Navalny is viewed as a traitor I would expect, not as an enemy. But this is going into speculations into the state of the mind for Putin and other actors.

About charges - political motivation doesn’t mean that Navalny did not participate in such activities, only that the law is selectively applied.

Is that bad? Sure.
Does this mean that Navalny is innocent and worthy of support by a classical liberal such I? Not really.

Hence why I get tired of such people get white washed and sanctified. In the end Navalny is not going to be better for Russia, but then I can’t say who will be and I am against revolutions in all forms and for a steady, peaceful, evolution and development.

As to poisonings - yes, this is an established narrative and, ironically, people who actually died to Novichoks (like 1990s bankers) are not a part of it. Ironic, plus the British proximity to all of the cases in it.

The phone call (same as the bellingcat report) was an element of political theatre amplified by media.

I wish there was a better response to this, but historically we have been bad at this, for example back in the Korean airliner times Soviets did not respond to US publishing a doctored voice comms tape despite knowing its nature.

:hmmm: ok.
Who do you think would be better for Russia than Navalny, or Putin?

Is that the time your Air Force brutally murdered an entire jumbo jet full of civilians then tried to weasel out of responsibility for it?

At the moment my preferred option is gradual transition post 2024 to a third person. Who that person would be is not yet clear.

I am familiar with the US narrative, yes., but hey, who cares about the greater context and say the US Aegis crew few years later did nothing wrong ;).

Yeah I'm quite aware of using deflection as a tactic for diverting attention from ones own crimes. ;)

However, even if the two incidents were comparable, which they really aren't, that has absolutely nothing to do with your country knowingly destroying a civilian airliner. That stands on it's very own.

FWIW in the Vincennes incident our gunners incorrectly identified and reacted to what they believed was an imminent threat, whereas your pilots knew what they were shooting at and did it anyways because their government was as paranoid as a Democrat member of congress standing next to a Republican with a suspicious bulge on their hip.

The formal claims about Nawalny and the reason for his re-arrest, are just this: formal. If it wpould not be these reaosns, than some othe rreaosns woukd have been found. Of course he is the arch enemy of Putin and Putin tries to get rid of the problem in any way necessary. Thats why the police is so ultra-brutal against the demonstrators: fix the danger while it still is small.

The US is not in a moral position to morally lecture Russia for that. And the EU is in an indifferent position anyway, being ridiculous in any attempt to moralise. Both he American and European moral credibility are corrupted, for different reasons. The US acted in similiar ways regarding Assange: giving formal foul excuses for persecuting him, constructing a sexual offence case where there most likely is none, and never has been, the whole story has always stunko rotten form beginning on, th Swedish women starting it beign dubious at best. Formalities gave the operation to lock down and get hand on Assange an apparent legal, justified claim. But it never was that, it was about getting him into American arrest, and about revenge, and turning him into an intimidating example to scare others following him.

Putin is not Mr Kind Guy, nor will he ever win a price for fairness and sportsmanship, he does what he sees necessary to secure his power. His recent calculations however maybe are not as sdharpo and precise anymore as they once have been. He overstepped the limit with his hjabit to notoriously poison critics and unwanted people. He overestuimated his cards, maybe.

Maybe he becomes another old man who misses the right point in his life to leave it all behind, and live unknown, but safe until a natural death. Or he does what he does becasue that is the only way to become old and one day die a natural death, I dont know. But he is turning old.

And I think that mid and late Putin is a result of Western politics on Russia 20, 25 years ago, yes. Putin was always KGB, but once held a more Europe-oriented, positive, constructive attitude towards the West. I recall the times when even in Washington some saw in him someone like a new Peter the Great, and her ein Germany anyway. That time did not last for long, however. Its just that he saw the West, namely the US and NATO, betraying Russia, and I agree with that Russian perception. He also had to keep the organised crime and the oligarchs in check that under Yeltzin really where about taking over the state completely.

There is a tendency in the West to overlook faults and dark spots in the biographies of people opposing the Russian state and Putin. True for some oligarchs in the past Putin cracked down on, whom always were seen as innocent victims only with their shady sides being ignored, and I red rumours at least about Nawalny not being that harmless a guy, too, but a radical nationalist. He would not be the first saint coming to power and then revealing himself as a demon instead.

I do not defend Putin, nor his ways, I simply try to cold-bloodedly explain his actions by the needs he faces, and the motive of his to save himself and to protect - an autocratic, Putinesque - Russia. It makes no sense to want to define Russia'S interests from a Western view. One needs to look at it from a Russian view, only then you can see the predictability in it, and only then you can form a realistic policy towards it. Neither naive optimism nor demonising nihilism helps in this.

I think however that Putin sooner or later enters his end game now. He does not become younger. But who wants to predict who comes after him? And whether that somebody will be better or worse - and from what perspective? Western priority must be the stability of the state, and the safety of the nuclear and biological weapons, and the prevention of another nuclear scientists drain like after the collapse of the USSR. These and nothign else are the West'S essential interests. Evertyhign else beyond that is sentimental and luxurious, is bonus. Maybe not from the Russian people's perspective. But from ours. Leave Russia to the Russians - as long as it is not at our cost. Especially the EU is well-advised with that motto. It has demonstrated its impotence quite often now in the recent decade and imminent present. it must not bite off once again more than it can chew and make a joke of itself. Always trying to lift more than one can bear only ruins the intervertebral discs.

