SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - Here we go again-Ukraine once again

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- - Here we go again-Ukraine once again (https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=249066)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Otto Harkaman (Post 2799278)

https://youtu.be/e2_EFJLWA6o

Good film, many details mentioned I never had heard of before.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbuna (Post 2799312)

Putin has laid out his terms for a halt to hostilities in a phone call to Turkey's President, none of which are surprising and most are probably acceptable. The demand for neutrality is probably acceptable but to disarm? (Ironic as it is the Russians who have been the aggressor.) No mention of Russia paying reparations for the lives lost and the damage done.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60785754

That'd be like suicide, throw down all your weapons and say welcome!! :k_confused:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbuna (Post 2799312)

I seriously doubt Russia would have the money or the inclinations to rebuild what they have destroyed in the Ukraine. Considering how self serving Putin is, talking about cessation of hostilities would only be because it's in his own best interests.

If Putin agrees to a seize fire, then there is the ver yhuge risk he only does to win time to move reinforcements in to compensate for the heavy losses.

Several loaded amphibous transport ships seem to be in transit for Russia's far East to the West, as somebody posted. What if they enter the Mediterranean - and head for the Bosporus? What if Putin challenges Turkey - that has closed the straits for warhsips of all nations - thinkling he can bully Turkey and NATO out of the way and enter the Black Sea, arguing maybe that transports are no warships?? Is Turkey and NATO really willing and prepared to stop the ships by force?

Its a speculative scenario, yes. But who dares to rule it out completely when considering the past 3 weeks?

------------

U.S. intelligence agencies apparently assume that China has also been providing military support to Russia since the start of the Ukraine war. According to a classified memo, the coordinator of the US intelligence services, Avril Haines, expressed this view in a NATO briefing. The paper has been obtained by "Business Insider."

According to the memo, Haines had briefed senior NATO officials on March 11 about U.S. intelligence findings on the situation in Ukraine. According to the memo, Haines accuses China of not being neutral in the conflict from the beginning "and still cooperating with Russia." Specifically, he said, China promised Russia military assistance in the war as soon as the invasion began. So far, China has tried to keep the assistance secret. Exactly what military support is involved is not clear from the memo. In fact, the Chinese government has so far officially denied supporting Russia.

FOCUS

On Friday afternoon, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech in Moscow on Russian state television. However, the station suddenly interrupted the broadcast. Instead of continuing to broadcast his speech, the station then simply played old footage.

Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has praised the "special military operation" in Ukraine as a "heroic" effort by the Russian army. All plans were being implemented, Putin told tens of thousands of cheering Russians at Moscow's Lushniki Stadium on Friday, referring to the war in the neighboring country. Shortly afterward, the broadcast on state television was cut short without giving a reason. The television showed recorded images. It was initially unclear what had happened. Instead, recorded material was shown.

FOCUS

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird (Post 2799323)

Does anyone know whether there is any MANPAD existing that has a higher reach than Stingers?

I think the UK is sending Starstreak systems

^^ Any reason why this sudden interruption ?

^ They are sending these Starstreak system to Ukraine

Markus

Ah, I had not counted Starstreak as MANPAD so far, since I so far I only saw images of the missiles being instaled on ground mounted poles, tripods, and additonally wired to some kind of control unit that is a separate large suitcase-sized box. But I just have learned it seems a shoulderpad version also is available!?

I hope Skybird or Rockstar will find time to read my post.
I don't want to fight with anyone here. I'm sure we have nothing to share with you.
On the contrary, I want to share information that is relevant in my country.
I would like to read your opinion.

I did not express my thoughts, but took information from Ukrainian sources
in order to be unbiased and there was no situation of "my word against yours".
I backed up all these words with Internet links.

Dynamics of the state debt of Ukraine.
(https://tyler78.livejournal.com/tag/госдолг)

It is necessary to distinguish between gross external debt and public external debt.
Gross external debt includes both state external debt (government and National Bank)
and non-state (banks, national and joint-stock companies, etc.)
Gross external debt is calculated in US dollars.

