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[Die Welt] Natural disasters inevitably trigger the climate change industry to profit from them. Politicians, activists and the media are now also blaming global warming for the fires in the Los Angeles region. But the claim is untenable.
It is true that studies show that the affected region must expect more droughts as a result of climate change. But as one of the authors of these studies, climatologist Patrick Brown, analyzes, other influences dominate the forest fire events, including poor forest management and the increasing number of people who trigger forest fires. The current fires are unlikely to have anything to do with global warming: The “moderate drought” in the affected region, according to the weather service, is normal, as is the second meteorological disaster ingredient, strong downslope winds from the northeast. The so-called Santa Ana winds are fanning the fires and causing them to spread rapidly. In the course of climate change, however, the winds are likely to weaken because the mainland of the USA is heating up faster than the oceans - and the pressure difference causing the winds would therefore decrease. If strong downdrafts prevail, all that is needed is arson. “In the Southern California region, 100 percent of all fires during Santa Ana winds are the result of human ignition, intentional or accidental,” write forest fire researchers in the scientific journal ‘Science Advances’. If strong downdrafts prevail, all that is needed is arson. “In the Southern California region, 100 percent of all fires during Santa Ana winds are the result of human ignition, intentional or accidental,” write wildfire researchers in the scientific journal ‘Science Advances’. California is wildfire country; in fact, the vegetation needs fire to thrive. Although the state has experienced huge fires in recent years, the historical classification takes away their peculiarity: studies show that more than a hundred years ago, fires often burned just as much and far more intensely. “California's forests are suffering from mismanagement”, wrote an expert commission in 2018, calling for the government to change its strategy. Donald Trump also recently complained about a deliberate lack of firefighting water in California. In a 2018 study, researchers from the University of Berkeley also complained about wrong policies. “We are not at the mercy of climate change”, summarizes co-author Van Butsic, ‘there are known practices that can be successfully applied’. https://www.welt.de/debatte/article2...el-schuld.html |
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work van and is now in Palm Springs at my sister-in-law's house. He's pretty sure his carpender shop, from which he hastily grabbed some items, is toast but his apartment has survived. I'm also checking on an old prepschool classmate, an orthopedic surgeon, who lives in Pacfic Palisades on the coast. As of this AM's Wall Street Journal frontpge, practically the whole town of very highend homes is obliterated. |
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That shows pretty well how strong the winds are. |
Being here in LA, in particular in Hollywood, I thought I'd share what I've observed and heard over the past few days; the winds were fully expected a number of days before the fires, with forecasters showing maps of the expected wind paths and strengths; in the area of Pacific Palisades, gust of up to 100 MPH were forecasted and, indeed, gust of 98 MPH were recorded on the fire day; Pacific Palisades is (or was) a seaside community tucked away in valleys in the coastal mountainside; there is really only one wide road into the enclave and no "backdoor" to use for escape; in addition, developers laid out the housing in a sort of meandering manner resulting in a large number of culs de sac and narrow streets and roads; when the fire in the Palisades started in the brush surrounding, the winds just tore through the flames, spreading them like flamethrowers over the entire area, bathing houses and businesses with sparks, embers and flame; it was really very fast and the residents didn't have much time to prepare for such an onslaught; the streets were clogged with cars and trucks trying to get out to the main road out of the area; first responders were stymied by the clogged roads and, eventually, ordered the drivers and passengers to grab what they could carry and abandon their vehicles; the firefighters had to resort to using bulldozers to shove a path through the vehicles in order to get their vehicles through to fight the fires; the smoke from the Palisades fire was visible from all the way to past Downtown LA, a distance of some 20 miles...
The Palisades fire has leveled the entirety of Pacific Palisades, for all intent and purposes, with precious few structures surviving; the devastation is near total; embers and flames even jumped over the coastal highway and consumed beachside homes and businesses that had been there for decades ... There have been a few other fires breaking out in the past couple of days in the area; night before last, a fire broke out in the Hollywood Hills in an area known as Runyon Canyon, about a mile and a half from where I live; in ripped through the Canyon and did a lot of damage before the firefighters could get handle on it; it was something to walk out my buildings door and see the sky full of smoke and the red glow just a short distance away... Another really major fire broke out in an area known as Altadena and has been called the Eaton Fire (fires are generally named after landmarks or major street and roads in the fire area); this fire really exploded in the high winds and is still raging; like Pacific Palisades, the fire has leveled whole sections of residential neighborhoods and, at one point, was threatening critical telecommunications facilities (TV, Radio, cell, etc.) on Mount Wilson, located above the fire area; the Mount Wilson Observatory was also in danger for a long while, but firefighters were able to make a stand and save Mount Wilson; the Eaton fire is particularly bad because Altadena sits in a sort of geographic ,bowl' in the foothills of the mountains; when the wind storms hit, the winds passing through the valleys and passes surrounding Altadena formed a swirling vortex over and around the city, swirling flames and embers in all directions; the situation was exactly what one would describe as an out of control firestorm... The wind have been settling down in the last 24 hours and there is an awful lot of manpower and equipment on the scenes; fire crews from all over the state, and out of state, are here trying to help the local fire first responders; as is often the case with situations like this, there are those who are stupid or evil enough to just add to the woes of the authorities; a water dropping plane was grounded after some ass decided it was a good idea to enhance his social media by flying a drone into an active fire fighting area and their drone collided with and punched a hole into the plane; the plane had been sent down from Canada to assist in fighting the fires; I hope they catch the ass and throw the book (and bookcases) at him... Another problem that popped up, particularly in the Eaton fire; looters were spotted and arrested by Sheriffs' Deputies and a request was put out to activate the CA National Guard to provide troops to secure fire areas and interdict any lotters or other criminals; the Guard is now on duty and the local governments have issued curfews for the fire areas from 6PM to 6AM daily to make it more difficult for criminals to roam about and to make it easier for first responders to move from scene to scene as they fight the fires... I've got to say one thing about the response thus far; I was skeptical of the various local governments (city, county, state, and Federal) and the various Fire and Law Enforcement entities to function smoothly without turf fights or pettiness, but the lot of them have been coordinating with surprising smoothness and efficiency and have been responding quickly to changing conditions; kudos to them all... Previous wildfires in this area have mainly been in remote rural areas, not rather more urban areas such as the most recent fires; it is really a shock to see neighborhoods similar to those in which one lives being leveled and in such proximity to here... <O> |
Yet over here we're worried about having too much water almost everywhere :hmmm:
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Seeing a number of reports that the fires were caused by arsonists....any truth in that?