P.S. There is somethign about Navalny that has me being on my guard against him. I do not trust him more than I would trust Putin. Not at all, that is. He does not show the West all that he is, I have the feeling.
__________________

A bit of news and opinion who Navalny is.
https://thegrayzone.com/2021/01/28/a...sition-figure/
Then the idea that liberty, freedom, democracy in Russia is in jeopardy. Well I just don't see it if sites like OVDInfo is still allowed. This site kinda reminds me of the U.S. based Democracy Now and Amnesty International all wrapped into one.

https://ovdinfo.org/

Russia is a strange country where one of the platforms for the opposition (Echo of Moscow radio station) is owned by Gazprom subsidiery - Gazprom media.


But if you think of it in terms of a pseudo-feudal system it can make sense, a vassal of your vassal is not you vassal, thus people couple of ranks below can be doing harmful things to people couple of ranks above.

This is how some hackers with FSB backing where hacking Medvedev's accounts and making him look bad, despite their handlers being under him in the chain of command so to speak.




Thanks to sticking to the standard US narrative, which is both false in claiming that the pilot knew it was the airliner and in setting one rule set for US and the other for USSR (the rules for thee, not the rules for me aka American exceptionalism).



The Korean airliner shot down happened against a background of a maximum pressure campaign by US, which used civilian airliners as cover both literally (by flying in close proximity to) and figuratively (by adopting the signature of) airliners.
This resulted in the air defence crews, which were being exhausted-out but those practice, making the error.

Alexei Navalny, leading Putin critic, sentenced to nearly 3 years in jail
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/a...ested-n1256440

As screwed up as Russia's political system is, the US is just as screwed up, maybe worse, just in a whole different way.

They poison him, he lies in a hospital abroad almost dying, and then they complain he did not report back :haha:

^ Absolutely ridiculous. As state of lawlessness, they do not even pretend to use any reasonable or legal procedures :nope:

Ironically keeping him secure under guard is the appropriate response if the incident was not caused by the senior political leadership.


As otherwise a third party may re-attempt. And Navalny becomming a martyr is not in elite's interests right now, just keeping him out of sight and out of mind.

^ "... if the incident was not caused by the senior political leadership..."
who pretends it was not? The senior political leadership? :yep:

A third party could have been responsible, sure. Or maybe extraterrestrials?
"Navalny becoming a martyr is not in the elite's interest", this is of course true. How very unfortunate for them :03:

My complain in this Navalny story remains the same: when a simple (non-media) person breakes the rules of conditional detention only one time - there's 90% that he goes to jail immediately. Why Navalny was allowed to break those rules so many times all these years and was finaly put to jail only now using a very formal occasion ? He was allowed to provide non-approved meetings, tens times been detained then freed ( while according to Russian laws he should have been put to jail immediately after administrative detainment since it breaks rules of conditional detention most severly)? More to say - after beeing magically freed after these detainments he somehow was allowed to spend his vacations on expensive resorts abroad - being there he missed his scheduled check-ups in FSIN - which is also a severe breakage of rules of conditional detention. So for six years he was allowed to do everything he wanted with Russian laws and only now he is put to jail... To me it's all about that "some animals are more equal than the others" thing. Wonder who is really standing behind this figure in our "hights". As an "opposition" he is very so-so since he
a) doesn't show any programme and only tells that "those guys are wrong and I'm a D'Artagnan" and "hey, schoolchildren - those old men have taken everything that's in fact yours" - no suggestions how to improve economy or social sphere or else. Argument that "He is not allowed to show his programme" - can be rejected since his platform is an internet mainly - he adresses to the youth and they do not watch TV - only youtube where everyone can see his videos in which he never tells what to do to improve life other than blame current powers in all sins and calls for illegal anti-social actions.
b) even within his target audience he cannot gather enough followers to influence authorities to change their decisions - latest "protests" weren't any multiple (I don't know what pictures were translated to Western TV but in reality it was nowhere near close to even 2011/2012 years). Where are your millions, Лёша ?

Just like that :-)

If he is just a wannabe revoluzzer, why does the FSB try to kill him then.
"Hunting the hunters"

^ "Wehret den Anfängen." Thats why.

How not to help the Russian opposition.
https://irrussianality.wordpress.com...an-opposition/


“Two narratives are currently competing for attention. The first is that Navalny is the innocent victim of a brutal murder attempt. The second is that Navalny is an agent of foreign powers (The two aren’t necessarily incompatible).”


I'll add that I have yet to see independent verifiable proof of a poisoning. Anyone seen the Skirpals lately?

On 16 February 2019, The Sunday Times reported, without identified sources, that Sergei Skripal "has suffered a deterioration in his health and is being treated by doctors". On 7 June 2020, The Sunday Times reported that Sergei and his daughter have been settled in New Zealand under new identities.

About Navalny - I said my piece.
Personally I am getting tired about every online resource that I frequent bombarding me about the man.



https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/cont...r-competition/
An interesting paper on IR topics.


p.s. full text below:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-c..._210127_FV.pdf

I would highly recommend it, esp for US users.

"Russian doctor who treated Navalny after poisoning has died"

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/04/e...ntl/index.html

Purely aacidental of course.. Honi soit qui mal y pense :hmmm: