China's navy battle force has more than tripled in size in only two decades

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/05/china/china-world-biggest-navy-intl-hnk-ml-dst/index.html



China's shipbuilding numbers are staggering -- dwarfing even the US efforts of World War II. China built more ships in one year of peace time (2019) than the US did in four of war (1941-1945).



A - rapidly decreasing - technological advantage gets you so far only, and not further. From one point on, superior numbers and the capability to compensate losseds by factors quick than the enemy, simply overwhelm said enemy by force of much bigger numbers.



In the 70s and 80s many said NATO would have gained air superiority due to tehcnically advanced ifhgers, compensating for superior numbers of the Warsaw Pact. But there are quite some veteran pilots from that age that both say the technological upper hand of NATO was being overestiumated, and that it thus would not have been sufficient to compensate for the numerical superiority of the WP.



And different to the Warsaw Pact back then, China is of equal technological capability, and superior economic power, and more favourable logistics lines.



It does not look good. The outlook looks even worse.

[3catcircus]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/05/china/china-world-biggest-navy-intl-hnk-ml-dst/index.html





A - rapidly decreasing - technological advantage gets you so far only, and not further. From one point on, superior numbers and the capability to compensate losseds by factors quick than the enemy, simply overwhelm said enemy by force of much bigger numbers.



In the 70s and 80s many said NATO would have gained air superiority due to tehcnically advanced ifhgers, compensating for superior numbers of the Warsaw Pact. But there are quite some veteran pilots from that age that both say the technological upper hand of NATO was being overestiumated, and that it thus would not have been sufficient to compensate for the numerical superiority of the WP.



And different to the Warsaw Pact back then, China is of equal technological capability, and superior economic power, and more favourable logistics lines.



It does not look good. The outlook looks even worse.

The CCP are very good at stealing and copying technology. *Every* chinese person in a foreign country should be considered a spy - whether a willing or unwilling participant.

[Jeff-Groves]

The CCP are very good at stealing and copying technology. *Every* chinese person in a foreign country should be considered a spy - whether a willing or unwilling participant.
Let's just push attacks on people of Asian Descent shall We?
:o

[3catcircus]

Let's just push attacks on people of Asian Descent shall We?
:o

The CCP ensures that all Chinese students are sending back anything useful during their studies.

They entice academics and those working in industry to steal research and products.

They lean on immigrants who still have family in China.

https://www.newsweek.com/china-involved-90-percent-economic-espionage-and-industrial-secrets-theft-1255908

No one is calling for attacks on asian people. People however, do need to be vigilant that their valuable IP isn't going to wind up being exploited.

[Texas Red]

There is a cyber war being waged against the US by China and other countries, and the US-instigated this by hacking the Iranian nuclear program back in 2008 or something. The US also fights back with computers, this is a war that hasn't erupted into military war yet. And the fact that China is building up their ships and military seems to say to me that they are preparing for war.

[Kapitan]

I think we are missing one huge point and a few small ones here and it is something both the USN and PLAN are very aware of.

While China in terms of hull count does have the largest navy in the world it does not have the largest logistics network.
Ultimately NATO has the largest logistics network spanning the entire globe with members and associate members (Sweden Singapore India Malaysia Thailand Japan South Korea Australia and New Zealand to name a few)

With the current incapability to keep multiple battlegroups supplied on an indefinite time frame away from friendly ports this means the only thing china has actually built is a blue water capable navy that's very strong regionally (Similar to Russia), Basically what we are looking at is a sea denial force.

The other pressing matter is the USN even with having less numbers in its fleet can overwhelm the Chinese in the use of battlefield missiles, the USN is capable of sending more ordinance down range than china, the gap is substantial.

The type 055 DDG for example fields a 112 cell VLS in theory at least that's 112 missiles it can use offensively (you never would because you need some for defense).
16 are planned and 2 are built and either active or on sea trials, this doesn't hold a candle to what the USN has.

The Ticonderoga class which would be considered its peer competitor, has 122 VLS cells and theres currently 22 of them active (yes i know a few will retire soon) but even if you cut the fleet down to 16 to match the type 055 plan you still have 160 more missiles than your opponent.

The current 67 active Arleigh burkes also field 90 VLS cells (Batch 1) and 96 VLS cells for newer Batches, China is reliant on its corvettes and frigates to bridge that gap.

Currently the ratio of missiles to field in battle between the USN and PLAN is a factor of 2 to 1 in the USN favor.
Oh and we haven't even got to the carriers or submarines !

A friend of mine Commander Keith Patton wrote this article it may interest some of you.

http://cimsec.org/battle-force-missiles-the-measure-of-a-fleet/40138?fbclid=IwAR0ZVNMOBwmKC7fPbmjbkyNYc3OvLj1Sy-OYqataNHV7wrOUeKYxpTDXtfc

[Skybird]

Kapitan, you said it yourself: China is a regional access denial force, but with the clear aim to become internationally potent as well.



You must count their coastal foiri8ng assets as well, p0lus their loandbased airforce, and their enormous landbased numbers of coastal anti-ship missiles.


If a DDG empties its vertical laucnh tubes, it mist go home and reload and come back, andntzat takes long time. The supply chains for China are very, very much smaller.



Their focus currently probably is the South Chinese sea, and the waters around Taiwan.


The US navy is set up globally, and even if they focus on a war zone and send most shiops there, they will nevertheless maintain significant ressources for other global reigons - and for protecting their long, long long supply lines. Which are very vulnerable.


So, I must stay more sceptical than you. :hmmm: Even mnore since mentally the Chiense state and people and their huge numbers in platform and missiles allows them to digest significantly heavier losses, than the US home crow or military numbers.



Only one factor speaks against a war, and that is the fact that the war idnex of China is as low as that of the US. Both nations demographically are kind of unlikely, form that index' logic, to easily stumble into a h8ige, assive war with high losses.


The war index makes a statement on the ratio between very old, combat incapable men in as society, and young, combat-capoable and aggressive men. An index og one means that for 1000 old men dying, 1000 young men are there to take their place in the demogroahci structure. Both the US and China are short of 1 only (US 0.96 and China 0.99), whereas the countries where wars have occured in the past 40 years all have (had) indices as high as 4-6.5, means for thousand old men dyiong, 4-6.5 thousand young men are there to repoalce them in socity. A low war index means it is an old, overaged, not-eager-to-conquer and not-wanting to-suffer society.



Afghnaistan, both for the USSR and the US, were wars that they could not have won from the start on, becasue they were fighting aganst a hopelessly high war index, which over the wars even raised further.



The US has since WWII not taken on an real equal enemy anymore, it may have started wars against enemies it underestimated, but not knowingly against enemies of equal capability and striking power. And the US must pay more attention to the mood of the public at home, than China.


These considerations are decisive to make and to understand. Its the one thing that speaks against China going bollocks all of a sudden. On the other hand, like Western and Russian nations before, they too may not pay attention - or do: and start a war before their age structure in society detoriates even further against war - and start something because they think they can get away with it. This is an aspect I find impossible to make any predictions on. They politically now act far more aggressive than ten years ago I would have thought to be realistic to expect then. And they clearly plan to dominate the world, economically, logistically, and militarily, they build networks of alliances and bases all around, whereever nations are stupid enough to let them in.

[Catfish]

Today I know of three german/international companies, whose computer systems have now failed due to the chinese "Hafnium" exploit, one has several server farms controlling CAD machines in other countries – all stopped now. No autofallback or failover saved them.

edited: The chinese exploit opens the innards of MS Exchange mailing systems and other data so emails, calendars and project data can be read and copied. Once identified and resistance being ramped up, it is expected to open the door for worse and real damaging action, like encrypting data and harddisks so they become unreadable, with no chance to get it back or working. There is a patch out now, but there are some preconditions to be met, like certain updates installed before and so on. Certain older versions of Exchange cannot be fixed, but those have not been targeted (yet).

