East to west russian deployment

[fithah4]

4 Russian warships Sailed through Japan’s Tsugaru strait to International Waters

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10623699/Japan-spots-four-Russian-warships-carrying-combat-vehicles-heading-Ukraine.html

Where to from here?

1) Northeast Passage during mid-winter?
https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-planning-year-round-shipping-northern-sea-route-2022-or-2023

2) The Suez Canal if still open to Russian warships?
3) Around Africa to the Strait of Gibraltar , if not closed by NATO?
4) Enter North Sea via English Channel ?
5) Longest route not logistical.....or maybe blocked also?
Entering North Sea to make way around Denmark heading towards Baltic Sea

:k_confused:

[mapuc]

Going to be interesting to follow this group of ships to see where they are heading. Most likely it is Ukraine or Crimea-Then to be used in the war.

I say if they are heading for Ukraine we merge this thread with mine
Ukraine once again.

Markus

[fithah4]

Egyptian stance on Russia
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/cairos-opportunity-policy-change-war-ukraine

The Russian war on Ukraine poses challenges for Egypt's economic interests—but Egypt should look to its Western partners to ameliorate these impacts.

On March 1, the United States Embassy in Cairo website published a statement issued by the Group of Seven (G7) ambassadors in Cairo regarding Russian aggression against Ukraine. The statement—titled “G7 Ambassadors: We Must Stand with Ukraine”

The next day,( March 2nd ) in an emergency session of the UN General Assembly held for the first time in 40 years, Egypt voted in favor of the UN resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The vote is a clear first sign from Egypt that it got the message sent by the G7 ambassadors.

Summary of article:
Speaking out against Russian aggression against Ukraine will likely create short-term challenges for Egypt. Yet the G7 statement must be seen as an opportunity for Egypt to correct its course regarding Russia and its relations with the West. Cairo must stop adopting vague and anemic stances on Russian aggression against Ukraine, or else understand that its risks losing Western support on more vital economic and political issues.

[fithah4]

Travel time from Hakodate, Japan to Hurghada , Egypt southern Suez Canal is about 3 weeks by normal freight transportation.

So with that will be looking at time line of 15+ days from now for more news.

[Aktungbby]

4 Russian warships Sailed through Japan’s Tsugaru strait to International Waters

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10623699/Japan-spots-four-Russian-warships-carrying-combat-vehicles-heading-Ukraine.html

Where to from here?

1) Northeast Passage during mid-winter?
https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-planning-year-round-shipping-northern-sea-route-2022-or-2023

2) The Suez Canal if still open to Russian warships?
3) Around Africa to the Strait of Gibraltar , if not closed by NATO?
4) Enter North Sea via English Channel ?
5) Longest route not logistical.....or maybe blocked also?
Entering North Sea to make way around Denmark heading towards Baltic Sea

:k_confused: Well those ruskies learn fast; it was a sure bet they weren't going thru the Strait of Tsushima...again!!?? :arrgh!: :oops::dead: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a2/Battle_of_Japan_Sea_%28Route_of_Baltic_Fleet%29_NT .PNG <I 'spect a variation on the 1904 fiasco; ie: history repeats itself in reverse....:hmmm: But with the Dardanelles closed to all warships by Turkey, deliveries to Ukraine will be tedious at best. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tsushima Suez Canal remains open to Ukraine and Russian sea traffic. https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/03/suez-canal-authority-remains-neutral-russian-ukrainian-war

[Armistead]

Didn't Turkey say their straits were closed to all warships unless Russian ships returning to their home port in the Black Sea?

[Aktungbby]

/\ per the Montreaux Convention of '36, Turkey can limit all warships; permitting Russian vessels home-based in the Black Sea passage, but disallowing reinforcement by other naval units not based there from reinforcing the Black Sea fleet. NATO is delighted with Turkey's actions in the matter.

[Jimbuna]

Going to be interesting to follow this group of ships to see where they are heading. Most likely it is Ukraine or Crimea-Then to be used in the war.

I say if they are heading for Ukraine we merge this thread with mine
Ukraine once again.

Markus

Monitoring the situation.

[Kapitan]

4 Russian warships Sailed through Japan’s Tsugaru strait to International Waters

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10623699/Japan-spots-four-Russian-warships-carrying-combat-vehicles-heading-Ukraine.html

Where to from here?

1) Northeast Passage during mid-winter?
https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-planning-year-round-shipping-northern-sea-route-2022-or-2023

2) The Suez Canal if still open to Russian warships?
3) Around Africa to the Strait of Gibraltar , if not closed by NATO?
4) Enter North Sea via English Channel ?
5) Longest route not logistical.....or maybe blocked also?
Entering North Sea to make way around Denmark heading towards Baltic Sea

:k_confused:

To take your points in turn

1) North East passage is passable with ice breakers its done routinely

2) Suez canal being an international waterway is open for all shipping including Russian warships

3) Africa would be the longest route by far requiring multiple re fuel points if they haven't taken a tanker or two along for the ride they could well and truly be stuffed

The STROG is not controlled by NATO and as it borders Spain and Morocco neither side has really the power to close it, its also an international water way.

4) Nothing stopping them doing this again the channel is an international waterway

5) That is a possibility however it would require a lot of overland transport after shipment and they would also be doing it under the nose of NATO.

[Kapitan]

Didn't Turkey say their straits were closed to all warships unless Russian ships returning to their home port in the Black Sea?

Yes as per article 19 of the Montreaux convention

However these ships will have their home port registered in the Pacific so Turkey can refuse to allow them past.

[mapuc]

Yes as per article 19 of the Montreaux convention

However these ships will have their home port registered in the Pacific so Turkey can refuse to allow them past.

And that is when it become interesting..Turkey refuse to let these Russian ships transfer through this strait.

If their destination is the Black sea-we don't know yet.

Markus

[Kapitan]

It is quite possible it could be Syria, they can then airlift if required but that will be a costly exercise no doubt.

[mapuc]

It is quite possible it could be Syria, they can then airlift if required but that will be a costly exercise no doubt.

It could also be the Baltic sea, I think however their destination is the Black sea
Some speculations

Turkey closed the Bosphorus Strait 28 Feb.
These 4 amphibious warships left some days before they were observed by Japanese navy.
The article in Mail online was written 17th of March

This must mean they left after the strait was closed.

Or am I thinking wrong ?

Markus

[Kapitan]

I cant quite remember but if they do get to Syria and they can tranship the load onto their LSTs that are registered in the Black sea then they could get around the closure by announcing they are returning to their home base.

[mapuc]

I cant quite remember but if they do get to Syria and they can tranship the load onto their LSTs that are registered in the Black sea then they could get around the closure by announcing they are returning to their home base.

Reading this from an article about Turkey closing the strait

"which prohibits the passage of military vessels of powers at war, except those returning to their port of registry."

https://atalayar.com/en/content/turkey-closes-bosphorus-warships-all-countries

Tells me it's only one way Warship that have homeport in the Black sea can sail into the black sea but not the other way..

Markus

[Kapitan]

Reading this from an article about Turkey closing the strait

"which prohibits the passage of military vessels of powers at war, except those returning to their port of registry."

https://atalayar.com/en/content/turkey-closes-bosphorus-warships-all-countries

Tells me it's only one way Warship that have homeport in the Black sea can sail into the black sea but not the other way..

Markus

Yes which makes it a one time shot but in times of desperation .......