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Some other sources you all may wish to consult for information from both sides on this topic:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- den Elzen, M & M Meinshausen. "Multi-gas emission pathways for meeting the EU 2°C climate target," Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. 2005. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Cambridge University Press. 2001. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report: Summary for Policy Makers. Joint Statement of Science Academies: Global Response to Climate Change, 2005 Michaels, Patrick J. "Non-Linear Climate Change," World Climate Report. 9 Aug 2004. Michaels, Patrick J. "Observations, Not Models," World Climate Report. 14 April 2004. Michaels, Patrick J. "Hot Tip: Post Misses Point," World Climate Report. 31 Jan 2006. National Acadamies of Science. "Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions," The National Academies Press. 2001. Pielke, Jr., R. A., C. Landsea, M. Mayfield, J. Laver and R. Pasch. "Hurricanes and Global Warming," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Nov 2005. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Quoting some of the statements made by institutions mentioned in these articles that are researching and studying the subject of climate change, global warming, and the greenhouse effect and concur with the majority of the scientific community that it exists. The National Academy of Sciences, 2001: Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. The National Academy of Sciences, 2005: There is now strong evidence that the rate at which the Earth is heating due to increases in CO2 over China and India from their industrial centers has accelerated definitively within the past two decades ... Thus, we have confirmed that the ~140 billion tons of greenhouse gases emitted daily into the atmosphere by human beings alone is in fact having an effect on the environment. NASA GISS - Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2007:Results from coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models driven by a variety of greenhouse gas emission scenarios indicate that planet Earth warmed by 2*C relative to the Industrial Age; and by 1.3*C from 1950 to the present. Around every 10 years, to the extent that the global community continues to follow a "business-as-usual" path with a heavy reliance on fossil fuels and will not seek to limit greenhouse gas emissions, the climate will pass the 2*C threshold sooner than later, between 2026 and 2060. Much of this range is caused by uncertainties in future greenhouse emissions (whether the rate shall continue to climb or regulations shall be imposed to force it to moderation). --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- To summarize from other sources here on the web and in literary works, and to educate here and now those who are still reading, let us ask ourselves one single question: is the increase in CO2 man-made? And I shall address it in an at least moderately well organized format. Simple Accounting (second order evidence) The first thing one must look at for this is simple accounting. We know how much carbon (as in fossil fuels) we've burned since the beginning of the Second Industrial Revolution and birth of the Industrial Age. The total amount comes to around twice as much as the increase in atmospheric CO2 (we'll get into where the last part went - when we get further on in this debate; see the first three citations for this particular segment's sources of information). Carbon Isotopes (first order evidence) The second thing which scientists and we can base our conclusions upon are measurements of carbon (C-12) and its isotopes (C-14 and C-13) in the atmosphere (referred to as the Suess Effect; cited in the fourth and fifth sources listed). Carbon-14 is created in the upper troposphere by high-energy reactions created by cosmic rays. It's is radioactive and has a half-life of 5730±40 years. Because it is radioactive, it undergoes radioactive decay. As such, it's frequently used in dating objects just around 100,000-years-old (radiometric dating can trace back billions of years, on a related note). Oil, coal, and other fossil fuel materials have no carbon-14 content (as it's decayed away over the 65 million years or so that the oil began formulating, around the time of the mass extinctions of the dinosaurs and 90% of all life on the surface of Earth). So, when we burn the fossil fuel materials, they release carbon with no C14 content. This means that the amount of C14 in the atmosphere should fall, and indeed it does. Carbon-13 has the strange characteristic that causes plants to not particularly "like it", so when plants use CO2 in carrying out their metabolic photosynthesis pathway, they avoid using the C13. This means that plant material is consisting almost completely of carbon-12, and for the same reason, oil, coal, and other fossil fuel materials contain almost no C13. So when we burn it we'll see the same effect as for C14: The relative abundance of (C12,C13,C14) changes. The latter two (C13,C14) and their relative abundance work as a fingerprint as to where the carbon is coming from. This means we can trace their sources for each cubic foot of the gases we capture and study. Plant material has low levels of C13 but normal levels of C12 and C14. CO2 produced from dissolution in the oceans has normal levels of C12 and C13 (normal levels of C14, but could be low if