For those interested, here's SpaceX's plan (might need to add a 'couple' of years on each stage).
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2020 - Second Stage Reuse
So first up, they have chosen to tackle possibly the toughest challenge, i.e. recovery and reuse of their Starship upper stage. This has already begun with Starhopper test flights, which are designed to practise take-off and landing, at Boca Chica Beach Texas. All being well, they should progress to test flights with their orbital Starship prototype, again likely at their development facility in Boca Chica. By early next year, they intend to drive the Starship prototype hard through the atmosphere, reaching ever increasing velocities, to simulate orbital re-entry conditions and prove their new heatshield material. Again, all being well, they should progress to a full stack test launch by year’s end, enabling them to continue re-entry tests from full orbital velocities.
2021 - Orbital Refueling
Another big one: transfer of cryogenic propellant in micro-gravity. Originally, it seemed slightly extravagant of SpaceX to build two Starship prototypes in different locations but it seems that's the fastest way to perform orbital refuelling test flights. First the target Starship will launch to orbit, typically from the Cape, then a second Starship tanker will launch from Boca Chica to rendezvous with the target vehicle. If they relied solely on one launch site it could take months to refurbish the launch site and reusable booster, before being able to perform the follow-up tanker launch. Whereas using two sites, they could potentially launch both test vehicles the same day, trimming months off development time for the orbital refuelling test. In addition, this parallel launch strategy should greatly reduce any propellant boil-off, making it more likely to recover both vehicles, again saving the time needed to fabricate any replacements.
2021 - Surface habitats/In Situ Propellant Production
Hopefully by 2021 SpaceX will have completed their architectural design for pressurized domes, which couldn’t class as easy – but frankly doesn't approach rocket science. Likely too, Boring Company will have produced high speed boring equipment by this time, which SpaceX can adapt for use on Mars. These robot borers will be used to excavate frozen water from the ground, leaving tunnels which can be sealed for atmosphere and used as workshops and service areas. Reportedly SpaceX have been working on ISRU propellant production for some time, so should have it ready by this date - if not sooner. The chemical processes are not groundbreaking (fractional distillation, electrolysis, Sabatier process etc) so this probably constitutes the least challenging overall.
2022 - Moon Landing
Again, having two parallel launch sites and vehicles should be a godsend for performing moon landings. Propellant boil-off should be minimized using parallel launches and there’s no such thing as having too much fuel when thousands of miles from home. Possessing the capability to recover every part of the launch system could potentially reduce the time required to develop moon landings from decades down to a year.
While at the moon, they’ll probably take the opportunity to test ISRU propellant production in one of the large craters found at the lunar poles. These craters act as cold traps and reportedly contain billions of tons of frozen water and carbon dioxide, the raw materials needed by SpaceX for ISRU propellant.
2023 - Mars Landing
In early 2023, two unmanned cargo Starships should descend through the tenuous Mars atmosphere. SpaceX can simulate Mars Entry, Descent and Landing but nothing beats the real thing. Crunch time – or more hopefully, a nice soft landing. Likely these specially built Starships will attempt to land at the same site but up to a month apart. This should allow data from the first attempt (whether successful or not) to be studied and used to improve EDL for the second vehicle.
2024 - Closed Ecosystem
This will be tough. SpaceX basically have to create an autonomous life support system designed to keep crew alive for at least two years. Ideally it should regenerate everything: air, food water, with the minimum power input – typically what you might harvest from the ship’s solar cells. No doubt some components and materials will be consumed but these have to be sufficiently minor that a two year store can easily be transported.
2025 - Human Mars Landing
The apex. All being well with previous stages, this will likely be a rerun of the cargo landings two years prior. Staggered spacecraft should burst through the atmosphere and descend on tails of fire to that historic landing site where humanity first begun to fullfil their destiny as a multiplanetary species.
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