What would the World be like without oil dependence?

[Deathblow]

If the world was not as dependent on Middle Eastern oil, through say fusion power, what would be the effect on world and/or middle east peace and stability?

One could say that the countries of the world would be less interested in Middle East politics and less inclined to interfere in power stuggles, not having as vested a interest in the politics of the region. This would downgrade the nature of the conflicts to less of a world stage to more regional squabbling so the effect on the world would be more stability...

Or one could say that the economic wealth that these nations possess (like Saudi Arabi, Kuwait, Iran) is one of the factors that keep theses nations from all out war. As long as the government banks are full, the leaders well fed, and the populations banking off oil money then people have a reason not to act on their hate (even more than they do already).... Take this economic wealth away and the region just got a whole lot angrier and dishelved (even more than it is already). Genocide is iminent.... and the world would be pulled into the battle.

Or perhaps none of the above... the same intensity of conflicts would result without any real change to world stability. Just fighting over something else instead of oil.

[TteFAboB]

I could care less, I wish good luck to the people of those countries who depends entirely and solely on Oil.

[Deathblow]

Well, the fact that oil is there is what brings the entire world to arms when anything happens in that region.

Otherwise, how would be much different than Rawanda ( atroicities performed in the name of religion also completely ignored since no ones economy depends on the region.)

The oil is the reason that everyone really cares imho.

[CCIP]

They'll find something else to depend on. Look at the drugs industry. Look at the Eurofighter thread. :roll:

[TteFAboB]

Societies outside of the Middle East have changed, time and again, on some cases radically, and also in rather short periods of time.

Been there done that: From Oil to Coal to Oil to Ethanol to Gas to, this time, national Oil.

They want to sell me Oil, good for them, even though I don't need their's anymore, they run out of Oil, bad for them, and when they run out, things will change again, maybe radically, maybe in a short period of time, but life will go on, mankind will have to learn to live without Middle Eastern Oil for better or for worse, it may hurt, it may be a disaster, but it will be certainly worse for the Middle East, over there they depend on it and haven't endured as many changes in a relatively longer period of time, if the system that supports law and order suddenly gets cut, I can only wish them good luck.

Oil is a thing of the past, I'm not careless, I simply care more about the future, I'm more interested to know who will succeed in creating the world's first fusion reactor and who's gonna mine the Moon, if the Middle East had cared more about the future in the past, perhaps today they wouldn't lag behind Israel, an infant modern nation, in the scientifical field, and maybe they would present the world with the first fusion reactor.

[CB..]

problem is not wether the world will be more stable with or without oil dependance (no matter which countries have the stuff)

it's what the heck happens as we make the transition--

[Takeda Shingen]

The world would remain unchanged, as people would simply find a different reason for killing each other.

[Type941]

same sh*t. :shifty:

[Marhkimov]

The world would remain unchanged, as people would simply find a different reason for killing each other.
same sh*t. :shifty:

Yep, 3000 years of warfare, conflict, and killing... I doubt we will make any significant improvements within the next 100 years or so.

[M.Mira]

The less dependent on Middle East oil, the less dependent on instable, corrupt or fanatic regimes.
There would still be problems, but they couls be solved in a more rational way...
It would for instance be easier for the world to unite against the Iran nuclear weapons program, or against Muslim extremism in Saudi Arabia.

[Kapitan]

the same although canada hsa got this surface oi9l site which is said to hold more oil than all the arab states put together so the TV said

[Pigfish]

the same although canada hsa got this surface oi9l site which is said to hold more oil than all the arab states put together so the TV said

Its called the Athabasca tar sands. They are located in the NE of my home Provence of Alberta. :up:

A quick search/find so I don't have to explain: http://www.energy.gov.ab.ca/89.asp

I cannot possibly put into words the boom that is going on up here in the last 2-3 years cuz of oil and gas and the present world political situation. I work first hand in the industry.

My southern neighbors have a insatiable appetite that will never be appeased and there is now talk of major pipelines heading to the west Coast. (Prince Rupert B.C.) To help supply Asia's thirst.

Many big ones planned going south too. Not just the one from Alaska I see on CNN. :rotfl:

I really dont think most the free world knows how much fuel oil reserves we have and the extent of activity going on up here.

No shortage of work in Alberta.

[Abraham]

Personally, I wish that I could witness the last drip of oil being pumped out of the Arabian Desert. Then the Arab/Muslim political leaders would really learn what it takes to build a coherent stable society instead of enriching themselves and their families and corrupting their so called "nations", which in most cases are nothing more than fiefdoms with artificial borders, drawn by Colonial Powers and inhabitated by local tribes.