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^ That's helpful thanks but I notice some news sources, NBC news for example still aren't ruling arson as the cause out.
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In fact a docu over here said that the overwhelming majority of wildfires in california in the modern present are being caused by accidental or intentional arson - not lightning, as some say. It's also being mentioned that the forest management is poor, that dead wood was left laying around, which helpd fire to spring over on ground level. There, dead wood not being removed also was the main cause for the speed and scale at which the disaster unfolded. This reminds me of the big wildfires they had in Montana in the late 80s or early 90s that, if I recall correctly what I have red, consumed an extremely big quantity of he state's forest, or do I remember that wrong? This, and the drought conditions and the hydrants not being designed for the capacities in emergencies of this scale, played together. They said that beyond this, California always burns, since always, its due to the Santa Ana winds. In Winter polar or at least very cold winds collect in the plateau area between the Sierra Madre and the Rockies, and then "spill over" and race down the Sierra Madre's coast-faced cliffs, gaining these enornmous speeds there when falling down.
As a European used to houses build of stone and concrete, not wood, I notice that everything that burned so well now was made of wood. And was build in an area where to build human settlements maybe is not the wisest idea. |
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The fire news coverage has been pretty much 24/7 here in LA and, thus far, no definitive proof of arson has been verified by official authorities; a lot of the arson claims have been spread by social media sites and have no veracity at all; addionally, there have been some individuals and entities stoking wild claims, including arson, in order to advance various political agendas, with some of those claims/reports coming from outside Los Angeles and/or California; it is a shame some would seek to make political hay from the personal tragedies afflicting so many affected individualsls and families... On the subject of possible fire causes, local news has been reporting one of the local power companies, Southern California Edison (SCE), tried to quietly file notifications related to two of the wildfires with CA State regulator regarding their equipment in those areas as being possible auses of those fires; the filings are required by CA State law and were prompted by enquiries by insurance companies to the State Regulators; other than acknowledging the existence of the filings, SCE has not specifically addressed the issue of their equipment being a possible cause... It should be noted, however, at the very beginning of the fires, there were local reports by residents in at least one of the fire areas of smoke and explosions of some kind emanating from underground electrical vaults; residents who did the reporting were also critical of lax response from the utility companies responsible for the vaults and their equipment, so there may be some substance to claims of power company culpability... As noted in another post, one of the most devastating fires, the Eaton Fire, was caused by an indoor house fire that spread outdoors and was fanned by the raging winds; none of the various official authorities or official entities has officially noted or claimed any verified arson has occurred; arson is, obviously, still on the table,pending further investigation, but has not at all been reported or confirmed... On Saturday, a contingent of dozens of trained fire fighters arrived in LA provided by the government of Mexico to assist in the firefighting efforts and are a welcome addition to the firefight; also to be noted is the efforts of a very large number of CA State prisoners who have been trained to fight wildfires and have been on the frontlines of the fires since the start of the effort; they are all volunteers and are receiving the equivalent of less than $1.00 USD per day for their labor... Regarding the idiot ass who flew a drone into one of the firefighting water dropping aircraft, the FBI has stepped in and is actively, and aggressively, investigating and pursuing whoever is responsible for the drone; aside from the various laws and regulations broken, the liability for the damage to the Canadian aircraft will no doubt be hefty; the drone punched a sizable hole into the leading edge of thr plane's port wing... <O> |
The avearge price of a Pacific Pasades home being $2,000,000
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https://www.latimes.com/california/s...by-was-offline |
Well, your ChinCom theory makes just about as much sense as some of the other social media postings running through the Web, including some reports from certain "news" sources... :03:
Aside from making his usual snide snipes in social media, Trump himself has been MIA regarding the fire disaster; the subject came up in this morning's (Jan 12) update press conference, a now at least once daily occurrence where fire,sheriff, and police cheifs as well as county supervisors, mayor's ot affecred cities, and department heads of responsible agencies all gather to publicly report on their individual and collective situations and efforts; following their reports, there was a question and answer session and all the questions were, thankfully, related to the actual critical fire situation until a reporter from a particular news organization demanded to know if the LA County Supervisors present or the Mayor of LA had made an effort to personally contact Trump; the resp0onse from the Supervisors and the Mayor was that, yes, they had tried to contact Trump, but had only been able to get in touch with his represetat8ve and there had been no actual, specific response fr9mvtrump himself... Regarding