Russia’s Vladimir Putin just got one step closer to being "president" for life [Archive]

Onkel Neal

03-10-20, 08:00 PM

When are people going quit going along with calling dictators "president"?

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21173493/putin-russia-president-term-limits-coronavirus

“for [the] long term, society must have guarantees for the regular change of power,” adding, “This is why I do not believe it is viable to delete the restriction on the number of presidential terms from the Constitution.”

In other words, this might not always be a good idea, but it’s a good idea for Russia right now. “I have no doubt that the day will come when the supreme, presidential power in Russia will not be so personified, if I may say so, that it will not be connected to a certain individual,” Putin said.

Except for him. Sad.

Aktungbby

03-10-20, 08:08 PM

look on the bright side... he's old(one year younger than I:doh::O:) and now they won't find anyone who's actually more dangerously competent! My puzzlement is why would any one want the job longer than the 20 years he's already served?:arrgh!:

Skybird

03-10-20, 08:52 PM

Can you imagine him to survive for long after he has given up the powers he has as president? He must have made himself a hilarious ammount of enemies amongst economic tycoons, oligarchs, mafiosi, and fat cats embedded in the government-bureaucracy's internal "nest structure". He can live probably only as long as he stays strong and in control. No way out, no way back.

Also, he is kind of possessed, he is a driven one. I think many people in the West misunderstand how much he really believes in what he is doing and in the Russia he has formed and created. He is an offender by conviction. His passion is ice-coldly executed and carried out - but a passion it is.

Or in brief: he has no other choice than to continue.

And why not? Even if his scores with the Russian people currently are fluctuating, most Russians still support him and will not resist to these changes now. He changes the rules, he is authoritarian, and Russians by huge majority will tolerate both. So why should he stop?

You could as well ask why Trump should candidate for a second term. Why should he not...? Dispite all what speaks against him, many Americans still loyally stand behind him and forgive him his lies, his failures, his duds, his incompetence and verbal excesses and impossible behaviour. They are willing to let him get away.

It could be that Putin overstays his time and misses the right time when his populaerity falls below what can ,maintain his stay in power. Many powerpoliticians miss the right time to step back. But this time is not yet here for Putin, I think.

Catfish

03-11-20, 03:17 AM

Nullyfying the last election periods to start counting anew :haha:, nothing else than a coup d'état. But we already had a thread about that.

ikalugin

03-11-20, 03:52 AM

Some clarifications (from my understanding and I can be wrong):

- there are two separate initiatives, to allow unlimited number of term limits and to reset the number of terms served, with the later being justified by the change in the nature of the presidency.
- the first initiative got shut down completely in the speech by Putin while the second was sent to the judicial review and now awaits it.
- even if the amendments do pass judicial review, referendum and so on they would not make Putin president for life - he would still need to win in two 6 year election cycles and then he would no longer be elegible (this is where 2036 date comes from - 2024+6+6).

p.s. read the article :D

As to the surprise - we are living in lean-agile political climate, so rapid change is the norm. However it is too early to say where this initiative would end, it would appear that CC may be used as a tool to legitimise post transition system by not passing those amendments in the judicial review.

Kazuaki Shimazaki II

03-11-20, 04:01 AM

I'm curious as to how that would even be phrased in a Constitution, since those are the most abstract of legal instruments and now we have to enter a one-time exception (a very concrete measure) into it.

But to be fair to Putin, back when his words can be taken as a push for less centralization, people were horribly hostile and assuming the worst anyway. In a sense, what's the point of being nice, then...

Catfish

03-11-20, 04:05 AM

When Putin dies before the last cycle he was [whatever] for life :03:

ikalugin

03-11-20, 04:31 AM

When Putin dies before the last cycle he was [whatever] for life :03:

Well that could happen before 2024 when his current term expires.

Kazuaki Shimazaki II

03-11-20, 04:54 AM

"I propose to either lift the presidential term limit or add a clause that after the revised constitution enters force, the incumbent president, just like any other citizen, has the right to seek the presidency," she told lawmakers, who responded with resounding applause.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/russia/2020/russia-200310-rferl01.htm?_m=3n%252e002a%252e2815%252eaq0ao04c7e %252e2llw

Comrade Tereshkova clearly is not skilled in legal-writing. With such a formulation, the reading will be in conjunction with the term limit, so basically the incumbent president will only be able to seek the presidency if he hasn't exhausted his limit.