I think oil has been more a curse than a blessing for the average Arab, not taking into the equation of course the ruling olichargies with their foreign bank accounts and their regular visits to high class brothels and casino's.

And it would indeed be much easier to fight Arab/Muslim terrorism, which has been (or still is) secretly supported by those same corrupt plutocrats in order to keep the average Arab/Muslim distracted from his/her real problems and challenges, i.e. to build a modern democratic society and participate in the world community.

But then, builing takes a lot more than destroying...

[Type941]

Alright Pigfish, I'm moving to Canada. :up: :hmm:

[Deathblow]

Yep, 3000 years of warfare, conflict, and killing... I doubt we will make any significant improvements within the next 100 years or so.

Yeah the conflicts will continue, but I guess the real question is whether or not the rest of the world would have to be drawn into the conflicts like they are now.

I really dont think most the free world knows how much fuel oil reserves we have and the extent of activity going on up here.

Sweet. Go Canada! Learn something new every day. :up: :know:

[CB..]

let's not forget allso Gas supplies---especailly in light of Russias' stance on gas prices et al--

here's a very short section of an article in the finantail times (possibly out of context of course)

//////////
An air of unreality hung over events as Russian national television suspended normal programming on New Year’s day to show live pictures of technicians turning down the flow of natural gas to Ukraine at a compressor station near the Russian border.

Few believed Russia would carry out its threat, on the day it assumed the rotating presidency of the Group of Eight industrialised nations with a pledge to make “energy security” a key theme. The Russia-Ukraine gas trading relationship is, after all, the second largest in the world after Canada-US.

//////////////////


i just love that phrase--"energy security"----
sometimes it doesn't take bombs to get back to the stone age--

[tycho102]

If the world was not as dependent on Middle Eastern oil, through say fusion power, what would be the effect on world and/or middle east peace and stability?

We don't NEED "fusion power".

What we do need is breeder reactors. Intead of using a core of enriched U-325 uranium, and then disposing of the entire thing, we need to re-process it. We need to extract the iodine and the cesium for medical diagnostics. We need to extract the U-238 and U-235 and Pu-239 and Pu-240 and Pu-241 and Pu-242 and Thorium and Amercium -- to be used in another reactor's core.

That is the problem with fission. We have enough uranium to last for thousands of years of power production. But everyone (the United States, Europe, Japan, Israel, and recently, Britain, France, and Germany) is worried about nuclear proliferation. They are worried about Iran and North Korea being able to buy or otherwise amalgomate small amount of fissionable material, in order to construct a nuclear weapon.

Right now, oil is just entirely too cheap for anyone to want a solution. Wait until it climbs on up to $100 per barrel of sour crude, and then we'll see some action. The environmentalist protesters will be assaulted by thousands of anti-protesters (working class blue-collar people), and the Governator will be required to call out the nation guard to restore order in every major city in California. The noisy environmentalists, who oppose every single last kind of power production in the current technological realm of science (wind, land-solar, orbital-solar, geothermal, tidal, nuclear, coal, gas, biodiesel), in order to either oppose American capitalism in general, or just to satify some kind of demented psychosis of their own creation, will be suppressed by general society.

At $25, no one cared. At $60, we start talking about it. At $100, you're going to see middle-class people demanding it across the entire world. The oil companies aren't going to go out of business, because we'll still have dozens of refineries producing synthetic oil, tar, plastic-base, coke (the black powder kind, not the drink), and the myriad of other things that only a petroleum engineer knows. The oil companies are just going to change their investments. Energy is energy, and everything is just energy to them. The old generation from the 50's and 60's have a really tough time giving up on petroleum exploration and the system of bribery that goes along with land-men and drilling rights. I can't blame them, because as people get older, they become risk-adverse.




Breeder reactors and core reprocessing. That is the current day, realistic, pragmatic solution. Throw hydrogen in as the energy storage medium, hydrogen-powered vehicles, and a super-conductive electrical transmission grid (the only technological advancement which is currently un-available). If we had every state in America with it's own sulf-sufficient fuel cycle (not including "permanent" storage for the high-level radionucleotides which absolutely cannot be used any other way, which is suprisingly very little), including breeder-reactors, depletion reactors, and re-processing facilities, we could be completely energy independent.

And the oil companies would still exist, and they'd be just as big as they are right now. They'd just be invested in a new system. They'd still be making and drilling for oil. They'd be reprocessing a lot of used oil, too.