This is known as to be running since january, 2021. Smells like a declaration of war..
https://nycboss.com/2021/03/10/china-is-at-war-with-the-world-and-its-escalating/

Would not agree with Kapitan's take on the naval situation, thanks to developing and installing airports and harbours along the african coast their naval capaility is not entirely restricted to the mainland. Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/String_of_Pearls_(Indian_Ocean)

I always wonder why someone would make deals with a dictatorship that has aggressive world domination written all over its banners. Western companies should not be allowed to produce there, from VW to Apple, and whatnot.
And of course no telecommunication bought or installed, by, or from them.

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/11/asia/quad-us-india-japan-australia-intl-hnk/index.html
The light and the shadow.

[Kapitan]

Kapitan, you said it yourself: China is a regional access denial force, but with the clear aim to become internationally potent as well.

This is true that is correct they are predominantly a regional denial force

You must count their coastal foiri8ng assets as well, p0lus their loandbased airforce, and their enormous landbased numbers of coastal anti-ship missiles.

Very much so however I was focusing purely on Naval only peer to peer, with the Airforce it does add an entirely new dimension to the frame, it also closes the BFM gap that's very correct.
However; your also now having to factor in 5 or 6 aircraft carriers plus assets land based in Japan Guam Philippines and South Korea for the Americans which doesn't quite match the Chinese but it certainly decreases the numbers they would be able to use against a USN Fleet.
This will tie up a large resource pool for the Chinese, also the United States currently has the capability to launch a lot of Tomahawk missiles targeting the land bases and systems something the Chinese A) Don't Have and B) Cant reach.

If a DDG empties its vertical laucnh tubes, it mist go home and reload and come back, andntzat takes long time. The supply chains for China are very, very much smaller.

That is true it does have to return as do the Chinese assets, your also failing to realize that South Korea, Guam and Japan are huge weapons caches for the USN which in turn shortens that chain dramatically, these ports will be open to the USN in the event of war with China.


Their focus currently probably is the South Chinese sea, and the waters around Taiwan.

That is their stated aim


The US navy is set up globally, and even if they focus on a war zone and send most shiops there, they will nevertheless maintain significant ressources for other global reigons - and for protecting their long, long long supply lines. Which are very vulnerable.

The supply lines your talking about and this is something I work in, they are long however the threat level is actually quite low.
A scenario is likely to play out that the USN will contain China in the SCS and it will air lift weapons over land while commercial and MSC vessels will re supply the main fleet bases in Japan Guam and South Korea.
Its only when the asset gets close and the estimate they put on it is 300nm from the base (mainly Guam) that the asset becomes in scope of being targeted.


So, I must stay more sceptical than you. :hmmm: Even mnore since mentally the Chiense state and people and their huge numbers in platform and missiles allows them to digest significantly heavier losses, than the US home crow or military numbers.

China like to Soviet Union of WW2 has the capability to take more casualties than the USA not just physically but in public opinion as well.
A war with China is not just going to be a war with huge material loss either it is going to be basic economic suicide for both parties.
I have more optimism that the USN can hold its own simply because of its resource pool, the quality of training, the fact that its troops are battle experienced (china's are not) and all of this has shown to make a difference even when numbers are against you (take a look at the battle for goose green 1982)


Only one factor speaks against a war, and that is the fact that the war idnex of China is as low as that of the US. Both nations demographically are kind of unlikely, form that index' logic, to easily stumble into a h8ige, assive war with high losses.


The war index makes a statement on the ratio between very old, combat incapable men in as society, and young, combat-capoable and aggressive men. An index og one means that for 1000 old men dying, 1000 young men are there to take their place in the demogroahci structure. Both the US and China are short of 1 only (US 0.96 and China 0.99), whereas the countries where wars have occured in the past 40 years all have (had) indices as high as 4-6.5, means for thousand old men dyiong, 4-6.5 thousand young men are there to repoalce them in socity. A low war index means it is an old, overaged, not-eager-to-conquer and not-wanting to-suffer society.



Afghnaistan, both for the USSR and the US, were wars that they could not have won from the start on, becasue they were fighting aganst a hopelessly high war index, which over the wars even raised further.



The US has since WWII not taken on an real equal enemy anymore, it may have started wars against enemies it underestimated, but not knowingly against enemies of equal capability and striking power. And the US must pay more attention to the mood of the public at home, than China.


These considerations are decisive to make and to understand. Its the one thing that speaks against China going bollocks all of a sudden. On the other hand, like Western and Russian nations before, they too may not pay attention - or do: and start a war before their age structure in society detoriates even further against war - and start something because they think they can get away with it. This is an aspect I find impossible to make any predictions on. They politically now act far more aggressive than ten years ago I would have thought to be realistic to expect then. And they clearly plan to dominate the world, economically, logistically, and militarily, they build networks of alliances and bases all around, whereever nations are stupid enough to let them in.

Indeed I think we can assume that no one wants a war regardless of age group, personally I couldn't see the snowflake generation going off to fight like they did in 1939 it would be all about understanding and peace love caring and don't want to offend anyone.

I can see exactly why you made the statements you did, with the belton road and silk road initiative China is trying to replicate the same hold the west has over the world.

I stress this point though, right now the Chinese while rapidly advancing do not yet have the logistical capability the west does, it also does not have all the areas of the globe covered like the west does.
China would find it hard if not impossible to re supply areas of operation in combat conditions simply because of location and size of the supplies needed.

Do i think that eventually they will get there? Yes I do probably by my estimate around the mid 2040's. but as of today in 2021 they don't have the capability.

Nations that have let the Chinese in are generally odd ball, 3rd world or need huge investment and that's something China is willing to do and the west is not.
There is also a cultural dimension notice how China moves in and out of Muslim states while the west is vilified this is because IMHO China goes in and does not want to change their culture as they have no interest in religion.

[Kapitan]

Would not agree with Kapitan's take on the naval situation, thanks to developing and installing airports and harbours along the african coast their naval capaility is not entirely restricted to the mainland. Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/String_of_Pearls_(Indian_Ocean)


My first comment on the threat was looking at it from a pure Navy v Navy

As I said above in reply to Skybird, when you add in the air force you change the dimension of the war.

We should also factor in the the USA will operate from Guam, South Korea and Japan giving them a similar reach.
I also pointed out that while these overseas territories exist for china the biggest problem it would have is re supplying them during combat.

In order for China to get to the African coast and Indian ocean there's only one route really open to them, and all the USN has to do realistically is park a few SSN's and a couple of DDG's and the merchant ships wont be going much further.
The supply lanes from the west coast USA to various spots near China are move secure because they have a lack of land mass, if you think nations like the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia are going to sit back and not feed information about shipping movements to the five Eyes your heavily mistaken.

At any given day coast watchers post on facebook and other media outlets movements of ships, and at some point the Chinese supply ships will have to pass through close to land some where to make it into the Indian Ocean.
If its not the coast watchers it will be the VTS system and any ship not displaying AIS your likely to trigger a response from that countries maritime patrol system (especially Singapore)


The west will try to blockade the Chinese in the SCS this means re supply could only realistically be done via air which is unlikely.
Any supply ship heading down into the Indian ocean is likely going to be intercepted detained or sunk and that will mean any forces in that area will end up out of supplies.

As I said to Ikalugin in another thread the reason why France and UK are tier 2 blue water navies (China and Russia are Tier 3) is because both have the ability to operate indefinitely beyond their borders and have friendly ports in every corner of the globe (China doesn't have this yet) so its down to supply chains (which is what I work in).

The Islands the Chinese are building are vulnerable and they know it (history has shown us this) its more of a tactic to slow down and deplete rather than use a serious main force base.

China can absorb massive losses and still fight and the big thing is Chinese troops are not battle trained like the US forces and that really does matter and the reason it matters well again look back in History to 1982, take a look at the battle of goose green Argentina out numbered the British almost 2 to 1 and still lost.

In reality though I do strongly believe that any war between the USA and China will not be limited to just these two parties.
I do think that The USA will be allied with Japan, South Korea, UK, France and Australia (the exercises and foreign polices denote this)

I also strongly doubt Russia will want to be involved and I don't think it will come in on the side of the Chinese at all, the Iranians might but then that would also provoke the Gulf States.

Either way the outcome for both is clearly going to be Economical Suicide.

[Skybird]

More sobering news, fully supporting my growing scepticism on the US being capable to defend Taiwan. (If they even would be willing to embark seriously on this self-destructive task, which I am not convinced of).

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-s-growing-firepower-casts-doubt-whether-u-s-could-n1262148

Some people think the future by terms from the past (a mistake militaries make time and again: assessing the expected next war by the standards of the last war which they had won), and necessarily conclude that things are okay, kind of.

US alliances and bases throughout Asia will not help it there. It will not last long enough. Plus they will be busy with mere own survial. Just this: mere own survival. And I think quite some will not. China has the means in missiles to just overflood any technologically advanced defence. America is too overconfident.

[Rockstar]

Implications of growing Chinese internal and external challenges

July 8, 2020, 11:55 AM IST SD Pradhan in Chanakya Code, World, TOI

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/ChanakyaCode/implications-of-growing-chinese-internal-and-external-challenges/

China which has expansionist approach of the 18th Century, keeps its military budget fairly high. For the last several years its defence budget was increasing in double digit. Even now when the economy is suffering, it is kept high. At the National People’s Congress in May this year, Beijing announced a military budget of $178.6 billion for 2020 and said it would grow by 6.6 per cent year-on-year. The military budget stood at $175 billion in 2018 and $177.5 billion in 2019. The aim is to deter US as it considers that if it has to establish its hegemony in the world, it must have parity with US militarily. It is pushing the Chinese economy further downwards.

[mapuc]

Isn't it more than the quantity of how many ships, subs, bombeplane and regular troops a country have ?

Shouldn't things like technologies be part of it.

Markus

[Skybird]

Isn't it more than the quantity of how many ships, subs, bombeplane and regular troops a country have ?

Shouldn't things like technologies be part of it.

Markus
I said it often already: technological quality can copensate for numericla inferiorit yonly to a certain degree - and not further.

Also a technologicla platform still cannot be in severla places simultaneously.

It also does not have a cat's nine lives. If you only have limited numbers of platfoms, every saingle loss weighs the heavier, is more difficult to replace, and increases the risks for the so far surviving platforms.

BTW, i wold not tak eit for granted anynore that the Chinese militarey is technologically so inferior as many still seem ti imply. That was twenty years ago. Today they drive many technological innovations instead of just stealing and robbing them from others. In some high tech fields they dominate, I think. Due to the US pressure and sanctions and the Huawei row launched by the US, they have multiplied their efforts to become independent from Western and US chip production.

[Rockstar]

Taiwan’s Silicon Shield Collides with its Silicon Lance

Hi and welcome to this special open to all February 12, 2021 episode of Peter Lee’s China Threat Report.

https://www.patreon.com/posts/open-to-all-with-47482074

[Skybird]

Dont bet that it stays that way, Rockstar. The stories told in your link are the reason why Xi on the last peoples cingress made gaining autarky in their semiconductor production an absolute top one goal of his regime.



Also, all semiconductor production sites in Taiwan are inside range of Chinas missile pool. And tbey have more of these than Taiwan has defences, or the US, to take all incoming vampyres out.



If you can attack with sufficient numbers of missiles, every defence gets flooded and overwhelmed.

[Rockstar]

Yes, it seems a majority of the world's chip production is in Taiwan. According to that article not only is China spending incredibly large sums ramping up its own lower quality chip manufacturing. Even the U.S. is moving chip manufacturing inside our own borders, as a matter of fact it mentions Texas. I think we're doing it primarily for the reason Taiwan is near a hostile neighbor. If COVID has taught us anything it's that when the feces hits the rotating oscillator a nation needs to be able to produce the tools necessary to protect itself.


