:sign_yeah: We "talk the talk" but can we " Walk the Walk"?
:nope:

I feared you would write no.

It's a dilemma for me.

Do not make promises, if you can't fulfill them. On the other hand-I'm not interested as a single human being watch how the world once again start a world war.

Following is a thinkable scenario.

Russia invade Ukraine and despite Bidens word of standing side by side with Ukraine. Ukraine gets no help from NATO/USA, only verbal support.

Could this give China blood on the teeth and attack Taiwan or some other country attack another country-Like Iran + Syria attack Israel ?

Markus

Syria is not in the shape to atack Israel, has other things on mind.

Iran already attacks Israel via proxies, and gets attacked via sabotage and cyber attacks.

China does not need any encouraging example to do like it wants to do, it just does them when it sees fit.

Take this form of a famous one as a source of serenity:

Courage - to change the things I can alter,
Serenity - to accept those things I cannot help,
Wisdom - to know the difference.

This, and a big dose of Stoizism. I like to read Marc Aurel's Reflections.

I just fail in always living up to all that... :)

Russia did ok during ww2 they was pretty much fighting a one front war where everyone else was a two front but the fly in the buttermilk is Nato/Europe US would have to have the balls tell russia what would happen we know Nato and Europe don't have the balls for that not anymore and biden it would take him 2 months to figure out where his balls are north korea even if they jump in south korea could tear them up and spit them out middle east US could take the leash off of Israel and turn them lose and let them go for broke china don't care for russia dont think they would jump in but let the smoke settle like i said it take balls balls that a lot of people now days don't have

North Koprea has stationed over 15000 asrtillery pieces at the demarkation line, most of them in striking distance to the bigger area around Seoul with 25+ million inhabitants. Missiles not counted.

Aerial bombardmeent in Yugosloavia was so ineffective due to clever camouflyging by the Serbs that their losses in attacked targets, mostly tanks and artillery, were practically insignificant and the attacked manouver units were able to finally withdraw and pull out practically unharmed, in full cohesion and fully combat capable. The experiences of the NATO air war against active combat units on the ground must be described as extremely sobering.

I do not know where this often seen attitude comes from that America can just defeat any enemy with ease and certainty. The Iraq and Afghanistan and Yugoslavia wars also do not support that optimism. And that were enemies seen as more inferior than North Korea. It still features one of the world's most dangerous and amassed air defence zones.

North Korea is absolutely capable to inflict hair-raising damages and losses to South Korea. They probbaly cannot maintian such an effort for long time, logistically, but a first decisive attack may be enough to break the South's economic backbone and destroy public morale due to unimaginable civilian losses.

An d when you compare Seoul with Pyönyang - what is the rational in assumig that threatening to wipe out Pyönyang in retaliation for striking Seoul has a deterring effect? I would say it is exactly the other way around, Seoul is much more preciosu and juicy a target than Pyönyang. The south has, due to its greater modernity and wealth, much more to lose than the North. And its a relatively open society, compared to the North. Which makes it vulnerable to sabotage, a Northern speciality.

I often have heard a war would most likely be lost by the North. I then usually think that does not mean that the costs for the South are affordable.

China's acting I do no longer predict. They may intervene against the North, to stop them. They may not do so. They may engage actively on behalf of the North. All possible. They will do what maximises the damage for the US and the South, strategically. Or use the opporutnity to open a second front over Taiwan and/or the SCS.

On such things, I have a very simplistic view: either you do it full and then go all the way, or you do not even start. Shatter the enemy and kill and destroy him with all you have, and if you cannot do that, then do not even bother to get engaged.

Skybird , The U.S. since 1945 Japan...we have never shattered an enemy on our own even when we had help.Every single conflict our politicians have sent our volunteer soldiers to we have had our ass kicked. And those allies that believed in us.They have had to build monuments to their fallen soldiers to. Today in this country, We do not know if our President has command of our nuclear forces or the party he represents has control.We do not Know!! I do know that in the past the United States has attacked countries who had Weapons of mass Destruction if they had unstable Governments.

As a citizen of the USA, Will other countries think of Americans as these peoples are losing their minds and they have Nuclear Weapons and just as we have done to other countries in the past and make a coordinated attack on the USA ? Sorry i do not know how to edit and post .

Anyone hear of somebody fleeing to Russia, North Korea, Syria or China? We're not the bad guys here. People flee other countries all the time, risking their lives to come to North America and Europe. When the Soviet Union folded and before Russia could get back on its feet. The Baltic States and other Eastern Bloc countries took advantage of the confusion and ran fast and worked as hard as they possibly could to become integrated into NATO. Ukraine wasn't even close then but have since overcome a lot of obstacles to be considered for NATO membership. Its their right to do so if choose too just as they have the right to preserve well established boundaries and the resources within without interference.