[Hitman]

Well, two important topics in here :)

1.- The Middle East & Oil: Yes, the ME is nowadays more or less important because of oil, but historically it has been a source of trouble because of many other reasons. If anyone still believes here that the Crusades were done with the purpose of "liberating" Jerusalem, then let me remind you that the area was right in the path of the most important commercial route of the ancient times, linking Asia & Europe (Remember Marco Polo?) :roll: Then some centuries after that the Suez channel and surrounding areas became a matter of national security for the brits, as the wealth flowing from India went nearby....and now it's oil :huh:

No, there will not be any difference for ME conflict when oil runs out. There will sure be another reason to keep fighting over there, be sure...

2.- The end of the oil era: I already opened a topic here some time ago about "Peak Oil"...we are facing serious trouble in the next years, and sure as hell there will be conflicts and violence will raise. No this will not be the end of human beings, and there are alternatives (Coal, Tar Sands, Nuclear...) but it is sure that there will be a heavy crisis that forces adaptment

problem is not wether the world will be more stable with or without oil dependance (no matter which countries have the stuff)

it's what the heck happens as we make the transition--


You did hit the nail again Chris :up: While Tar Sands, nuclear reactors, etc. are developed enough to keep the "sustained growth into infinite" our system needs, there will be a BIG crisis, probably as bad as the one in 1929. Sure it will not be the end, and sure we will sooner or later restart a period of wellfare when solutions are found (6000 million people thinking about how to solve a problem is a good guarantee that someone will come up with a good idea :lol: ), but you can bet you neck in that a BIG crisis will come in the next 10 years :hulk:

I would like to quote something I readed in a "Peak Oil" web some time ago: "Predictions about the future of humankind can be divided in two classes: Those who see a future like Starwars, or those who see a future like Mad Max the Road Warrior"

:hmm:

[Wim Libaers]

I would like to quote something I readed in a "Peak Oil" web some time ago: "Predictions about the future of humankind can be divided in two classes: Those who see a future like Starwars, or those who see a future like Mad Max the Road Warrior"

:hmm:

Basically, the only thing they disagree about is how advanced the methods for fighting wars will be ;)


Agreed about the oil issue. We won't see the end of oil soon, and actually I don't expect anyone will see it for thousands of years. But the end of cheap oil... Really soon now.

[CB..]

You did hit the nail again Chris :up: While Tar Sands, nuclear reactors, etc. are developed enough to keep the "sustained growth into infinite" our system needs, there will be a BIG crisis, probably as bad as the one in 1929. Sure it will not be the end, and sure we will sooner or later restart a period of wellfare when solutions are found (6000 million people thinking about how to solve a problem is a good guarantee that someone will come up with a good idea :lol: ), but you can bet you neck in that a BIG crisis will come in the next 10 years :hulk:

I would like to quote something I readed in a "Peak Oil" web some time ago: "Predictions about the future of humankind can be divided in two classes: Those who see a future like Starwars, or those who see a future like Mad Max the Road Warrior"

:hmm:

Cheers HM! :yep:
when politicains start using terms like "energy security" and keeping a straight face then we know were in for at least some Mad Max type scenarios (in fact we know were already there)--if and when we get a new power source for reliable personal transport -electricity generation etc etc etc---we'll probably have a very long period of dual culture power generation -as those countrys un able to afford high tech power generation continue to rely on older power sources including oil--in fact this is probably going to be one of the major sources of contention in the long run---why should one country pay for highly expensive modern power sources -re-tool their factorys - rationalise/close down their oil industrys and infrastructure and re-invest in new technology (an absolutely massive almost inconcievable shift) whilst another poorer country continues to rely on oil---knowing that in fact if the richer countrys convert to new technology- that will free up huge amounts of oil for use by the less develoed countrys heavy industry transport plastic etc etc -- so spend insane amounts of money to fund new developments and at the same time give access to the remaining oil stock to your competetors and any one else who decides to pass the buck--fewer countrys using oil---stocks last longer--bit of a finnicky situation--

"energy security"--- Mad Max is here he may be wearing a suit and pretending to be a buisnessman but here's here allright! :up: :hmm:

bleed in the developing worlds rapid industrialisation and increasing dependance on coal and oil--reluctance of the major powers to encourage nuclear research in these countrys--the need to address climate changes and pollution controls--the manufacture of cheap goods in these countrys--
and the whole kaboodle appears to turning into the same problem--

sure hope they know what they're doing up there 'cos it looks like a corker from down here lol

[micky1up]

i dont think we would ever have known the answer because everytime a new way of moving cars and trucks without oil the oil companies buy it and bury it

[Abraham]

This thread-subject got in my opinion actualised when Gazprom (Russia, Putin) closed the natural gas deliveries to the UkraÏne for obvious political reasons and made Western Europepainfully aware that it depends for a large part on energy sources that may be manipulated for political reasons; making stability in the Middle East an even greater necessity...