Secondly China doesn't have much experience producing quality chips. Everyone else, Taiwan, Japan, U.S., South Korea, E.U. does. That makes a great selling point when you start looking for a new EV to drive around in. Taiwan chip manufactures can't handle it all there needs to be other facilities opened to keep up with the increasing global demand. Might take the heat off Taiwan making them not all that important to China.

[Catfish]

According to that article not only is China spending incredibly large sums ramping up its own lower quality chip manufacturing. [...]
Secondly China doesn't have much experience producing quality chips.When you look at time spent and needed China is indeed "inferior", it only needed ten years to become almost equal with western products.
Their chips are not of lower quality, some are even better and also cheaper when it comes to Intel i7 level comparisons.
https://versus.com/en/huawei-kirin-970-vs-intel-core-i7-8650u

Or compare a new Huawei to Apple mobiles, from speed to battery life. They are no far behind. Don't bother whether the basic tech has been copied or stolen, thing is the outcome here.

[Skybird]

Huawei's 5G kits are world leading.

My old Huawei smartphone (now used as a Navi exclusively on my ebike) beats the more expensive Samsung phones that since then went through my hands (for my Mum, and myself) by clear margins.

Fenix is a company that has beaten up the price market for LED torchlights. Superb manuifacturing quality, for prices that the multiple timers more expensive US competition and European competition could not long compete with, and had to give ground to. Now all such lights are much cheap, the general price niveau is down.

( I complain about the advertizing and business practices of Chinese traders on Wetsenr platrofmres, however. Often you get straightly lied to your face, information on terms and conditions and locatiosn from which the shipping actually starts, are deceived and kept hidden behind misleading formulations. But Chinese business practices are something Chinese zraders have earned a bad reptuation for in Asia since many centuries already. Be on your guard all the time, and never take a weak position towards their offers, better say No from early on. Personally I have drawn consequences and do not order form anything related to Chinese companies anymore. Too many smelly experiences. Lying is as common as copyright infringement and stealing intellectual property. Thats not just clichées or racist lies - thats simply empirical fact.)

[Rockstar]

I don't think anyone is going to go to war over Taiwan. Wars will be fought but not with bullets they will be won and lost on the strength of their economy. Russia wasn't kicked out of Afghanistan by a bunch of religious dirt farmers. They pulled out mainly because their own failing economy and internal politics demanded it. We won the cold war but not with tanks and guided missiles. But because capitalism works and we were able to outspend them. :D



https://alphahistory.com/coldwar/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/sovieteconomycartoon-e1601859982367.jpg


No different than the war the U.S. and China are now fighting. Other than controlling those chip manufactures. I don't think either of us really give a rats arse about Taiwan independence. We place a huge burden on China's economy when we control those Taiwan chip manufactures. Not only do we have the advantage in military experience and hardware. We also have the experience and know how in defeating communism and communist governments without firing a shot.

[mapuc]

I don't know how to translate an article in a Danish newspaper, so I go the long way and translate it via google.

Last week the former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh made following statement in the weekly magazine Lippert:

- If China threatens Taiwan, we must be ready for war -

This scared me.

Markus

[Catfish]

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation in the South China sea :yeah:

Taiwan has the same right to be regarded as the "real" China as the People's republic mainland dictatorship, question is if Xi Jinping or his non-elected successors would attack it. It would be economical suicide for sure.

[mapuc]

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation in the South China sea :yeah:

Taiwan has the same right to be regarded as the "real" China as the People's republic mainland dictatorship, question is if Xi Jinping or his non-elected successors would attack it. It would be economical suicide for sure.

I have been thinking.

China has archieved so much the last 50 years, going from nothing to become a moderne society, they are on the way to be the next leading superpower, why put all this at stake, by attacking Taiwan.

Markus

[Skybird]

It would be economical suicide for sure.
Would it? Damaging, yes. Suicide, no.

Taiwan on the other hand would be economically wiped out in the first hours of the war. The Wets would be more hurt by the destruyction of Taiwan, than China. Because we still depend so heavily on Taiwanese CPU production.

