Quote:
Originally Posted by TLAM Strike
(Post 1535856)
Its not the ablity to wipe out a thousand Russian cities over ten its the ability to make sure our warheads reach those ten cities. Don't forget that the Russians have a ballistic missile defense system in place (and its been in place since the 1960s). We need those warheads to saturate their defenses and reach the their targets, which are BTW the Russian ICBM sites and not their cities. We need something like one warhead for each enemy ICBM plus one for each ABM... its adds up. :03:
EDIT: Correction... we need one ICBM for each ABM not one warhead since the Soviet/Russian ABMs are area effect weapons (nuclear) they can take out several MIRVs each.
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I have not ignored missile defenmce. But I wonder whether it is reasonable to assume that the Russian's
existing system works so much more reliable than the american
planned missile shield based in Poland, Czech republic etc . I also wonder why you invest so hilariousa mmounts of money into developeing the B-2 if it still does not make you confident that you can penetrate any air defence with that (several missiles instead of one B-2 woulöd be the mor economic solution). Next, there have been and still can be nuclear TLAMs, or comparable systems, plus SLBMs whose flight time to target does not compare to that of an ICBM, reducing their reaction time.
Next, I never believed in the ide aof sclaed nuclear exchaange between nuclear arsenals as big as the Russian and American ones. Any strike versus a taregt in the other nation hardly will be seen as a "limited" strike, but will trigger a full response. When America and Russia start to exchange nukes, you can bet your money on that they reach fast the stage when they do not target "military" goals (in closer vicinty to civil cities...), but cities, starting with the capitals Washington and Moscow.
Finally, you maybe have not understood what a deterrance is. Deterrance is not to let the enemy believe you would limit your strikes and keep one arm bound on your back. Detrrance means that you make the other believe that if he blinks you immediately will hang on his throat.
The luxury of limiting a nuclear exchange to "military targets" only (tell that a radioactive cloud wandering with the wind - we do not talk about nuclear bunker busters and mini-.nukes here, but ICBMS and SLBMS and major airdelivered nuclear bombs)...) a nation will only afford - when the enemy has no nukes at all. ;) Once both enemies have nukes, we talk about the destruction of cities from much sooner on than you maybe believe. Becasue then both believe they are both fighting nut for some abstract concept of "victory", but for mere biological, physical "survival".
Point of it all is: the threat of even just warhead coming through, already is sufficent a detrrance. No side can or will ever be able to guarantee that it can elimininate 100% of all incoming warhgeads, no matter how many or how few there are. Ands that uncertainty that always remains - that is what the balance of terror really was and is basing on.
It's not about a thousand big bangs. It is about even just one. The chance that they will lose Moscow, will make the Russians think twice. Americas will never risk a conflict when it needs to gamble over New York or Los Angeles.
You now see why I am so bitterly detemrined to deny Iran nukes, and to prevent a nuclear arms race in the Mid East, and why I am so outraged over Pakistan having been allowed nukes. Pakistan has around 50 warheads and not even intercontinental carrier systems - and already is claimed to be untouchable by many. North Korea is not even proved but suspected to have even less - and they are considered almost untouchable. It is like with a submarine in naval war. You do not need to have a sub in the vicinity ofd the enemy fleet for real - just letting the enemy think that there is a sub already forces him to massively alter and limit his actions.