Catfish

03-11-20, 05:09 AM

[...] With such a formulation, the reading will be in conjunction with the term limit, so basically the incumbent president will only be able [seek the presidency if he hasn't exhausted his limit.
Lol, ok. However, the limit as you call it has just been reset to zero (by friendly suggestion from Putin), so he has not exhausted it, nor will he ever in his lifetime :03:

Jimbuna

03-11-20, 05:10 AM

I've said it many times on this forum over the years: Putin = Democratically elected dictator.

Catfish

03-11-20, 05:29 AM

I've said it many times on this forum over the years: Putin = Democratically elected dictator.
If any political competitor happens to fall down some stairs or somehow manages to find himself in prison.. I would not quite call the survivor "democratically elected" :03: Not that some oligarch would have been "better".

OT: I do not want to compare Putin to Hitler, but the mechanisms of getting to power are the same. Since millenia, i might say.

They also called the election of Hitler "democratic", so he called himself the "elected Reichskanzler". Of course he was not. Other parties had higher voting numbers and those of the NSDAP were falling. But if any Reichstagsabgeordneter had to fear for his life and family by ways of the SA and secret police waiting behind the parliament's doors, he preferred to at least abstain from his vote.
There were only a few social democratic party delegates who stood up and voted against Hitler, and they paid the price.

ikalugin

03-11-20, 06:21 AM

Lol, ok. However, the limit as you call it has just been reset to zero (by friendly suggestion from Putin), so he has not exhausted it, nor will he ever in his lifetime :03:

That is not factually correct.

The number of terms would be reset to 0 should the Duma legislate this (there is one more vote to go) and if it passes judicial review by Constitutional court, (I assume that it would be signed by Putin b/c he OK'ed it). So you should't get ahead of yourself.

Catfish

03-11-20, 06:31 AM

That is not factually correct. [...] So you should't get ahead of yourself.
One more vote to go, after it passed two.
As astonishing as it may look, my chrystal ball tells me that the third "vote" somehow and magically gets through.

I assume that it would be signed by Putin b/c he OK'ed it:03:

ikalugin

03-11-20, 06:49 AM

One more vote to go, after it passed two.
As astonishing as it may look, my chrystal ball tells me that the third "vote" somehow and magically gets through.

:03:

And a judicial review. Which you forgot. So yes, you shouldn't get ahead of yourself, this is the job of the pundits.

p.s. this judicial review is a non standard feature. If rubber stamping was desirable then it is counter intuitive to add additional parties to the lot.

ikalugin

03-11-20, 10:05 AM

Well, it is moving forward now, with the upper house supporting the bill.

Aktungbby

03-11-20, 10:22 AM

I've said it many times on this forum over the years: Putin = Democratically elected dictator.

THERE'S NO disPUTIN' THAT!:O:

Onkel Neal

03-11-20, 10:26 AM

I've said it many times on this forum over the years: Putin = Democratically elected dictator.

You are right, Jim. Though I'm not so sure how legit their elections are. Can any intelligent electorate vote the same guy into office this many times without the use of fraud?

The only thing Russian Joe can say to this is, "Oh yeah? Look who you have running, can you say it's any better?"

I can only hang my head.

Jimbuna

03-11-20, 10:44 AM

I doubt Russian democracy is anything like that of the majority of countries in the west.

mapuc

03-11-20, 11:33 AM

Say the same here to our Russians friends

He (Putin) is your elected President and therefore your headache

Markus

Skybird

03-11-20, 03:57 PM

You are right, Jim. Though I'm not so sure how legit their elections are. Can any intelligent electorate vote the same guy into office this many times without the use of fraud?

The only thing Russian Joe can say to this is, "Oh yeah? Look who you have running, can you say it's any better?"

I can only hang my head.
Either Stalin or Ulbricht once said something like: "It must look as if it were democratic, but we must make sure that we stay in absolute control."

Who said that Russia ever was "democratic"? Was the German Democratic Republic "democratic"?