But why do we need a non-state debt? This is a problem of private owners, not citizens and
the government. Therefore, I focus on the state and state-guaranteed
debt of Ukraine. Here are the data from the website of the
Ministry of Finance - the national debt of Ukraine

https://index.minfin.com.ua/finance/debtgov/

Pay attention to the sign "State and state-guaranteed debt
Ukraine from 2010 to 2016 (in millions of US dollars)" (it is almost at the bottom of the page).
I compared the data for 01.01.2014 (i.e. the latest under Yanukovych) and the most recent
for 01.07.2016

https://i.postimg.cc/rs892NQ4/2010-2016.jpg

And this is the data for today (the Ministry of Finance has slightly corrected them. The data for 2014 are in
the column of 2013, then Yanukovych was standing at the door)

https://i.postimg.cc/5y3Vr3R3/2-2.jpg

What do we see? Formally, the total debt decreased from 73.1 billion.USD up to 67.1 billion .USD
(highlighted in red). But do not rush to rejoice. Look at the dynamics of external
debt (highlighted in blue): it was $37.5 billion, it became $44.2 billion. That is,
the external debt has increased by almost 7 billion

And what about the internal debt, you ask, has it decreased?
The internal debt, as a rule, is denominated in hryvnia, Therefore
it is logical to compare the dynamics of this debt in the national currency. What we see:

https://i.postimg.cc/Y0mWtcMR/593374-original.jpg

I do not want to manipulate the increase in total debt (highlighted in red),
we will limit ourselves only to internal (highlighted in green).

On 01.01.2014 it was 284 billion, on 01.07.2016 it became 571 billion UAH.

Consequently, the internal debt in hryvnia has doubled.
Let's try to roughly translate this debt into a dollar at the exchange rate
(rate 8 for 01.01.2014 and 25 for 01.07.2016): 284/8=35.5 billion dollars, 571/25=22.84.

As you can see, this calculation practically coincides with the data in the
first plate with the debt in dollars.

What does this mean? This means that the state has devalued the national currency and
devalued the domestic debt. That is, a debt to us. Of course, the devaluation was
necessary and did not come from a good life. This is a question for a separate discussion. But
to give the government and the NBU credit for reducing the public debt, which,
in fact, it happened due to the depreciation of domestic debt in the national currency - this
is manipulation and stupidity.

According to this logic, the weaker the national currency, the better.
If they give 100 UAH for a dollar, the state debt in dollars will decrease even more.
Do you want to? No? And why?
-------------------------------
At the same time, I draw your attention once again, the external public debt
in foreign currency is only
increasing, so there is no reason for joy in this regard at all -
only the internal debt in hryvnia, converted into dollars, is decreasing, and solely
due to devaluation - in the hryvnia itself it has doubled.
------------------------------

And in conclusion. Comparison of the dynamics of public debt and GDP. Manipulations with the exchange rate are already
impossible here - at least this way, at least that way, you will have to compare in one currency. The share of total
public debt in GDP on 01.01.2014 was 40%, and on 01.01.2016 it became 79.4%.
That is, the ratio of public debt to GDP has increased by 2 times in 2 years.

https://i.postimg.cc/8z33KMs6/3.jpg

And this is the data for today (the Ministry of Finance has corrected them again a little.
The data for 2014 are in the column of 2013, then Yanukovych was standing at the door):

https://i.postimg.cc/L4zLX1P3/3-2.jpg

Of course, I'm not saying that Azarov and Yanukovych were great, everything is clear with them,
but I don't like God's dew

================================================== ==============================================

And here's more information for you, to which I took information only from Ukrainian sources

1) What requirements have been put forward by the IMF to Ukraine over the past 26 years.

(https://ru.slovoidilo.ua/2020/04/23/...slednie-26-let)

2) Life in debt: what to expect from Ukraine's cooperation with the IMF in 2019.

(https://ru.slovoidilo.ua/2019/01/10/...-mvf-2019-godu)

3) The IMF has announced the main requirements for Ukraine

(https://ukraina.ru/news/20190212/1022666622.html)

================================================== ==============================================

And now I want to show you this information.

Look at the date of writing this article - 24.01.2022 17:46

Information cover of the West: pumping Ukraine with weapons continues.

(https://news-front.info/2022/01/24/i...rrer=yandex.ru)

The main theses of the article:

These are official statements of NATO countries, and not "stuffing" through separate information channels,
but the thesis "Russia threatens to invade Ukraine" will remain in the minds of Western viewers.
It is surprising that this has been regularly talked about in the West for the last 2-3 months,
and the offensive never happened, but the tightening of NATO equipment and pumping
the development of Ukraine is already happening now. The information cover was successful.