Russia has only one BFF in Europe and that's because they and their former East German buddies are working hard to undermine NATO alliances and Ukraine energy sources by diverting much needed energy through Nordstream2. While Russia secures the coal reserves in the Donbas for themselves.

Ok so what the hell does that have to do with America ? Look we are are in our own Reset and we certainly don't need to get in another Political war for anybody. We may be targeted by other countries because our political situation is unstable what have we done in those cases . Attack ,yes what goes around comes around. Lol

:D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AszaaErOUaM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nnpN1V_ZXQ&t=10s

Side question, is our military even capable of fighting a major power? Seriously, we wouldn't be fighting a bunch of goat herders this time, what could go wrong?
Are we gunna draft snowflakes? Russia will just have to shut the internet off or change the wifi PW and we'll cry like lil babies. Can you see Cornpop announcing that we're re-instating the draft? :hmmm:

No my friend, the United States offres anyone that will join regardless of what the country your from, a future they lie about . And if we fight Russia we will get our ass kicked because our leaders sons and daughters can not lead us.

I take it that after the last four years of succesful desinformation and diversion of "the west" (easily to be followed in this very forum), Putin smells an easy victory.
Russia has been very strong in its propaganda efforts in the last years, launching a gigantic medial campaign on "social media" and its own state-controlled agencies.

The NATO manoeuver being held right now in the Ukraine "provoked" Russia? At least the russian "news agency" Sputnik sees it that way (snanews is Sputnik=propaganda)
Translation by Google:
“Defender Europe 2021”: How NATO wages war “against nobody” with Ukraine and Georgia

https://www.army.mil/article/244260/..._dozen_nations

In a response to one of my comment Skybird wrote

"China does not need any encouraging example to do like it wants to do, it just does them when it sees fit"

This may be the truth, however they(China)is calculating what kind response they may get if they attack Taiwan.

When they see USA is nothing more than a roaring toothless lion-they will not only engage Taiwan but do more in the south Chinese sea.

Back to original discussion-Ukraine once again.

Markus

Ukraine wants to speed up Nato membership
 

What and bring NATO a step closer to military conflict?

Might as well admit them into the EU as well....as a net receiver.

They already are, via the gas transit fees. Plus they have stolen and sometimes still steal from the transited gas volumes.

Its an incapable, corrupt criminal place run by oligarchs and criminal gangs. Only a fool wants a messy country like this into NATO or the EU. EU rules imply that a country has to do its homework FIRST and then can ask for membership (with the answer free to be either yes or no), it is not that membership is seen as a tool to make the homework for that country. We have already severla countries that were let in against the rules, and it did not go well so far. Plus the financial burden they are.

Of course many western politicians will completely ignore this, both in Brussels and Washington. Its just that the Russian will not comply. Want to see a huge flareup of the war between Ukraine and Russia, and a multiplication of military engagement by Russia? Move to get Ukraine into NATO, and there you are. Lets face it, Moscow will not accept NATO troops close to Sewastopol and the Krimean. They will react, and if needed with force. Would Washinton accept Russian or Chinese forces close to its main ports and major air bases in America? No. Not even further away in Canda or Mexico. American military action would be unavoidable.

Maybe this goes a bit beyond economics.

^ ... and deep into geopolitical and military key interests.

joining NATO would be a major propaganda coup for Ukraine since it would put NATO firmly on its side in the conflict, but for NATO, it would be a lose/lose proposition:

1. under art. 5, NATO has to help any member under attack. Does that mean that NATO would be in a state of war with Russia has soon as Ukraine joins? Can NATO be at war with Russia in Ukraine , but be at peace in the rest of the world? How do we keep this from spinning into World War 3?

2. Presumably, they could carve the present occupation from art. 5 obligations, but would that in effect mean that NATO is recognizing and legitimising the Russian occupation in Donbass/Crimea?

3. would NATO troops be on the frontline in the Donbass? What happens when NATO troops are killed or wounded, will NATO retaliate? How far will NATO go, will it launch an offensive to reconquer Donbas? How will Russia react? How do you keep this thing from spinning out into World War 3?

4. What if Ukraine joins, but NATO does nothing but offer moral support. This will show the alliance is a useless "paper tiger". How will say the Baltic States stand up to future Russian pressure knowing the art. 5 garantee is not absolute?

No matter how you game it out, Ukraine joining NATO in the current situation is a potential disaster.

If i follow what is read and spread, and what i read here i take it the Ukraine will soon be russian again, and all of it.