Russia has no tradition of freedom and liberal society, quite the opposite, it has a tradition of authoritarianism, and that also is true for many of those places that were its former South-Eastern provinces during the USSR's times, and now are independent states. They are practically all authoritarian.

And some do not even try to look democratic.

And people do not object as long as the economy is doing well enough so that it keeps their family's boat afloat.

I recall two lines of dialogue from some TV series, I think, I do not recall what series it was. One person got "accused" of always being so pessimistic. The reply was: "No, I am not pessimistic. I am Russian."

Rockstar

03-11-20, 05:03 PM

Skybird

03-11-20, 05:41 PM

I'm always amazed at the behavior of the public here in the U.S. Even though we dont have a dictatorship. Many always seem to give one man all the attention and expectation he be able with the wave of a hand fix everything. Even though that's not his job. If Putin were to run for dictator in the U.S. he would probably win, sometimes I think people crave it. Thankfully our system of government makes that hard to do.
I always had kind of the impression that Americans chased away the king - and then realised they miss the glory of the royal show from having one. :)

And in the end, tribal drives are deeply rooted in us. We want leaders, Führers. Many are willing to compromise their freedoms and hand over their self-responsibility in exchnage for an easier life. I would even claim that globally this mindset is absolutely dominating. Just look at the many blossoming religious and political totalitarian and leadership cults. It starts with the attempt to bribe a theistic deity with prayers so that it gulfils the praying a free wish, and ends with presidnets beign more or less democratically elected and then allowing them to be equipped with almost monarchic, absolutistic powers. The love and craving for a Führer, by far is not just a German trait.

Catfish

03-12-20, 09:37 AM

Not entirely OT here, an ukrainian view :03:

https://empr.media/opinion/analytics/learning-military-and-intelligence-lessons-past-and-current-international-mistakes/

"While the former Ambassador Mr McFaul believes that Russia could have taken another, brighter path Bukovsky has always argued that a Putinesque Russian revanchism was inevitable since the base evils of the former Soviet Union in Russia were never rooted out."

Platapus

03-12-20, 04:24 PM

I am very happy that it takes a lot of effort and time to change our constitution.

That's how it should be

nikimcbee

03-12-20, 11:31 PM

I doubt Russian democracy is anything like that of the majority of countries in the west.

No doubt 'Merican meddling in their elections. Maybe HRC could run as VP there?

Catfish

03-13-20, 06:33 AM

And.. what a surprise.. "Every Russian regional parliament backs changes allowing Putin to extend rule - RIA"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin/every-russian-regional-parliament-backs-changes-allowing-putin-to-extend-rule-ria-idUSKBN21011O

"Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament, told lawmakers on Thursday to rally behind Vladimir Putin against what he said was a foreign campaign to discredit the constitutional reforms"

Of course.

ikalugin

03-13-20, 10:23 AM

I mean that campaighn does exist, so he is not wrong. Back in 2014 we also went for US influence networks, particularly those supporting regional ethnic nationalists.

Kazuaki Shimazaki II

03-16-20, 11:59 PM

The Russian Constitutional Court, unsurprisingly, approves the thing. To be fair to them, though, a lot of it was phrased in such a way that would be hard to reject. For example, the thing about Constitutional Court judges being firable required the joint work of the President and the Federation Council and it is a bit hard for them to argue that two branches of government cannot unite, following procedures, to fire them (effectively they will be immune).

The least justified part, to my mind, was the open approval to restrict freedom of speech on secession, because no Article 13 and Article 29 cannot be stretched that far and further, it is one thing to say the ECHR acted ultra vires on the Anchugov v Russia affair because it concerned an article already present and written unambiguously. It is another thing to add new material to the Constitution and expect that to roll as well. Though to be fair, the ECHR blew the shot by choosing to fight over a little issue like the voting rights of two murderers rather than the big picture.

ikalugin

03-17-20, 08:23 AM

Well, I don`t understand how people can stand this

The reform bundles this stuff with the social reforms.

Rockstar

03-17-20, 09:06 AM

I may be mistaken, but wasn't Yeltsin the only leader in the history of Russia to ever voluntarily step down from office? Whats the chances if Putin were to step down or elections were held a transition of power would be at least somewhat peaceful? Whats the alternative to Putin?