An emergency statement was made by the official representative of the NM DNR Eduard Basurin.
He said that the republican intelligence revealed the facts of the transfer of military
equipment and personnel to the demarcation line. In the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine suspended
vacations, and drivers and gunners are discharged from hospitals. In addition,
crews were seen in places where, according to the Minsk agreements, equipment should be withdrawn.
In addition, Basurin said about the upcoming provocations on the front line

"Reliable information has been received about the arrival of 40
servicemen of the 3rd separate Special Purpose Regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,
who had previously been trained under the guidance of instructors from the UK at
the 142 training center of the MTR of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to carry out provocations in the Avdiivka area," said the officer of the NM DNR.

What is currently known about the actions of NATO:

* Denmark sends a frigate to the Baltic Sea. Four F-16 fighter jets will be sent to Lithuania to support the NATO air policing mission.

* Spain is sending ships to join the NATO naval forces. The possibility of sending fighters to Bulgaria is being considered.

* France is ready to send troops to Romania.

* The Netherlands will send two F-35 fighter jets to Bulgaria from April to support NATO's air policing activities in the region, as well as prepare one ship and ground units for the NATO response force.

* The United States is considering increasing its military presence in Eastern Europe.

I am interested in your opinion. No insults to me.

* Denmark sends a frigate to the Baltic Sea. Four F-16 fighter jets will be sent to Lithuania to support the NATO air policing mission.

* Spain is sending ships to join the NATO naval forces. The possibility of sending fighters to Bulgaria is being considered.

* France is ready to send troops to Romania.

* The Netherlands will send two F-35 fighter jets to Bulgaria from April to support NATO's air policing activities in the region, as well as prepare one ship and ground units for the NATO response force.

* The United States is considering increasing its military presence in Eastern Europe.

These steps has been taken due to your countries aggressive behaviour.
Depending your countries next step decide what measures NATO will take.

Markus

Devaluation of currency has a name: inflation. Inflation serves a state's interest, that is: reducing the debt it has accumulated (by - in the end - expropriating those who need to pay in that currency, which mostly is the ordinary citizen in that state).

Thats the small 1-0-1 of inflation policy.

And it is being done - deliberately - across all the Western world and beyond, China, Russia, the US, everybody who is able to manipulate currency interactions to his advantage. Because ruthless politicians have spend the past 50 years to make sure their states are drowning in debts that were used to bribe the voters. Thats not meant to say its good. It just says that this is how things are, and I am criticising it in the economy thread and other postings since years. My economic orientation is mostly "Austrian", so what would anyone expect of me? Liking it?

Posting tables in Kyrillic will not help much in this forum, btw. We are international, yes, but the language all posters here understand, is English, not Kyrillic. If I understand it correctly the complaint is that the Ukraine has inflation, and debts, and does something with both thta oither natiosn also do, all the time. Well, where is the news? Every nation does that: manipulating the currency and state finances to win time and avoiding getting shot for delaying bancrupcty. Because that is what by definition all states on the globe are: bancrupt, broke. Germany has an explicit debt load of around 80% of its GDP last year, quoting by mind. However, the implicit debts are several times as high as the national GDP. Most other nations are even worse off. And the ECB manipulates the Euro to reward mismanagement and to finance states although it is forbidden to do so.

It will not end nicely.

On the story about who started to arm up when and why I do not comment, its would be a useless effort from beginning on.

This is an older video from 2016 but still interesting, at least for me

https://youtu.be/l1WL2VJOn2A

WW II.V is well underway

God bless ol' Vlad the Bastard Putin: he's certainly reunifying the NATO west: improving our military hardware economy...always good for the GNP!:salute:

Quote:

Originally Posted by WSJ editorial

In the rarest eclipse imaginable, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are in alignment on one thing: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shouldn’t be allowed to pull us into World War III.:doh: Sen. Marco Rubio has chipped in the same portentous thought.
Beware wars to come is always a useful idea, but let’s hope America’s political leadership has a clearer view of what is happening in the here and now. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky does. Asked by NBC News Tuesday if he understood Mr. Biden’s concerns about World War III, replied: “”Nobody knows whether it may have already started.”
Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has already produced World War 2½. World War III is a decades-long Cold War concern. What we’re seeing now is something new—a spontaneous, crowd-funded world-wide effort to fight a war without springing the Armageddon tripwire. Within three weeks, virtually all the world’s democratic nations and peoples have committed to repelling Russia’s invasion. The size, speed and depth of the response is almost incomprehensible.
Countries that have sent modern weaponry or military equipment to Ukraine include not only the U.S. but also the U.K., Germany, France, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Australia, Portugal, Romania, Denmark, Croatia, Slovenia, Italy and Japan. South Korea said Tuesday it will send nearly $1 billion of nonlethal equipment.
Responding to Mr. Zelensky’s Feb. 27 call for an International Legion of Defense of Ukraine, thousands of volunteer fighters, some combat veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan, are pouring in from everywhere. International boycotts have made Russia a corporate, financial and cultural pariah. Overnight, the world’s best nonprofits created an infrastructure of support in Ukraine or on its border.