I never was a friend of this globalization madness. Its shortsighted, and stupid, and maximises own vulnerabilities and dependencies.

Gaining autarky is the lesson the West has to learn from the past 20 years. Stopping to make one's future enemies strong.


Lets have a reality check. Merkel in Germany, the still storngest economy of the eU block, rejected reality when leaving nuclear power behind, rejected sens eof realism when channeöling the bioggest mass moivement of known history to Europea nd Germany, and again rejected reality when delaying vaccine shopping for the sake of some higher superidealiustic stupdid reasoning meant to push more powers to the EU. On the other side of the Atlantic there was the recent four years opf attempting to challenge China, and all these challenges, like the sanctionizing of Russia before, led to Bejing changin its political priorities so to boost independence from Wetsern material high tech supplies in the coming years - which will, once they are done,m means China will be stronger than before. In parts it already shows.



No, I am not optimistic that the West will learn autoarky. It instead will carry on to propagate global group psychotherapy with a lot of babbling.

[mapuc]

^ Skybird, have you taken every factors into the equation ?

What would exactly happen if China do as they has threaten to do - attack Taiwan.

There's always this unknown factor.

Markus

[Skybird]

You can read in my link provided what those wargames of theirs showed time and again. Taiwanese air force wiped out very early. Us carriers kept at bay, u s bases under attack throughout the region. And then it depends what they want. A land invasion might command high own losses, but i think they will play their missile card and bomb taiwanese economic targets all over the place.


Its about their numbers of missiles. They can overflood every defence they want.


If they really go seriously after Taiwan and not caring for own losses, i see not that the US can anything do about that. Its not about gaining economic sites. Its about state reason. The renegade must be forced under the yoke or die.

[Rockstar]

Here's the war we're fighting.
https://www.fbi.gov/investigate/counterintelligence/the-china-threat


This FBI and National Counterintelligence and Security Center film—inspired by the case of former CIA officer Kevin Mallory—details the fictional account of a former U.S. Intelligence Community official who was targeted by China via a fake profile on a professional networking site and recruited to turn over classified information before being arrested. The FBI and NCSC seek to raise awareness of this issue and help individuals in the private sector, academic and research communities, and other U.S. government agencies guard against this threat posed by foreign intelligence services. More at fbi.gov/nevernight


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5V7G9IBomQ&t=111s

[mapuc]

You can read in my link provided what those wargames of theirs showed time and again. Taiwanese air force wiped out very early. Us carriers kept at bay, u s bases under attack throughout the region. And then it depends what they want. A land invasion might command high own losses, but i think they will play their missile card and bomb taiwanese economic targets all over the place.


Its about their numbers of missiles. They can overflood every defence they want.


If they really go seriously after Taiwan and not caring for own losses, i see not that the US can anything do about that. Its not about gaining economic sites. Its about state reason. The renegade must be forced under the yoke or die.

No doubt that you/they could be right.

There's one factor no-one has put into the equation.

As you mentioned "If they really go seriously after Taiwan and not caring for own losses"
And how about US military's effort or will to defend Taiwan, how high is it ?

Therefore the use of nuke, SHALL not be removed from the equation.

I so truly hope I'm totally wrong.

Markus

[FireDragon76]

More sobering news, fully supporting my growing scepticism on the US being capable to defend Taiwan. (If they even would be willing to embark seriously on this self-destructive task, which I am not convinced of).

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/china-s-growing-firepower-casts-doubt-whether-u-s-could-n1262148

Some people think the future by terms from the past (a mistake militaries make time and again: assessing the expected next war by the standards of the last war which they had won), and necessarily conclude that things are okay, kind of.

US alliances and bases throughout Asia will not help it there. It will not last long enough. Plus they will be busy with mere own survial. Just this: mere own survival. And I think quite some will not. China has the means in missiles to just overflood any technologically advanced defence. America is too overconfident.