the CO2 came from the bottom, for whatever reason). Fossil fuel materials have low levels of C13 and C14 (being almost pure C12). So when the atmospheric level of C13 and C14 falls (as measured and documented by practically all climate change research institutes and organizations) in proportion to C12, then we can see that it comes from the burning of fossil fuels. Consequently, we know it was not produced naturally, but from human beings burning the fuels for whatever reason (cars, industrial complexes, power plants, etc.). Paleo-data (first order evidence) This line of evidence is primarily inferred during the last stable geological period (around 20 million years ago). CO2 in the atmosphere has varied between 180ppm (the coldest parts of a glacier) and 300ppm (the warmest part of the interiors of the glaciers). We know this from several paleo sources, particularly ones relating to ice core samples that have been taken from all around the globe. All results gathered have shown virtually the same thing: a general trend of warming followed by a violent period after the Second Industrial Revolution and the birth of the Industrial Age. During the last 150 years (or since we started to burn fossil fuels like coal in factories, steamships, and the like), the atmospheric content of CO2 has risen by 35.7% from 280ppm (has been reasonably stable here for the last 20.000 years) to currently around 380ppm (see the sixth and seventh sources listed below). That's a large increase, not at all like the natural trends found before. Sinks and Sources (second order evidence) This line of evidence is based upon tallying the various sources, and the various sinks of CO2; what is calculated is the net sink or net sources. The ocean, for instance is emitting CO2 (the algae in it is anyway), but is also sinking CO2 (from other types of algae, too). By subtracting these fluctuations, we can see how much the oceanic contribution to the carbon budget is (eighth source listed). When calculating this we can see that the annual contribution to the atmosphere is around 2ppm (or 4.26 Gt CO2), and we can also see that the only source where this can come from is from human (antropogenic) sources. Since nature as a whole is acting as a sink, save for a few exceptions. Oxygen content (first order evidence) The last one is rather simple. When carbon is burned, it oxidizes. That means that it uses 1 oxygen molecule. So for each new carbon atom released, 2 oxygen atoms are used. This can be measured since in each 100 atoms of fossil fuel carbon burned, about 140 molecules of O2 are consumed (ninth source listed) Addendum here: the reason that this line of evidence is important is that if the CO2 had come from the oceans as many global warming/climate change deniers claim, the oxygen level would not fall as the CO2 is released with oxygen molecules from the oceans as well (tenth source listed). It would have been theoretically possible for the CO2 to come from the very bottom of the oceans (for example, large outgassings beyond what Henry's law could counteract and thus elude us by still making the surface waters acidic), which means that it could have been stored away for thousands of years, exhibiting the same C14 depletion as fossil fuels, so that the oxygen level falls proportionally with CO2 increase. This means that the CO2 couldn't originate in the oceans, but if this were true, then this wouldn't have the C13 signature seen though. The same can be said for volcanoes, as they also release it as CO2 (without oxygen from the atmosphere). This happens by metamorphism of basic elements and substances. For instance, carbonates reacting with quartz, the chemistry being represented as: CaCO3 + SiO2 = CO2 + CaSiO3. The calcium silicates (CaSiO3) come back out as lava, adding to continental crust, and the CO2 comes out of the volcanoes as an explosive gas- which leaves very few atmospheric traces despite claims made by deniers and their "research". --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sources: CDIAC CO2 emissions http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/global.1751_2005.ems Mauna Loa atmospheric CO2 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/maunaloa.co2 1 ppm by volume of atmosphere CO2 = 2.13 Gt C http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/convert.html Tans et al(1979) "Natural atmospheric 14C variation and the Suess effect" Nature 280, 826 - 828; doi:10.1038/280826a0 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal.../280826a0.html Battle et al(2000) "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C" Science 31 March 2000: Vol. 287. no. 5462, pp. 2467 - 2470 DOI: 10.1126/science.287.5462.2467 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conten...;287/5462/2467 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/vostok.html http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/lawdome.gif http://www.whrc.org/carbon/index.htm Bender et al(2005) "Atmospheric O2/N2 changes, 1993–2002: Implications for the partitioning of fossil fuel CO2 sequestration" Global Biochemical Cycles, vol. 19, gb4017, doi:10.1029/2004GB002410 http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/200...GB002410.shtml Wallace S. Broecker "Et tu, O2" http://www.columbia.edu/cu/21stC/issue-2.1/broecker.htm |
I have to ask: what does the "pro-climate change" group here have against accountability? Is there some belief that any admission of any fraudalant behavior whatsoever will somehow diminish your point?
Such a stance is why public trust in the scientific community continues to drop. |
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The problem we have, not that I am necessarily "pro-climate change" (I follow where the science goes), is unsubstantiated rumor and allegations. The hysterics that have followed the so called 'climategate' (talk about a loaded word) go far beyond any potential evidence that has surfaced to date. Me I will wait till the end of the formal investigation, before I draw any conclusions. Also even if there is proven fraud (which right now I am doubtful of) it doesn't even come close to toppling the theories, this is just one of many research groups out there doing this type of research. |
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http://socialissues.wiseto.com/Articles/FO3020630014/ "Despite enjoying strong support in the scientific community, a vast majority of the public remains skeptical over Darwinian evolution: in a 2006 Gallup poll, only 13 percent of those surveyed said that they believed humans evolved on earth with no help whatsoever from a creator." If they're ignorant about the subject and yet they still comment on it anyway, then their opinions are not worth a damn. Because they have no idea what they're talking about. The public too often ignores all the wonderful tools science has created for them to use- like antibiotics, cars, cell phones, COMPUTERS, THE INTERNET, aircraft, ships, new medical techniques and practices- I don't think I really need to go on in strenuous detail. |
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Stealth Hunter - not only do you try an insult me repeatedly in this thread, such as calling me a thief, implying that because I disagree I have no scientific knowledge or ability, etc, you then go and "quote" me as saying something I never said......
http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showpost.php?p=1311955&postcount=166 You seriously are a piece of work, ya know that. Neon can discuss things reasonably - though we may disagree - and he doesn't make it personal. "Originally Posted by CaptainHaplo You naughty boy, Haplo will put you on his ignore list :har: " I mean seriously - you have to make up a quote of me as saying something I didn't say, and do it as if I speak of myself in the third person to boot? That is just.... pathetic..... |
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Continuing on topic.
I think it time we touch upon the greenhouse effect, which is poorly understood by many deniers today. The effect itself is what keeps the earth warm and habitable for us. If we didn't have it, Earth’s surface would be about 60*Fahrenheit on average. Since the average temperature of Earth is about 45*F, the natural greenhouse effect is clearly a good thing, as are the gases in limited quantity. But the enhanced greenhouse effect means even more of energy given off by the sun is trapped by having too many of the gases in our atmosphere, the result of course being global temperatures rising. By pumping man-made greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, humans are altering the process by which naturally occurring greenhouse gases trap the sun's energy before it can be released back into space. The main gases are as followed:
All chlorofluorocarbons listed are damaging to ozone, the greenhouse gas (albeit, a harmless one) that is there to protect us from the sun's great amount of energy and UV-rays. Today, tropospheric composition of these gases is as follows (in parts per billion with the numbers from 1750 included for comparison):
Source of graphical information: Blasing, T.J. ad K. Smith 2006. "Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations." In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Cetner, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN, USA. Global CO2 flows, carbon reservoirs, and changes in the reservoirs can best be displayed via a statistical figure representative: http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads...ure2_image.gif The tan colored pool is decreasing in size, but the blue colored pools are increasing. Intensity of the blue color indicates the magnitude of stock change. The numbers in orange indicate the total amount of carbon in the reservoir discovered by NCAR, green ones the average annual change in the amount of carbon in the reservoir. Also note that a gigaton (as the graph is displayed in; Gt.) are as follows: 1 Gt = 109 metric tons Source of graph: Bolin et al. in NCAR, 2007a; Houghton. As shown in the graph, the annual average human-induced flows of CO2 - 6.3 gigatons from fossil fuel combustion and 1.6 Gt from deforestation in the from the late 1990s/early 2000s- are a small fraction of total CO2 flows. However, these flows are resulting in increased carbon in the ocean and atmospheric reservoirs on Earth. Anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O comprise a much larger share of total emissions of these gases than is the case for CO2. Approximately 70% of the 550 million metric tons of CH4 emitted annually and about half of the 14 MMT of N2O emitted annually are due to human activities, concentrated over large industrial nations- chiefly being India and China (source: also Bolin et al. in NCAR, 2007a). It should be noted that water vapor also acts as a significant contributor to the greenhouse effect (which, for the record, is not at all like how a literal greenhouse works). This is a result of the natural cycle of water. And now, I'm out for the night. |
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Is it in the fiction section? Oh I get it, you take the words and change them into something else. Thats been a recurrent theme by some people since post#1. Citing as "evidence" for their conspiracy theories words that were never said, events that never happened and "experts" who have no expertise in the field. Quote:
Its quite illuminating really on both this and the creationist topic, he only sees what he wants to see .:rotfl2: |
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http://www.religioustolerance.org/ev_publi.htm Anyhow might I suggest we all relax a little and keep this discussion to the "facts" themselves and not let this get personal? I also would suggest that everyone referencing things, including if the idea presented is not your own (ie plagiarism). |
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The two biggest sides in the global warming debate are those who support its existence and those who deny its existence. Furthermore, the 87% listed off their cannot believe in much else. I mean how much clearer than:"Despite enjoying strong support in the scientific community, a vast majority of the public remains skeptical over Darwinian evolution" can you get? Either it happened with the help of a creator or it didn't. It's a simple issue, undecideds be damned- because they have to be skeptical in some form or another not to know which side they should go with. That is assuming anybody could vote "Undecided" on that particular poll. I doubt few did in this case, and other cases aren't much better. The United States' standing compared to other countries is, to say the least, pitiful as far as the common populace is concerned: http://cdn.cloudfiles.mosso.com/c148...eEvolution.jpg Source: J. D. Miller, R. Pardo, F. Niwa, Public Perceptions of Science and Technology: A Comparative Study of the European Union, the United States, Japan, and Canada (BBV Foundation Press, Madrid, 1997). Quote:
The only group of that lot that even remotely affiliates themselves with science are the Theistic Evolutionists (who, even then, still believe in god); still, there's only five denominations that are supportive of them- including the Church of Nazarene, the United Methodist Church, the Lutheran Church, some sects of Anglicans and some Catholics (the Catholic view to this very day remains one of limited acceptance; at least it's progress in the right direction). Quote:
:salute: |
Continuing on topic.
One of the most important bits of evidence touched upon are global surface temperature trends. The global average surface temperature fluctuates over time, but in recent decades it has increased dramatically. From 1920 to the present, Earth’s average surface temperature has increased by 1.4*F. According to the National Academy of Sciences, this change is the largest global temperature rise in at least the last 2,000 years and may steal the record from the last 5,000 years. The sharpest rise occurred between 1975 and 2005, when temperatures rose steadily by about 1*F on average. The recent increase in concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is the result of human activities, as we discussed earlier- mainly the burning of fossil fuels. As the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased, so has the average surface temperature (to reiterate). The relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and surface temperature is shown here for the past 150 years. http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads...007_092528.gif The quality sucks, but the red line represents surface temperature, the pink outline represents the uncertainty range, the blue line represents CO2 concentration. The graph begins in 1845 and ends in 2005, and each number along the bottom represents an elapsed interval of 20 years. Source for CO2 concentration data: Keeling, C.D. and T.P. Whorf, 2005. Atmospheric CO2 records from sites in the SIO air sampling network. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. DOE, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. Source for temperature data: Brohan, P., I. Haris, S.F.B. Tett, P.D. Jones, and J.J. Kennedy, 2006. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research, p. 111, 2003. Over the last 400,000 years. http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads...107_062554.gif Again, the quality is bad, but the red line represents Antarctic surface temperature, the blue line pre-industrial atmospheric CO2, the yellow-orange line human-contributed atmospheric CO2. Intervals along the x-axis go for 50,000 years each, starting 400,000 years ago and ending in the present. This data was also collected by C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, published on pages 121-126 of issue #398 of Nature magazine in 2000. The graph below this section of paragraphs compares measurements of the Earth’s past temperature variations (shown by the black line) with simulations of past temperature variations (shown by the red and blue lines) in order to determine whether the major changes in temperature were caused by natural or human-caused factors. The black line shows observed surface temperature variations from the average. The blue and red lines show computer model results when past temperatures are simulated including different drivers of the climate system. Natural drivers include solar radiation and volcanic emissions, while anthropogenic (man-made) drivers include man-made greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. The blue line shows variation when natural drivers are included in the calculations, while the red line shows variation when both natural and anthropogenic drivers are included. This graph shows that the combination of natural and anthropogenic drivers (the red line) provides a better match to the observed temperatures (black line) than only natural drivers (the blue line). Natural drivers alone can explain much of the temperature change in the first half of the century, as demonstrated by the similarity between the black and blue lines during that time period. As can be seen with the close match between the red and black lines, human-produced drivers strongly dominated the temperature change in the latter part of the 20th century. http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads...ttribution.gif It's of somewhat better quality. The source: Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, C.M. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, T.M.L. Wigley, and C. Tebaldi, 2004. Of Models and Men. Journal Collective of Scientific Minds, p. 44, found in the January 2005 edition. The graph below shows the heat content of the ocean measured at three depths: from 0-300 meters (red line), from 0-700 meters (blue line), and from 0-3000 meters (gray line). Each line on the graph corresponds to measurements taken at one of these three depths and shows a gradual increase in heat content over time. Warming of the oceans has many consequences, including sea level rise, coral bleaching, loss of sea ice, intensification of hurricanes, and higher coastal storm surges. Taken together with the graph below, this shows that increased temperatures have been observed at Earth’s surface and in the oceans. http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads...eat-trends.gif Source: Levitus, S., J. Antonov, and T. Boyer, 2005. Journal of Geophysical Research, p. 66, 2005. Tonight, I'll cover the issue of impacts of the enhanced greenhouse effect, climate change, and global warming. |
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