The post-Cold-War era has never seen anything like what has come to be called “Ukraine,” and it will take time to absorb its meaning and effects.

For starters, those of us who labor in the trenches of the culture wars tend to think tech and its media platforms on balance are corrosive and toxic. And they are. But we need to acknowledge that those same messaging forces—which quickly assemble group thinking on a massive scale—here put in motion something powerful and potentially good.

Will the response stop Mr. Putin? Who knows? But it might, if we posit that the solid building block for this broad effort to resist is Ukraine itself—the unexpected ability of the country’s military to counter the Putin blitzkrieg and its people’s refusal to surrender.

Modern media like YouTube and Instagram helps create tissue-thin celebrities and “influencers.” Here the platforms instantly elevated Mr. Zelensky, a professional comedian, into a heroic influencer motivating his own people and tens of millions outside his country. When is the last time every member of the U.S. Congress stood to applaud a president? The world’s behavior suggests, for the moment anyway, that we’ve decided that we’re all the North Atlantic Treaty Organization now, bound by a kind of global Article 5: A massive unprovoked attack on one of us is an attack on all of us.

Ukraine has put in motion two human impulses: to help and to defend. The first, to help, is a constant in our times. The second, to defend, is an impulse many of us thought had died, as with Germany’s miniaturization of its military capacity.

The help-Ukraine piece emerges paradoxically from the often reflexive, do-good sentiments that seem on tap everywhere today, such as the unfocused virtuousness of “save the planet.” With “Ukraine,” we seem to have arrived at an unlikely conjunction of virtue signaling and genuine virtue. The outpouring for Ukraine is the real thing. Perhaps many all along were seeking an authentic outlet for their better spirits, rather than the constant manufactured appeals—and lately coercion—to be on the “right side” of marginal causes like fur or pronouns. This flight from faux benevolence may not last, but for now it’s all good.

Ukraine’s more enduring effect could be to re-establish the legitimacy of national—and personal—self-defense. Extending baby-land into adulthood is over.

Mr. Putin’s indiscriminate bombing of civilians has restored a historical reality: Well-armed political messianists mean what they say, whether in Moscow, Tehran, Beijing or Pyongyang.

Defense against such threats has two forms: pre-emptive strikes, meaning war, or deterrence. The better default is deterrence.

Deterrence requires a willingness to spend national wealth on defense, as Ukraine chose eight years ago—as NATO, it appears, is willing to do now. Congress in the past week more than doubled Mr. Biden’s proposed percentage increase in the U.S. defense budget. Two months ago, Australia and Japan signed a defense agreement. “Ukraine” has leveled the field of debate between spending on national security and domestic needs.

Invocations of World War III by public figures as prominent as Messrs. Biden and Trump sound like excuses now to revert later to the passive pre-Ukraine status quo. The global support of “Ukraine”—a recognition that suddenly we are in World War 2½, with tough choices ahead—suggests people will be looking for much more than the Cold War status quo from their national leaders.

In 2-daze' WSJ: Putin has accused Biden of "personal insults" for labelling him a "war criminal"!!?? dead children and raped women notwithstanding.... :timeout: :hmmm: even as Russian artillery has shelled the Baba Yar Holocaust monument outside Kiev! :oops:

$10 American bucks says the Peoples Republic of Donetsk, never sees a day of actual independence but rather is absorbed by Russia, at most as a vassal state but more likely just a backwater province of Russia. You're destined to be on the wrong side of the new Iron Curtain that Putin will be putting up once he is kicked out of Ukraine.

I remember patrolling the free side of the last Iron Curtain many years ago when Putin was just a low ranking KGB assassin. I also remember the black wreathes the Germans would put up wherever someone died trying to escape that communist paradise. There were a lot of wreaths.

So what will you do with the 70% or so of the regions population who are Ukrainian and don't want to be severed from their mother country? Drive them out, kill them, send them to some Siberian Gulag? What's the plan or has your new master not told you yet?