The greatest victory in a war is where no shot is fired.

If Putin can get some of his demands without any shot is fired-He has won first round. Here I'm thinking on Ukraines wishes to join NATO

A promise and he can withdraw his troop without having lost his face.

Then there is this problem-the demand on Ukraine is not a stand alone problem Russia also demands demilitarization of former Eastern state like Bulgaria, Romania, Poland and the Baltic States

It can go three way.

1. Putin gets what he wants. 5-6 country leave NATO
2. Putin is promised that Ukraine never will join NATO.
3. Putin gets none of his demands.

Markus

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4ZYZ_uVIjY

US 'lethal aid' arrives in Kyiv amid border build-up https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60096261

/\in today's WSJ: Germany, on the other hand, has frozen weapon shipments including artillery from another NATO nation that 'originated' in Germany... https://sports.yahoo.com/germany-not...060000006.html

On 19 and 21 January 2022, the DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic) People’s Militia reported that it had recorded Ukrainian army preparations to carry out sabotage on the territory of the two People’s Republics, and to actively reignite the Donbass conflict.

Could it be one of these False flag operation ?

Markus

Germany now kindly mulls the delivery of a field hospital. Heartwarming.


Meanwhile the military head of the German navy has to go and clear his post. During a visit in India he stated the obvious, that

1. the Crimean peninsula is in Russian hands and is very unlikely to ever return to the Ukraine. He also said that

2.the Ukraine will not meet the standards that qualify it for NATO membership. Finally he said that

3.what Putin most likelywants more than anything else, is respect, and that repect is cheap to give and could have avoided the situation that now is rerality.

He got fired, more or less. He was early and voluntarily cleared his post.

The German ambassador to Kiev has been called in and been told in clear and angry words that Kievs finds both irritating, unacceptable and dissappointing.

The admiral is right with points 1 and 2, however. His point 3 I think is true, too, but it was unwise to speak it out so frankly.


Edit.

He also said that

4. the chance for a Russian invasion of the Ukraine were nonsense (meaning it will not happen).

Well, could be that it is all bluff. I dont think so, but possible it is.


Vice-Admiral K.-A. Schönbach.

https://static.dw.com/image/60525492_403.jpg

^ He's right on point 2-Ukraine is far from ready to join NATO.

Russia has announced a massive Naval manuover almost everywhere

https://www.maritime-executive.com/a...ng-140-vessels

Markus

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60095459


If you can't break it - bend it.

There's a lot of information but also a lot of disinformation regarding the Ukrainian crisis.

What's up and what's down in all this ?

Markus

At this point, I'd say pick your biased source and take it with a grain of salt.:Kaleun_Thumbs_Up: When I lived in Ore-gone, the local NPR station would play the VoR (Voice of Russia) in English, that would be a trip to listen to now. lol

What German navy might that be? :)

"Europe is now closer to war than it has been since the break up of former Yugoslavia."

Stark words of warning from the senior EU diplomat I've just been speaking to off the record about current tensions with Moscow, over its huge military build-up on the border with Ukraine.

The mood in Brussels is jumpy. There's a real fear that Europe could be spiralling towards its worst security crisis in decades.

But angst isn't wholly focused on the prospect of a long, drawn-out ground war with Russia over Ukraine.

Few here believe Moscow has the military might, never mind the money, or popular support back home for that.

True: the EU warns the Kremlin of "extreme consequences" should it take military action in neighbouring Ukraine. Germany's new Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was in Kyiv and Moscow saying just that on Monday.

Sweden moved hundreds of troops over the weekend to its strategically important Gotland island - which lies in the Baltic Sea. And Denmark strengthened its presence in the region a few days before that.

The rising tensions have also re-ignited the debate in both Finland and Sweden as to whether they should now join Nato.

But the overarching concern in the West - Washington, Nato, the UK and the EU - is less the possibility of conventional warfare over Ukraine, and far more, that Moscow is seeking to divide and destabilise Europe - shaking up the balance of continental power in the Kremlin's favour.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60030615

My standpoint says it will be peace.
Russia and NATO will come to some kind of agreement and everything will calm down.
No invasion of Ukraine.

Markus

Ju...! Ju pad poy, ju! :stare:

For whatever it will ultimately be, the Russians will not ease pressure in this crisis and pull back without having gotten any sort of win, gain, prey, trophy. Just returning to a previous status quo would be an immense loss of face. They will not give up without any sufficient additional gains achieved.