the empty reservoir, the LA City Department of Water & Power (LADWP) is responsible for the reservoir in question and was initially called out for it being offline when the fire started most notably by Governor Newsom, who ordered an investigation into the situation; however, it has since been learned the reservoir was offline due to to a previously scheduled required maintenance operation; LADWP specifically scheduled the maintenance for the winter months because weather condtion in winter normally aren't conducive to fire danger; it has also been noted, give the extreme severity, intensity, and speed of the fire, the water in the reservoir would have had little or effect on the progression of fire; also there is the fact that power was lost early in the fire rendering the ability to even pump water out of the reservoir, had it been there, very questionable... All in all, the whole situation has been a perfect storm of very, very unfortunate c8rcumstances with extremely and unseasonal winds fanning flames in locations where you would least like to see any major blazes at all... <O> |
As an FYI, this is a link to a local news report regarding how seriously the FBI is taking the drone strike:
https://abc7.com/post/california-wil...fire/15792412/ <O> |
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Against the fires that rage in California stone walls would not really make much of a difference. Everything inside the houses would still burn to cinders, and it doesn't really matter if the bare stone walls remain or not, as they will be damaged beyond repair by the heat. And even European houses are rarely built without wood, on the contrary, they contain more than enough wood (you won't need to look further than right under your roof). |
Just saw this; a frame of reference on the fire...
Maps and images reveal scale of LA wildfire devastation - https://www.yahoo.com/news/los-angel...180658307.html <O> |
Normally, Jan is the rainy season but not this year. :(
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You folks in Cali take care. I mean it, we aren't getting younger. :huh:
Worst case, the first one who makes it to central Iowa can claim the love seat. :yeah: Its a small apartment, but this is a submarine-centered forum and it won't be any worse than crew's berthing. :sunny: Out here, the good news is no fires. The bad news is artic temperatures and high winds, just like normal. :doh: |
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SantaRosa fire when the wild fire rules changed and destroyed an entire urban subdivision(4 deaths) in downtown Santa Rosa.... https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...8&postcount=50 |
The local authorities, as well as state and federal, are indeed having to deal with all sorts of wild and misleading mis/disinformation related to the fires, a burden added to their more crucial and critical tasks; some of it is the usual tinfoil hat crackpot stuff, but there has been an unusual amount of directed, intentional unnecessary 'noise' added by those seeking to advance particular views or agendas; one that really bothered me is comments made by a man who ran for LA mayor in the last city elections and who lost; very soon after the Palisades Fire, he griped about how he felt the current City administration had botched the fire response, offering no proof to back up his claims; he was roundly swatted down by responses from all quarters of the city and has been curiously silent since; the guy is a local billionaire who has made his fortune in commercial real estate and who owns a wide range of properties including several very large retail shopping centers; he became silent after several of those responding to his comments pointed out that one of the properties spared by the fire while others burned to the ground was a shopping center, owned by his company, firefighters successfully defended; I want to point out I actually voted for the guy in the last mayoral election, but, now, I'm pretty sure I'll be a bit more circumspect...
The local area is bracing for a new round of dreaded Sant Ana Winds, the main cause of the spread of last week's wildfires; I could try to describe the winds, but this Wikipedia link is better: Santa Ana Winds - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Ana_winds I was just watching a local news report about the upcoming wind event, and a fire spokesman was asked about the wind's effect on firefighting efforts; he said, "at 10 MPH winds, we're firefighters, at 30 MPH wind, we're spectators"; in addition, at wind speeds at or above 40 MPH, aerial support is unavailable due to dangerous flight conditions; the terrain makes flying at very low altitudes way to risky, given abrupt crosswinds, down/updrafts, etc.; you have admire and respect the pilots and crews of the aircraft dropping retardant/water on the flames so close to the ground, particularly those flying the bigger planes; and don't be deceived by the aerial photos of the fire areas; the terrain is lot stepper than the photos show and that, along with the winds, the heat of the fires, and the creation of microclimates within the firestorms make drops into the areas extremely dangerous... One thing noted about the daily updates from authorities has been the continued presence and availability of the actual responsible leaders of the various entities involved in the response to the fires; rather than having a spokesperson or PIO come out to make statements or answer questions, the actual heads of the entities have continously been there to make reports and to answer media questions personally; the mayor's of the affected areas, the fire and police chiefs, the LA County Sheriff, and the heads of responsible agencies have all made themselves available to report and respond to the media; I don't recall another incident where the response by the responsible has been so thorough... <O> |
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