Quote:
Originally Posted by jimbuna
(Post 1965595)
Wondering what the chances are of the Palestinians gaining recognition/admission :hmmm:
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Overwhelmingly in their favour: around 130 countries are expected to vote for them.
Note: they want recognition in pre-1967 borders.
Gaining the status they want now would open them access to UN institutions and UN courts. The latter would enable them to launch huge propaganda offensive against Israel and putting them under pressure without needing to negotiate with them.
The UN status they now seek effectively means to create facts that in negotiations with Israel they have refused to trade by means of give-and-take. In the end, they want avoid having to accept Israel's right to exist, and want access to all its territory for open, unlimited free movement of Palestinians into Israel. which would mean the movement of millions into Israel (Gaza 1,7 million), Westbank 2,4 million, of these 1,7 are Arabs, and then an unknown number of exiled Palestinians scattered around the whole region, and the whole world) Israel has a total population of 7,8 million, 1,8 million of these are Arabs.
Lets have those 1,8 million Arabs in Israel with maybe 1,3 coming from Gaza and 1,8 million from Westbank, and you would have roughly 6 million Jews confronted by 4,9 million Arabs (exiled Palestinian Arabs returning from the diaspora not counted). Consider Palestinian women having a mean of 4 children and Israeli women having "just" 3 - demography is a weapon. Finally see how much smaller shares of the population revolting against the government have brought down the regimes in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, and how one single bus bomb have shocked Israel again during the Gaza war. You do not need almost 5 million Arabs in Israel to threaten state and society from within and overburden the security services, if these riot groups would act with a certain amount of coordination. Even a tenth of those 5 million already could mean major existential threat to Israels structural integrity and security. What would Israel be if 1 million angry Palestinian young men would start to spread riots and unrest across the whole country? ;) It would be a country that would need all its military being bound in trying to keep the upper hand back at home. That means a military unavailable for defending against threats from outside. It also means civil war sooner or later.
As I see it, the Israelis cannot afford and never will accept free movement of Palestinian Arabs into Israel. They would commit suicide by that.
And maybe that is why many Westerners expect them to accept it.