Well according to some political theories (which I happen to believe in) in order for Obama to be defeated in the next election two distinct and different circumstances must occur:

1. The voting public must be sufficiently dissatisfied with Obama

and

2. The voting public must be presented with an alternative candidate that offers a significant difference.

Without both of these occurring, the incumbent stands a very good chance of being re-elected.

Consider the 2004 elections. Bush's approval rating was very low and his disapproval rating was high. This satisfied the first requirement.

However, the Democrats, in the form of Kerry, failed to demonstrate that Kerry would be a significant change (improvement). Kerry ran on mostly an "I am not Bush" platform.

Not being the incumbent is rarely enough for the voting public to choose to nor re-elect the incumbent. The result: Bush was re-elected

Fast forward to 2012

Obama's approval rating may be low and his disapproval rating may be high by the time of the elections.

But is the Republican party able to field a candidate that offers the voting public a significant improvement? That is the question that will govern this election. If the Republicans fall into the same trap as the Democrats did in 2004 and run a 2012 candidate on the "I am not Obama" platform, Obama may have a good chance of being re-elected.

Personally, as a Recovering Republican and an Extreme Moderate Independent, I have not seen the GOP satisfy the second part of the theory.....yet.

It is still early and we are still stuck with the seven dwarfs fighting among themselves, but soon the GOP will have to decide on who they want to represent their party in the next election and start building a platform that consists of more than "I am not Obama".

And by soon, I think by the time of the next election which is on Tuesday. :yep:. Republican primaries start in Jan 2012. Not a lot of time!

I will be waiting and watching as I am sure the rest of us will be.

I think the name you are looking for is: "The Bill of Rights".






:O:

I totally agree with your second premise.

But instead of giving an example, could you define sufficiently dissatisfied.

Not to rip it apart but my definition may be a bit different.

We have a lot of non-Americans that vote, so please...join the crowd.

Consider a sitting President is not normally voted out office during war. :hmmm:

If I could define that accurately and predictably, I would not be working at the company I am now in. LoL

Sufficiently dissatisfied is the tricky thing.:yep:

Well who ever wins better start sorting out the Frederal deficit before it breaks America.... and drags the rest of us down with you.
Bush Jr carried out quite a shopping spree and mostly on a chinese tab too. Obama so far has done next to nothing to help the situation!

No, it's in the social benefits and hospital.

But thanks anyway.

Markus

Here's a question to you.

Would you like to be the next president for the US??

If you do nothing to the debt and other things-people gonna hate you

If you do something about it and I presume it's some tuff decision you have to make-people gonna hate you.

I would not.

Offcourse the president do not have to do all the job.

Markus

Kind of like "reasonable suspicion." :har:

I see the angle you are working and your argument is plausible, more plausible than I have heard by some of the pundits.

The strange part of all of this: as Romney has kept silent this past week, his poll numbers increased. :hmmm:

Valid points.

I for one would just be happy for a true leader.

Would anyone want to be President with the current state of Congress???

I think the current political attitudes will do more harm than anything else to our country. It seems like we have a bunch of children in congress, none of them seems to care about taking care of the country but seem only to be interested in party before country.

Barring a major recovery of the economy(LOL right) or GOP running a flip flopping guy like Romney, Obama is definitely out.

Congres is mostly ok, they just are not willing to give into obama's crappy plans. Look at where a cooperative congress lead by Reid and Pelosi got us.Blame lies with Obama and his failed policies as well as refusing to accept his left wing views have been proven incorrect.

Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake. Perry and Cain are destroying themselves, and Romney's just sitting back and letting it happen.

The case for Obama.

http://pyxis.homestead.com/obamacase.jpg

Absolutely. Can you explain why Biden still has career without invoking the name of McConnell???? Your answer should read in form of a question, and should be within 1800 words or less. Thank you please drive up to the first window.;)

Well not necessarily strange. Right now there seems to be a battle going on over Cain's credibility due to these harassment allegations. It drives some people to him some people away from him. It may be encouraging some voters to go over to Romney instead. What's more interesting though is that, last I checked, Cain's poll numbers have actually increased in the past week as well.

Just wondering who leaked the story....Cain #'s up may be an anomaly, though I hate to use that as an excuse for anything. Voting public see this as a charade? Not sure I give them that much credit. White guilt part II? My head hurts....:-?

Well the wingnut presenters said it was the worldwide liberal media conspiracy who want to keep the blackman down.
Cains camp have blamed so far the Republican party, his old employers, two of his current republican opponents, his old politcal campaigh staff, his business associates, the democrats, Rahm Emanuel, Obama.....I think they are blaming the grassy knoll next to then be followed by the bell boy.

The damage being done to Cain is not by the allegations themselves but by his ever changing excuses about them.
But look on the bright side for him, there must be another book in all this