I agree. The US is not guaranteed South Korea and Japan's support in a conflict with China. Alot of Japanese and South Koreans are more interested in peaceful trade with China, than helping out an aging superpower that they are much more ambivalent about than many Americans imagine.


As far as navies go, alot of the China's fleet is 10-20 years behind the US in terms of technology. But they are catching up rapidly.

[FireDragon76]

I have been thinking.

China has archieved so much the last 50 years, going from nothing to become a moderne society, they are on the way to be the next leading superpower, why put all this at stake, by attacking Taiwan.

Markus


China benefits alot from trade with Taiwan so I don't think they are eager to kill the goose that lays the golden egg.



Chinese also play the long game. Most Taiwanese people are committed to closer ties to the mainland, so some kind of reunification is probably inevitable.

[mapuc]

China benefits alot from trade with Taiwan so I don't think they are eager to kill the goose that lays the golden egg.



Chinese also play the long game. Most Taiwanese people are committed to closer ties to the mainland, so some kind of reunification is probably inevitable.

I think you're right.

I think you are also right about SK and Japan-They would defend China's action if China does invade Taiwan - Anything to avoid war with China.

China has developed into a real superpower in the region and no neighbour countries feel the need to have a fight with them.

Markus

[FireDragon76]

I think you're right.

I think you are also right about SK and Japan-They would defend China's action if China does invade Taiwan - Anything to avoid war with China.

China has developed into a real superpower in the region and no neighbour countries feel the need to have a fight with them.

Markus


It's also cultural- Korea has historically had very close ties to China in particular, beyond politics. US style anti-Chinese sentiment isn't going to play there. In a relatively recent Korean slasher film that was a metaphor for global politics, the US relationship to South Korea was represented by a lurking monster bred from toxic waste. Not exactly the most positive image.



If any country supported the US in East Asia against China, it would probably be Japan. But I think that's a long shot.

[Mr Quatro]

China benefits alot from trade with Taiwan so I don't think they are eager to kill the goose that lays the golden egg.

Chinese also play the long game. Most Taiwanese people are committed to closer ties to the mainland, so some kind of reunification is probably inevitable.

I agree ... a lot of the stories about China mad at Taiwan are just made up click bait stories, but there was a lady many years ago (back in the1960's) from like Norway or somewhere up in that region that prophesied that a small country would start WW III.

Here it is ... I found it :hmmm:

http://www.bethelbarrie.ca/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/1968-Prophecy-by-90-Year-Old-Woman-in-Norway.pdf

1968 Prophecy by 90 Year Old Woman in Norway

An old woman of 90 from Valdres in Norway had a vision from God in 1968. The evangelist Emanuel
Minos had meetings (services) where she lived. He had the opportunity to meet her, and she told him
what she had seen. He wrote it down, but thought it to be so unintelligible that he put it in a drawer.
Now, almost 30 years later, he understands he has to share the vision with others.
The woman from Valdres was a very alert, reliable, awake and credible Christian, with a good
reputation among all who knew her. This is what she saw:
"I saw the time just before the coming of Jesus and the outbreak of the Third World War. I saw the
events with my natural eyes. I saw the world like a kind of a globe and saw Europe, land by land. I
saw Scandinavia. I saw Norway. I saw certain things that would take place just before the return of
Jesus, and just before the last calamity happens, a calamity the likes of which we have never before
experienced.

That was 1968, but here's another one from 1937 even more terrifyingly coming true.

WHEN THE OIL FLOWS

An elder in the Pentecostal Church at Moss, Norway, Martin Andersen, heard the following prophecy
in 1937, in Moss:

‘When oil comes out of the North Sea and along the Norwegian coast, things will begin to happen,
and the return of Jesus is approaching.’

When these words had been proclaimed, people stood up in the congregation and asked the man to sit down and not speak such nonsense.
In 1937 it was indeed nonsense to talk about oil being pumped along the Norwegian coast.

Today all the world’s big oil companies are pumping oil along the
coast of Norway. Norway is the world’s second greatest exporter of oil - after Saudi Arabia.