with the snipers. Kiew-loyal snipers opened fire there, causing many deaths in short time. Later, separatists, even Russian special commandos were accused, with the hints and known radio com protocols speaking against that. - I don't say the plane got shot down this way - I only remind of that it is war, and war is the biggest party of all - anything goes.

mapuc 07-17-14 05:08 PM

@ Skybird, thank you for your answer.

Some hours ago I was in a discussion with a Danish local politician

He want the airforce from NATO to conduct some SEAD-operation in that area

I have asked him and others if they have any idea of what kind of consequences this could lead to.

I'm a pacifist so any military solution is not a good solution. Or it has to be the very last thing we do.

Should we let they who did this go free?

Of course not. We should track them and prosecute them

Markus

Skybird 07-17-14 05:19 PM

NATO has no business there. Nor do I want it to send any horse into that race. The last thing we need is Russian and NATO soldiers starting to exchange fire. The Ukraine is no NATO territory or member, and I hope it never becomes that, and NATO is no global fire brigade, I am already pissed by the way it entangled itself in Afghanistan, Libya. And now a NATO air war right on the Russian border? Much speaks for the Russian forces already being engaged in the Ukraine, militarily. So think twice before sending NATO forces into their action zone. You are talking war with Russia here.

Tell your Danish politicians he is an idiot if he wants a military intervention by NATO in that environment. Sorry for being rude, but nothing better he deserves. He's an idiot.

NATO is for defending NATO members within the treaty territory's borders. That, and nothing more. Not Afghanistan. Not the Western Pacific. Not North Africa. Not the Eastern Ukraine.

mapuc 07-17-14 05:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird (Post 2225779)
NATO has no business there. Nor do I want it to send any horse into that race. The last thing we need is Russian and NATO soldiers starting to exchange fire. The Ukraine is no NATO territory or member, and I hope it never becomes that, and NATO is no global fire brigade, I am already pissed by the way it entangled itself in Afghanistan, Libya. And now a NATO air war right on the Russian border? Much speaks for the Russian forces already being engaged in the Ukraine, militarily. So think twice before sending NATO forces into their action zone. You are talking war with Russia here.

Tell your Danish politicians he is an idiot if he wants a military intervention by NATO in that environment. Sorry for being rude, but nothing better he deserves. He's an idiot.

NATO is for defending NATO members within the treaty territory's borders. That, and nothing more. Not Afghanistan. Not the Western Pacific. Not North Africa. Not the Eastern Ukraine.

First of all, I'm not going to tell my FB-friend he is an.... I guess he was filled with angry feeling, like many of us had when we got the news

I totally agree NATO has absolutely nothing to do in that area. However I have this feeling in my stomach that we are heading that way.

Markus

Stealhead 07-17-14 08:31 PM

I would not discount the possiabilty that the Ukrainians did this on accident. Such a mistake has been made in the past by Ukrainian air defence during a time of peace. I honestly feel if this was thier mistake they would not be willing to admit it.

The Russians would also want to avoid blame if it was due. At any rate I am sure it was a mistake. I consider both sides claims as questionable.

Seems like most media is quick to blame Russia but with what solid evidance?

Betonov 07-18-14 01:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stealhead (Post 2225821)

Seems like most media is quick to blame Russia but with what solid evidance?

Our media is also fond of blaming the Russians. In a country with a pro-russian attitude. The comments sections are about to explode

kranz 07-18-14 02:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stealhead (Post 2225821)
I would not discount the possiabilty that the Ukrainians did this on accident.

I wouldn't discount it either. After all, they have recently shot down their own Su-25 (thinking it was a pro-russian separatist fighter) and An-26 (thinking it was a pro-russian separatist transport plane.).

Oh wait...

CCIP 07-18-14 02:49 AM

So far, I think it's important to look at points on which all sides agree.

So, first of all, it seems everyone - Russia, Ukraine, rebels and Western observers - agree that this was an SA-11 launcher. There seems to be very little if any disagreement about this.

As of the past hour, both the Donetsk rebels and Ukraine have indicated that no Ukrainian SA-11s were captured by the militants from any Ukrainian bases, and certainly none that would be operable. If those two sides agree, pretty likely that it's true.

The shootdown location rules out that it was shot down from Russian territory - the wreck lies outside of the SA-11's maximum engagement zone. Same is almost certainly true of Ukrainian government-controlled territory.

There is universal agreement that aircraft were fired on in the area - including a Su-25 and An-26 that were shot down over the region over the past two days. The An-26 was reportedly hit at 25,000 feet. Rebels claimed those kills and the losses were confirmed by Ukraine.

So, thus far, signs point to a Russian-provided SAM operated on behalf of the rebels as the most likely version.

Herr-Berbunch 07-18-14 04:34 AM

Having a SAM with IFF fitted is only going to interrogate military aircraft with IFF fitted. It's not yet standard procedure or common practice to fit IFF on civvy aircraft, but I bet it gets suggested soon.

