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-   -   Three Israelis killed by Gaza rocket as violence escalates (https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=199837)

Oberon 11-20-12 01:00 AM

Good analysis by Stratfor, they're usually pretty good at putting the dots together. The Fajr-5 is quite large, but small enough to be able to be hid in buildings, or more likely, underground.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...GRAM_FINAL.JPG

There are TELs, but I imagine that most rockets are fired from improvised static locations.

To underline one of the reasons Israel is taking these new missiles more seriously, there is another picture of Hamas's missile history:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...s-2012-1-m.jpg

As you can see, they represent a big step up from the rockets that have been lobbed over the border up until now.
I wouldn't be surprised if this rocket has a lot to do with the indications that Israel is intending to go in with ground forces to root the stockpiles out.

The strikes, considering mission count to kill count, have been very surgical...however when the ground troops go in, it's going to likely get messy. The last time (2007-2008) had a range of nearly 1,500 fatalities, mostly Palestinian.

It's a Catch-22 situation, if Israel doesn't go in, then it's a long old air based slug with the political tide against it, there will be more pictures of dead children and more Fajr rockets for Iron Dome to practice with. If it does go in then it's going to be even more piles of dead children for CNN and more support for the Palestinians.
Hamas, on the other hand knows that Israel is coming, but hopes it can ensnare it in the streets of Gaza, this will end badly for Hamas but Hamas doesn't care because it will gain global support via the media.

For Israel, it depends on not having pictures of dead Israelis broadcast around the world, because if that happens then it has failed to protect its people, so that means a very one sided death count which makes for very good teatime broadcasts.

This conflict has been going on since at least October, but has only just started making headlines after the intensity ramped up. Rocket attacks across the border are a common occurance, and Hamas is pretty good at firing rockets from next to nice civilian targets, so when the retaliatory missile comes in, it takes out a Mosque, or a school, or a hospital.

No matter what Israel does, it's going to lose in some way. They are fighting people who don't play by the same rules that they do.

Red Brow 11-20-12 02:04 AM

Yes, I admit I was behind the times one these rockets
 
I realize now that as for Gaza I was still thinking along the lines of 2007. This is just more proof that Israel was not keeping up as it would have back in the 60s. Iron Dome now seems more like Iron Doom. I can see why Ahmadinejad says Israel is finished. If Israel can't fight its way out of these wet paper bags, how is it ever going to deal with Iran? This isn't the Israel that always stayed ahead of the curve. The youth in Israel are getting tired of all this. I still recall how Israeli tankers were shown by news crying when Israel's push into Lebanon discovered that their enemy had build vast complexes of underground bunkers that resembled the Japanese strongholds on Iwo Jima.

Israel doesn't seem to have its old flare for intel.

Catfish 11-20-12 04:58 AM

^ Oh, Israel has. It is just not so easy to fight and win a house-to-house fighting in a civilian area, than to win a war against military forces on an open battlefield.
And you have to win this war in the media ..

And b.t.w. the 'Stuka' was quite a good plane, for its time and purpose.
Valentin Mikula's "Stuka" gives an excellent idea of plane and pilots.

Red Brow 11-20-12 06:16 AM

Catfish
 
Yeah, it was always one of my favorites to build models of - the Stuka. In films I always loved its siren, the Jericho-Trompete. It was such an IN YOUR FACE concept! It was like: 'The Stukas are over your head and diving down! What are you doing to do about it?'

You know back in the late 70s when so-called Vietnamese boat people were arriving in America, at my place of work at the time - a medical supplier - we had an old Vietnamese guy who admitted to me (after I became his friend) that he was from North Vietnam and he got going on during one lunch break about what the B52 attacks had been like in the north. He didn't say outright, but did imply that he had been somehow involved in anti-aircraft. The thing I will always remember was that he stated that every time a massive wave of B52s was coming on, that all the anti-aircraft guys would start crapping in their pants and had piss running down their legs before the 52s reached their position.

We never used such numbers of B52s in our mid-east or Afghanistan wars - but of course our foes in those locations had a healthy respect for our big bombers. But the Vietnamese saw large formations of those machines over the years of the bombings.

Gerald 11-20-12 07:22 AM

Gaza crisis: Israel ground invasion plan 'on hold'
 
Quote:

Israel has put plans for a ground operation in Gaza "on hold" to give talks to secure a truce with Hamas militants a chance, officials say.