I would hate to have to deal with this in my country. But there are some which require stable long term leadership to protect its own foreign and domestic interests. Yes, I'm sure things could be better but it right now it seems to work for Russia. As Markus would say 'its their headache', just as we have our own.

ikalugin

04-01-20, 10:09 AM

https://www.ridl.io/en/russia-s-armed-forces-under-gerasimov-the-man-without-a-doctrine/?fbclid=IwAR1emW_vpC-5majN4wyQelDAbFhkBci2EtBlIksslPYMnNN8Zo7pcGxawA8

An interesting article. Posting here as this seems to be the "Russia" thread.

Catfish

07-01-20, 04:45 AM

Jimbuna

07-01-20, 05:38 AM

I doubt he understands or actually cares what the word credibility means.

Catfish

07-02-20, 01:39 AM

I doubt he understands or actually cares what the word credibility means.Well he certainly does not have to appease anyone, with horseshoes in his velvet gloves..

Russians grant Putin right to extend his rule until 2036 in landslide vote (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-vote/russians-grant-putin-right-to-extend-his-rule-until-2036-in-landslide-vote-idUSKBN24254A)
" .... critics said the outcome was falsified on an industrial scale."

But then all competition is either dead or in prison, for who else shall they "vote" :shucks:. Like in China..

vienna

07-02-20, 04:24 AM

Reminds me of a comedy show skit where it showed a newscast from a banana republic dictatorship:

Newscaster: "In today's democratic national election, our beloved, all-knowing leader, El Presidente, was reelected once again by a vote of 1,385,493 to 1..."

[Loud sound of gunshot off camera; hand appears from right of screen handing paper to newscaster...]

Newscaster: "This just in: following a recount, El Presidente has been declared Presidente-For-Life by unanimous democratic vote..."...

<O>

Cybermat47

07-02-20, 09:27 AM

Russia’s Vladimir Putin just got one step closer to being the widest

https://youtu.be/Wl959QnD3lM

Aktungbby

07-02-20, 11:16 AM

Well someones gotta show Donald how to do it!:shucks:

vienna

07-02-20, 12:10 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUBAAeuBpPQ

<O>

Platapus

07-02-20, 08:53 PM

I think there are people in the world that prefer a dictator.

vienna

07-02-20, 08:59 PM

Maybe, but it does seem an awful lot of dictators end up being ousted by the very people they try to rule; democracies have very long lives, dictatorships, not so much...

<O>

Platapus

07-03-20, 06:19 AM

But how many of those ousted dictators are replaced by another dictator?

It would have been more accurate if I had written that there are people who prefer dictatorships as their form of government.

Aktungbby

07-03-20, 11:08 AM

I notice Putin is single, Hitler was single...married men live longer...find a wife who takes 'dictation' must be tough; and then there's poor Romanian Elena Ceausescue who 'stood by her man' to the bitter end...:oops::dead:

Jimbuna

07-03-20, 02:14 PM

^ He was married to Lyudmila Aleksandrovna Ocheretnaya in 1983 and they divorced in 2014.

Catfish

07-03-20, 02:22 PM

[...] there are people who prefer dictatorships as their form of government.
Dictators do :03:

Platapus

07-03-20, 06:54 PM

.married men live longer..

It just seems longer. :D

ikalugin

07-04-20, 04:25 AM

Vote that could extend Putin's rule culminates as Russians get cash payments (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-vote/vote-that-could-extend-putins-rule-culminates-as-russians-get-cash-payments-idUSKBN24254A)

:rotfl2::rotfl2: You just can't make some things up :haha:

Conflating the elections with the COVID-19/SARS-2 related support payments, a nice tactic. If they do make them they are bribing the voters if they don't they are abandoning our citizens. Great stuff. The young families with kids were targeted with support payements by the way because they are both most economically vulnerable and are least likely to hoard/save the money.