Skybird 07-18-14 05:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CCIP (Post 2225868)

As of the past hour, both the Donetsk rebels and Ukraine have indicated that no Ukrainian SA-11s were captured by the militants from any Ukrainian bases, and certainly none that would be operable. If those two sides agree, pretty likely that it's true.

Wrong. The rebels HAVE claimed they captured a Buk M2 system during an attack on June 29th. They NOW claim that they have not, which should surprise nobody, if they were the shooters. Like initially the boasted with having shot down a "military transport" (the Malaysian airliner) - and later deleted all video and statements.

Anton Geraschenko, advisor in the Ukrainian interior ministry, confirmed yesterday to German media that Kiev knows from sources behind the rebels' lines that the rebels have captured a Buk system for sure. This could however be a propaganda claim, due to the source (Kiev). But almolt everything being said these days could be propaganda.

The Ukrainian forces have accidentally shot down a civilian passenger plane by mistake during a military exercise in 2001.

The question not touched so far is who operated the SA-11 system, which is a complex arrangement that noobs and newbies cannot learn to handle well within short time and without instructors. If it was a launcher captured by rebels - if - , then it could only be handled by veterans in in the rebel's lines who have a history of having served in the Ukrainian/forces (not unlikely at all) and who operated SA-11s already back then and so know the system. Or training was provided by Russian instructors, but has not yet been too successful due to lacking time.

The SA11 is mobile. The argument that the shooting location is outside Ukrainian operational areas, suffers from that. They could very well have tried to bring forces ionto the rebels rear, between them and the Russian border - to supress Russian supply crossing the border. Anti-air equipment necessarily would then be part of such a move, to be able to suppress Russian border crossings by air and possible Russian air attacks on Ukrainian forces as well.

To me that is not unlikely. If I were the military commanders in Kiev, I WOULD for sure try to entangle the rebels and especially isolate them from their supply lines over the border.

Edit:
It was claimed that the said-to-be-captured SA-11 was of the M2-type, which is the most modern of the series, produced since 1998, with a maximum range of 50 km (older versions reach just 30 km) and a maximum intercept altitude of 25 km.

The Ukraine operates the SA-11, SA-13, SA-6, SA-4 and the S-300.

Oberon 07-18-14 06:07 AM

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/738262

ExFishermanBob 07-18-14 10:16 AM

Might I gently remind one and all that there was increased security last week regarding possible phone-based / electronic equipment-based bombs. Secondly is this not the second Malaysian aircraft to go down in recent months? It could perhaps be a focussed attack upon the Malaysian carrier rather than a missile strike.

Admiral Halsey 07-18-14 10:25 AM

I gotta admit i'm worried about how the US state department seems to be blaming the Russians even though its only been about 24 hours since the crash. This is one of those disaster that until we know all the facts you don't go blaming people in what was an already volatile situation.

Dread Knot 07-18-14 11:00 AM

Well, it's been a bonanza for the conspiracy theorists so far. So far I've seen--

Obama did it to distract from the border crisis.
Retaliation for Dutch support for the Ukraine.
Israel did it to distract from their ground operation in the Gaza Strip...had a duplicate of the plane made up and everything.
Big Pharma did it because the AIDS researchers onboard were about to reveal HIV is made up.
Re-entry of the missing MAL flight.

And of course the old stand by...

http://www.sortius-is-a-geek.com/wp-...iens-thumb.jpg

Now, if only this could be connected to 9/11 or the Kennedy assassination.

Schöneboom 07-18-14 04:19 PM

Indeed, the rumour mill's going flat-out at the moment. Some of you may have heard about the "Spanish air traffic controller in Kiev" who claimed two Ukrainian fighters were escorting MH17 over the Donetsk area, implying they actually shot it down. (Or provoked the shootdown by the rebels, would be my take on it.)

So far, given how little can be confirmed, Skybird's first scenario looks the most likely. As a general rule, when choosing between incompetence and a sophisticated conspiracy, go with incompetence.

I've read that for the passengers, at least it was over almost instantly, i.e., they weren't screaming all the way down if the fuselage was pierced at 10km altitude.

TarJak 07-18-14 04:33 PM

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-0...nquiry/5608814

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-0...border/5608744

Some interesting legal questions will need to be answered on this:http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-0...al-law/5607108

Betonov 07-18-14 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Admiral Halsey (Post 2225970)
I gotta admit i'm worried about how the US state department seems to be blaming the Russians even though its only been about 24 hours since the crash. This is one of those disaster that until we know all the facts you don't go blaming people in what was an already volatile situation.

Don't want to downplay the human cost of the tragedy, but:

Our government is more than willing to eat anything the US state departments serves them and in the middle of negotiations with Russia for a multi billion euro project with hundreds of jobs, this might not go well for us.


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