What if N-Germany had discovered Enigma had been cracked?

[Sixpack]

early on ofcourse.... ;)

Would the A-Bomb have been dropped on Europe's continent first ? Berlin to more exact.

[scandium]

Edit: I'd misread the title as "what if enigma hadn't been cracked" though that would have been even more dire for Britain since Germany could then feed them false intel, though the rest of my post applies in either case.


Enigma was cracked long before Pearl Harbour and the Americans became involved. In fact, ironically, for some months before Germany declared war on the US, the US had - despite its professed "neutral" position, had begun escorting allied shipping further and further into the Atlantic while extending a US "security zone" that went far beyond its territorial waters. The irony is that Churchill was able to pursuade Roosevelt to become more actively involved (but short of declaring war) based on intel that Hitler sought to avoid war with America at all costs. And that Intel came from a decoded enigma cipher.

The result was that America for several months, reassured by the knowledge that Hitler wanted no war with the US, became increasingly belligerent while clinging to a thinly disguised viel of neutrality. The belligerence went to the point of chasing down and attacking with depth charges at least one U-boat discovered in international waters near a convoy it was escorting within its "security zone".

So the more likely sceneraio is that, had enigma not been cracked Roosevelt would not have known that Germany wanted to avoid war with the US at all cost and would likely have displayed the same reluctance to become involved in a "European affair" that Americans wanted no part of that he'd displayed up until late in '41.

1941 was also when the Battle of the Atlantic was at its peak and Britain was most in danger of losing it. What helped turn the tide was intel on the position of German U-boats gained from Enigma and America's increasing involvement, which again the deciphered Enigma codes played a part in.

Without the break from Enigma being cracked its possible that America would have maintained the same firmly neutral position in '41 it had displayed up until then; that German convoy attacks would have been more successful while attrition from u-boat losses would have been lower and that Britain, being effectively cut off from needed goods, resources, and lines of communication with its colonies, and without US intervention, would have surrendered (probably conditionally which Germany would likely have accepted, being bogged down on the Eastern front at the same time).

Then with the European war decided, fascism on the rise, Roosevelt would have had 3 choices: cast his lot in with the Communists to try, finally, to put Hitler in check; Join the Axis in its fight against Communism; or lastly, simply adopt an isolationist stance and maintain the neutrality it had proclaimed all along. I think the last most likely.

[Sixpack]

Found this morning with google. I was unaware of this BBC series....really

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/history/whatif/what_if.shtml

Fot those who have never seen an Enigma machine b4 ;)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/history/whatif/images/whatif_enigma.jpg

[STEED]

There was a BBC series done way back in the 1970’s called The Secret War it was all about what went on in the backrooms, Churchill called it the wizard war one of the programmes was all about the Enigma Machine. I do believe this series is on sale on DVD well worth buying it was a seven part series, other episodes the battle of the beams, radar and the U-Boat War.

[Sixpack]

Sounds great :up:

Somebody here got it on DL-able avi's ?

[STEED]

Found the book -

The Secret War
Brian Johnson
Paperback - Leo Cooper Ltd (Oct 2004) - 244 Pages - ISBN 1844151026

[STEED]

:damn: I just been checking up on the TV Series it's Currently Unavailable :down: brand new. I bought many years ago on VHS I was thinking to get them on DVD this year what a blow :cry: you never know it may come out again. The book is worth buying that will give you an idea what the series was about Sixpack. Hope you have better luck. :yep:

[kiwi_2005]

If Germany had found out there enigma had been cracked earlier on, maybe it would of made the XXI top prority and of course they would of had to change there messaging code.

More like what would had happen if the XXI was fully in service from 1940 onwards replacing the VII U boats. The battle of Atlantic would of been won :hmm:

[Abraham]

... Without the break from Enigma being cracked its possible that America would have maintained the same firmly neutral position in '41 it had displayed up until then; that German convoy attacks would have been more successful while attrition from u-boat losses would have been lower and that Britain, being effectively cut off from needed goods, resources, and lines of communication with its colonies, and without US intervention, would have surrendered (probably conditionally which Germany would likely have accepted, being bogged down on the Eastern front at the same time).

Then with the European war decided, fascism on the rise, Roosevelt would have had 3 choices: cast his lot in with the Communists to try, finally, to put Hitler in check; Join the Axis in its fight against Communism; or lastly, simply adopt an isolationist stance and maintain the neutrality it had proclaimed all along. I think the last most likely.
Good analisys. Under Roosevelt America would probably return to isolationism. However it is far from sure that som form of fascism would not have infected the American society - as it did with many societies in Europe. In the elections of 1944 Roosevelt might well have been beaten and a more conservative (if not fascist) President might have been elected, who would decide to team up with Germany.
For some fascinating "What if"-reading on this subject: "The Plot Against America" by Philip Roth, 2004.

[scandium]

Under Roosevelt America would probably return to isolationism. However it is far from sure that som form of fascism would not have infected the American society - as it did with many societies in Europe. In the elections of 1944 Roosevelt might well have been beaten and a more conservative (if not fascist) President might have been elected, who would decide to team up with Germany.
For some fascinating "What if"-reading on this subject: "The Plot Against America" by Philip Roth, 2004.

Yeah that's the conclusion I draw as well, as even before the US went to war there were already pockets of support for Hitler and fascism in the US.

A triumphant Hitler, having brought Germany from the defeat and hopelessness following the first WW only a generation before, to Supreme Ruler of all of Europe would have meant a continued blind eye to what was going on behind the scenes (enforced through control of the media and the point of a gun), enhanced his "cult of personality", and legitimized National Socialism. And it would have then only been a matter of time before an American contemporary adopted the same platform, embraced Germany as a strong ally and trading partner, and taken an election either through vote, revolt, or by theft.