It is understood Israel has set a Thursday deadline for the Egypt-brokered talks to succeed.
It seems like an attack from the ground can come in days,:hmmm:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20404589

Note: Update record, 20 November 2012 Last updated at 11:58 GMT

Takeda Shingen 11-20-12 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oberon (Post 1962980)
It's a Catch-22 situation, if Israel doesn't go in, then it's a long old air based slug with the political tide against it, there will be more pictures of dead children and more Fajr rockets for Iron Dome to practice with. If it does go in then it's going to be even more piles of dead children for CNN and more support for the Palestinians.
Hamas, on the other hand knows that Israel is coming, but hopes it can ensnare it in the streets of Gaza, this will end badly for Hamas but Hamas doesn't care because it will gain global support via the media.

And that's just it. Hamas knows it cannot win the physical war. Rather, it looks to win the PR war. The real downside for Israel, and the way that that could lose is that Hamas will clearly take every collateral loss of life and parade it in front of the cameras for the entire world to see.

STEED 11-20-12 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oberon
It's a Catch-22 situation, if Israel doesn't go in, then it's a long old air based slug with the political tide against it, there will be more pictures of dead children and more Fajr rockets for Iron Dome to practice with. If it does go in then it's going to be even more piles of dead children for CNN and more support for the Palestinians.
Hamas, on the other hand knows that Israel is coming, but hopes it can ensnare it in the streets of Gaza, this will end badly for Hamas but Hamas doesn't care because it will gain global support via the media.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Takeda Shingen (Post 1963089)
And that's just it. Hamas knows it cannot win the physical war. Rather, it looks to win the PR war. The real downside for Israel, and the way that that could lose is that Hamas will clearly take every collateral loss of life and parade it in front of the cameras for the entire world to see.

Hamas is like the Hydra, cut one head off another two grow in its place. As TS has pointed out they are winning the PR War, more deaths on both sides the better. They as in opposition back then in 1948 had their chance when the State of Israel was founded, they lost and Israel did not have tanks back then. Israel is here to stay so Hamas and the rest should damn well live with it and move forward in a positive way and not what they are doing now.

Jimbuna 11-20-12 11:28 AM

I reckon Israel will move into Gaza by the weekend unless all rocket attacks cease and even then how long would a truce last for?

Oberon 11-20-12 12:41 PM

It's a race against time for Israel, since the longer this goes on, the more the PR war turns against them. There might be one more big raid but I think that the ceasefire may come into effect for a few days, and it'll give Israel a chance to mark out more targets for the continuation of operations once the ceasefire is inevitably broken by one side or the other.

Israels situation is pretty dire now, as one person emailing the BBC from the US put it:
Quote:

Israel must look for a long-term solution now. After the Arab Spring, they may not have many good friends in the region left. They risk coming under attack in the future. So a long-term solution is now vital for them.
Unfortunately for the most part, the only long term solution that many of Israels neighbours will accept is the total deconstruction of Israel. So, whatever Israel does now or in the future, it will be pyrrhic, they may achieve their goals but they will only isolate themselves further.
You couldn't pay me to be an Israeli leader right now. :yep:

Tribesman 11-20-12 12:47 PM

Quote:

I reckon Israel will move into Gaza by the weekend
But then what?
Since the first call up of reservists MKs have been demanding an actual plan from the government, more importantly they are demanding an exit plan as well, they all know occupation doesn't work.

Jimbuna 11-20-12 12:56 PM

They'd probably go for the rocket stockpiles they know about but can't get at because they're in places such as underground bunkers below schools etc.

Next possibly the workshops that produce them then finally, withdraw.

The above should see a lull in the number of rocket attacks and when they eventually resume as no doubt they will then public opinion would or should be back on their side.

Repeat, spin and wash etc. etc.

Tribesman 11-20-12 01:12 PM

Quote:

Repeat, spin and wash etc. etc.
The problem there is not only the very high cost of the repeats but also the increasingly severe impact on the economy. They have already pulled nearly 8 times as many people out of work this time as last time.

Jimbuna 11-20-12 01:26 PM

I don't see them having anyother choice....survival is key and they don't have all that many friends atm and those they do have aren't doing much 'publicly'.

Takeda Shingen 11-20-12 01:41 PM

Maybe it is their only option, but sending forces across the border is also exactly what Hamas wants them to do. Then they can claim that Israel is violating the 2005 agreement and rally others in support of themselves. This is really a no-win for Israel.

eddie 11-20-12 02:00 PM

Not very good PR for Hamas in this article.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...m_hp_ref=world


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