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Good analysis by Stratfor, they're usually pretty good at putting the dots together. The Fajr-5 is quite large, but small enough to be able to be hid in buildings, or more likely, underground.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...GRAM_FINAL.JPG There are TELs, but I imagine that most rockets are fired from improvised static locations. To underline one of the reasons Israel is taking these new missiles more seriously, there is another picture of Hamas's missile history: http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...s-2012-1-m.jpg As you can see, they represent a big step up from the rockets that have been lobbed over the border up until now. I wouldn't be surprised if this rocket has a lot to do with the indications that Israel is intending to go in with ground forces to root the stockpiles out. The strikes, considering mission count to kill count, have been very surgical...however when the ground troops go in, it's going to likely get messy. The last time (2007-2008) had a range of nearly 1,500 fatalities, mostly Palestinian. It's a Catch-22 situation, if Israel doesn't go in, then it's a long old air based slug with the political tide against it, there will be more pictures of dead children and more Fajr rockets for Iron Dome to practice with. If it does go in then it's going to be even more piles of dead children for CNN and more support for the Palestinians. Hamas, on the other hand knows that Israel is coming, but hopes it can ensnare it in the streets of Gaza, this will end badly for Hamas but Hamas doesn't care because it will gain global support via the media. For Israel, it depends on not having pictures of dead Israelis broadcast around the world, because if that happens then it has failed to protect its people, so that means a very one sided death count which makes for very good teatime broadcasts. This conflict has been going on since at least October, but has only just started making headlines after the intensity ramped up. Rocket attacks across the border are a common occurance, and Hamas is pretty good at firing rockets from next to nice civilian targets, so when the retaliatory missile comes in, it takes out a Mosque, or a school, or a hospital. No matter what Israel does, it's going to lose in some way. They are fighting people who don't play by the same rules that they do. |
Yes, I admit I was behind the times one these rockets
I realize now that as for Gaza I was still thinking along the lines of 2007. This is just more proof that Israel was not keeping up as it would have back in the 60s. Iron Dome now seems more like Iron Doom. I can see why Ahmadinejad says Israel is finished. If Israel can't fight its way out of these wet paper bags, how is it ever going to deal with Iran? This isn't the Israel that always stayed ahead of the curve. The youth in Israel are getting tired of all this. I still recall how Israeli tankers were shown by news crying when Israel's push into Lebanon discovered that their enemy had build vast complexes of underground bunkers that resembled the Japanese strongholds on Iwo Jima.
Israel doesn't seem to have its old flare for intel. |
^ Oh, Israel has. It is just not so easy to fight and win a house-to-house fighting in a civilian area, than to win a war against military forces on an open battlefield.
And you have to win this war in the media .. And b.t.w. the 'Stuka' was quite a good plane, for its time and purpose. Valentin Mikula's "Stuka" gives an excellent idea of plane and pilots. |
Catfish
Yeah, it was always one of my favorites to build models of - the Stuka. In films I always loved its siren, the Jericho-Trompete. It was such an IN YOUR FACE concept! It was like: 'The Stukas are over your head and diving down! What are you doing to do about it?'
You know back in the late 70s when so-called Vietnamese boat people were arriving in America, at my place of work at the time - a medical supplier - we had an old Vietnamese guy who admitted to me (after I became his friend) that he was from North Vietnam and he got going on during one lunch break about what the B52 attacks had been like in the north. He didn't say outright, but did imply that he had been somehow involved in anti-aircraft. The thing I will always remember was that he stated that every time a massive wave of B52s was coming on, that all the anti-aircraft guys would start crapping in their pants and had piss running down their legs before the 52s reached their position. We never used such numbers of B52s in our mid-east or Afghanistan wars - but of course our foes in those locations had a healthy respect for our big bombers. But the Vietnamese saw large formations of those machines over the years of the bombings. |
Gaza crisis: Israel ground invasion plan 'on hold'
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20404589 Note: Update record, 20 November 2012 Last updated at 11:58 GMT |
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I reckon Israel will move into Gaza by the weekend unless all rocket attacks cease and even then how long would a truce last for?
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It's a race against time for Israel, since the longer this goes on, the more the PR war turns against them. There might be one more big raid but I think that the ceasefire may come into effect for a few days, and it'll give Israel a chance to mark out more targets for the continuation of operations once the ceasefire is inevitably broken by one side or the other.
Israels situation is pretty dire now, as one person emailing the BBC from the US put it: Quote:
You couldn't pay me to be an Israeli leader right now. :yep: |
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Since the first call up of reservists MKs have been demanding an actual plan from the government, more importantly they are demanding an exit plan as well, they all know occupation doesn't work. |
They'd probably go for the rocket stockpiles they know about but can't get at because they're in places such as underground bunkers below schools etc.
Next possibly the workshops that produce them then finally, withdraw. The above should see a lull in the number of rocket attacks and when they eventually resume as no doubt they will then public opinion would or should be back on their side. Repeat, spin and wash etc. etc. |
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I don't see them having anyother choice....survival is key and they don't have all that many friends atm and those they do have aren't doing much 'publicly'.
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Maybe it is their only option, but sending forces across the border is also exactly what Hamas wants them to do. Then they can claim that Israel is violating the 2005 agreement and rally others in support of themselves. This is really a no-win for Israel.
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