Interesting book you mentioned, I checked it out on Amazon and added it to my "Wishlist" for my next order.

[STEED]

If Germany had found out there enigma had been cracked earlier on

They nearly did after the Battle of Crete 1941, they found evidence from some paper work but lucky for us it was dismissed. Crete was a very tricky one for us, we could have defeated the German invasion; as we knew all the details, the fear was if we did defeated them outright, that could have tipped off the Germans that we cracked the Enigma code.

[Mike 'Red Ocktober' Hense]

the TypeXXI, while being a revolution in sub design, would not have made much difference in the atlantic war... like all so called super weapons, if they are not part of an effective deployment system, they would've been a spectacular misuse and waste of great technology...

and, while cracking the enigma code was definitely a big plus... the cards were slowly (maybe not so slowly) being stacked up against the nazi regime's war effort with advances in sonar and radar... as well as the attacks on the logistics centers required to support such a weapons system...

plus, when japan entered the war, the us was committed anyways...

also, the us wasn't about to let the brit islands fall, nor were they gonna sit back and let the soviets take over spoils in asia or europe... we were in it... like it or not...

cracking the enigma wasn't that significant of an event (not to downplay it though) as to change world history to the extent suggested... neither was the deployment of the XXI...

--Mike

[scandium]

the TypeXXI, while being a revolution in sub design, would not have made much difference in the atlantic war... like all so called super weapons, if they are not part of an effective deployment system, they would've been a spectacular misuse and waste of great technology...

and, while cracking the enigma code was definitely a big plus... the cards were slowly (maybe not so slowly) being stacked up against the nazi regime's war effort with advances in sonar and radar... as well as the attacks on the logistics centers required to support such a weapons system...

plus, when japan entered the war, the us was committed anyways...

also, the us wasn't about to let the brit islands fall, nor were they gonna sit back and let the soviets take over spoils in asia or europe... we were in it... like it or not...

cracking the enigma wasn't that significant of an event (not to downplay it though) as to change world history to the extent suggested... neither was the deployment of the XXI...

--Mike

Agree that the type XXI was too little, too late. Though it wasn't a new concept when it was finally designed and built, but prior to radar being developed and enigma being cracked there was no reason for building it as the Germans' surface based wolfpack attacks were working. The problem was they didn't have enough u-boats to cover the Atlantic (let alone the other theatres they were later called on to operate in, like the Med or the Arctic Ocean). Doenitz had wanted 300 u-boats by the outbreak of war - he had 58; at the peak of the Battle of Atlantic, when the tide was almost turned, he had about 100 total. If he had his 300 U-boats Britain would have had its life strangled out of it (that life being the import of goods & resources it needed not just for the war machine, but for day-to-day life) while Roosevelt was still sniffing the wind to see which way it was blowing both at home and abroad. This is because Britain had greatly underestimated the value of the u-boat and the impact it would have for three reasons:

1. They had, at the time, the world's best Navy which they placed too much faith in;

2. They had successfully countered the U-boat threat in the first World War by implementing the convoy tactic and did not forsee that u-boats, operating in wolfpacks, could beat numbers through numbers (they couldn't forsee it because these wolfpack tactics had never been used before);

3. Lastly they underestimated the U-boat threat because of their possession of the ASDIC (which the Germans did not have) which they believed effectively rendered the submarine threat obsolete (and for proof of that one need only look at the submarine treaty of 1935 in which they again allowed Germany to build U-boats, which they'd previously been forbidden to build since the end of WWI, and not just build them but build a disproportionate number of them versus the other naval units that treaty authorized (which was 35% of Britain's tonnage for all ship types except U-boats, which Britain permitted 45% of).

Germany never came close to building even the 45% of Britain's submarine tonnage, as authorized by treaty, in the years leading up to the war even when it became inevitable. Had they had their 300 U-boats, or had they known Enigma had been comprised then things may have very well gone differently.

Recall that it wasn't until America was attacked first by Japan, then had Germany declare war on her, that she finally shrugged off her cloak of neutrality and really got involved in it (over two years after the declaration of war on Germany by France, Britain, and a half a dozen or so other Commonwealth countries).

This is too long a time period of maintaining neutrality, after so many others had already cast their lot in, to take it for granted in hindsight that the US "wasn't about to let the brit islands fall". I mean if that were the case, why wait two years?

[TteFAboB]

There were nine months of lend-lease before the official American entrance into the war, there was also the transfer of 50 DD's that could at least be used as cannon-fodder. I believe if the US was willing to let the Brits fall, Roosevelt would have kept his money and production to himself and wish the Brits good-luck, afterall, he could even make profits if he signed a deal with Hitler, for example, to sell aviation fuel or more bluntly Oil, while there was no money to gain with the lend-lease, not directly on the short-term, that is.

Another thing to consider, if Hitler had built 300 U-boats and even if the British didn't bothered to build anything to counter that believing in their superiority, it would still affect Hitler's resources and he would field less Panzers and Messerschmits. Would he still have enough to take down Poland and France? While the Polish campaign was a remarkable blitzkrieg, I have my doubts if a weaker German Army and Airforce would manage to win the French blitzkrieg, Hitler already had his "lucky" moments in the real campaign. A better opportunity of victory would happen if the Allies took the 300 U-boat threat seriously and cut funds from the Army and Airforce to invest in the Navy, then even a weaker German Army could've steamrolled through France, from then it would depend on how the British naval investments would pay off against the 300 U-boats.