As to the topic - the statistical analasys does show some anomalies, if we account for them under the normalised hypothesis we are looking at around 42 percent turnout and 65 percent of people voting for the question in the elections.

vienna

07-04-20, 04:52 AM

Sometimes its more a question of timing: the Covid payments may have been timed to have an effect on voter perception; too early and the voter may forget about the 'largess' by election day; too close to election day and it seems to bee too apparent of a 'bribe/inducement'; we have had similar situations here in the US; during the Regan years, there were certain short-term investment programs that were set up to mature and payoff just before the midterm elections; the timing was very clever since it was set in motion long enough (about a year before election day) to be rather far back in the voters' memories and paid off just before the elections, giving a boost to both the bank accounts of the voters who participated and to the economy, in general, with the Regan administration to take credit for the economic 'rise'; the fact that the boost was rather of a short term would not be apparent until some months after the election. Similar manipulation occurs by private concerns with issues up for vote; back in 2006, there was a proposition on the ballot to raise the amount of fees charged to oil companies drilling in California to offset natural resource depletion, a common practice by many states in the US; the oil companies spent millions (IIRC, the amount by the main lobbying group was USD $19 million) on adverts decrying the proposed increase; what they did that was most effective was, a couple of months or so before the election, they slowly, gradually lowered the prices of gas and diesel in CA while hinting the prices would rise drastically if the fees were increased; the increase was defeated at the polls, but, surprise, surprise, gas and diesel prices shot back up a week or so after election day...

<O>

Catfish

07-04-20, 04:01 PM

Conflating the elections with the COVID-19/SARS-2 related support payments, a nice tactic. If they do make them they are bribing the voters if they don't they are abandoning our citizens. [...]
We will see how much the young and suffering families get after the election.
I have all sympathy for Putin trying to restore Russia as a global power (what it is) and give pride to Russians (what they should have), although this may look a bit dated in our times. See brexit. You know after all trade and cooperation usually works best for all involved, but i take it it for some it has been too long since the last war.

Catfish

07-05-20, 04:57 AM

The Forever Putin

So millions of Russians have agreed to change the constitution, most of them without reading it. Nine articles have been altered, God entered the basic constitution, as a guarantor of the unity of the russian federation.
Also russian citizens now know what marriage means: it is the holy bond between man and woman.
And the "president" was guaranteed the right for a forever presidency.

The citizens have thus been relieved from a great burden, they do not have to worry about who should reign their country. Also all this whining that there is no other candidate than Putin, is over. A forever president does not need a rival candidate.

Despite the pandemic and a high risk of contagion, the referendum has been organised flawlessly. One could agree to it everywhere, ballot boxes have been sighted in all kinds of places, in parks, on playgrounds, in backyards and in garbage dumps.
Who did not want to go out was allowed to agree at home, a nod in the tv's direction was enough.

The far-right representatives from Germany, Italy and Serbia sent their independent observers, all those flawless democrats of the AfD and Lega Nord. They have praised this referendum as a big leap in the development of the russian democracy.

No doubt it was a big victory for Putin. There is only one problem, this of a forever life. It cannot even be guaranteed by a perfectly orchestrated referendum. No one knows what will happen to the holy band between man and woman, woman and Putin, if one leaves.

ikalugin

07-05-20, 08:24 AM

And the "president" was guaranteed the right for a forever presidency.
I was under the impression that the wording was changed for two terms period from two terms in a row.

3. Одно и то же лицо не может занимать должность Президента Российской Федерации более двух сроков.
While there is the exception for persons who served terms prior to the amendments being passed (Putin, Medvedev) and Putin is going to be rather old in 2036 when it runds out for him it does not allow one to serve indefintely.

3.1. Положение части 3 статьи 81 Конституции Российской Федерации, ограничивающее число сроков, в течение которых одно и то же лицо может занимать должность Президента Российской Федерации, применяется к лицу, занимавшему и (или) занимающему должность Президента Российской Федерации, без учета числа сроков, в течение которых оно занимало и (или) занимает эту должность на момент вступления в силу поправки к Конституции Российской Федерации, вносящей соответствующее ограничение, и не исключает для него возможность занимать должность Президента Российской Федерации в течение сроков, допустимых указанным положением.

As such if we take the reforms as a sum, with the change of term length and this new legislation there was little real extension in Putin's ability to stay in office, as he could have done a swap with Medvedev and served another 12 years between them.