This Is What War Looks Like in 2029

[Onkel Neal]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/this-is-what-war-looks-like-in-2029?ref=home

The U.S. House of Representatives on Dec. 11 passed its version of the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act, clearing the way for the U.S. Senate to approve the measure. If President Donald Trump signs the bill, it will channel a staggering $740 billion into the Pentagon’s accounts.

That’s by far the biggest military budget of any country. The United States lavishes on its armed forces more than twice as much as No. 2 spender China does, and more than 10 times what No. 6 Russia does.

But all that spending, and the huge quantities of high-tech weaponry it buys, are preparing the Pentagon to fight the wrong war, a panel of experts told The Daily Beast. America is entering the 2020s at a strategic disadvantage. And it could take something awful happening before American leaders change their thinking.

Four years after disguised Russian forces conquered Ukraine’s Crimea region from the inside out, 18 years after 9/11 kicked off two U.S.-led occupations and 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall heralded the end of the Cold War, the United States is still equipping itself to fight warplane-versus-warplane, ship-versus-ship and tank-versus-tank against an obliging rival power.


This, plus the US will soon discover it is bankrupting itself through military spending. We are squandering our resources. Our defense budget is ridiculous. We should cut it in half, rely on drones and ICBMs to reply to a direct attack. And the US should get out of Afghanistan, Europe and Korea.

The biggest threat to the US is the insidious domestic growth of ignorance and socialism, we're doing that to ourselves.

One thing is clear. America’s existing military power isn’t up to the job. “Our superior military didn’t deter Russia from going into Georgia, Ukraine or Syria,” McFate pointed out. “China is winning the South China Sea with zero carrier groups.”

[Skybird]

And there is another problem, too, a demographic one.


https://dieunbestechlichen.com/2018/06/der-aktuelle-demographic-war-index/


From 1970 to 2017, the war index for the US has halved, and is now below 1.00.



This means any individual loss of a young fighter is so much harder to be compensated and repalkced, than in societies with high indices. To so9me degree this can be comeosnated with superior tehcnology - as long as that davantge doe snot get n eutrlaised by an according wepakjin strike, or by simpyl bpassing it and fighting a war under condiitonsd werre the technbologicalo advanatge does not become relevant. It also means that a civil society is getting less and lkess supportive of war. the energetic dynamics that an overshgoot in young, hormone-driven young males inject into a society, simply is missing. This effect is what is meant when talkig nabout the over-aging of societies.

However, Russia is even worse off (, and China also cannot claim advantages here. For the time being China just has a bigger reservoir of already exiosting replacmemnts. Once thwese are "consummed", by war or by time passing by, they will face the same problems like the West.

The real challenger here are the Islamic countries, and Africa. And it is here were we have the highest indices for actual violence and war-like action taking place. Due to the demographic development that is projected for them, they will remain to be the globe's biggest trouble makers for at least another two generations, 50-60 years, to come. Practically most of this century.

It pays off to know what the war index does, and to relate its values to the various historic events of the last century, and the present. It really pays off. Thats why NATO let the author invent and teach course in so-called "war demographics" at the NATO command college in Rome.

Heinsohn is famous for having his numbers well-prepared, and in overwhelming quantity and quality, no matter the issue he decides to mark a comment on. Empiry is the better reasonability. His comments in the oress are almost oversaturated with up-to-data and statistics. Its just that it does not always project the wanted, the welcomed, the demanded outcomes for the future. Thats why they hate him so much. Right he most of the time is, nevertheless. Empiry does not care for sentiments. Demography beats ideologically founded self-perception.


The nzumber sin that table show exactly what has gone wrong with the American wars and military adventures of the past 30 years. Just look at the indices for the enemies of the US and how they went up over the time of conflicts. The US never had a chance to "win" Iraq or Afghanistan. Not from all beginning on.


Russia plays it uch, much, much more clever. I do not say they are to be liked for it. I only say they are extremely economic and cost-effective. Superior gains from inferior investments, compared to the US.



Remidns a biot of US health care. The most costly system in the world - but not scoring that high in net effect at all. By outcome and result, others with lesser investements work much better.

[August]

And the US should get out of Afghanistan, Europe and Korea.


This ^

[nikimcbee]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/this-is-what-war-looks-like-in-2029?ref=home




This, plus the US will soon discover it is bankrupting itself through military spending. We are squandering our resources. Our defense budget is ridiculous. We should cut it in half, rely on drones and ICBMs to reply to a direct attack. And the US should get out of Afghanistan, Europe and Korea.

The biggest threat to the US is the insidious domestic growth of ignorance and socialism, we're doing that to ourselves.


When are you running for office?:Kaleun_Thumbs_Up: I don't think the US has the attention span or the will to win anything other than the Armed Forces Bowl. I think Eisenhower was right about the military industrial complex. The only area I really "worry":haha: about, is if the PRC decides to make it's move on Taiwan.

[Platapus]

If someone could find a way to make peace profitable, the United States would be the most peace loving country in the world.


Until then, the MIC is very profitable.

[mapuc]

Looking back in history and military history you can see who our ancestors fought a war.

I have tried to imagine a full scale war where two superpower or one of them is a superpower are using only unmanned machines.

How would such a war be fought ? Which type of military doctrine and strategy would be used ?

Markus

[Onkel Neal]

When are you running for office?:Kaleun_Thumbs_Up: I don't think the US has the attention span or the will to win anything other than the Armed Forces Bowl. I think Eisenhower was right about the military industrial complex. The only area I really "worry":haha: about, is if the PRC decides to make it's move on Taiwan.

Yes, and we should ask ourselves the question: Is Russia a serious threat to the world's security. Probably not unless provoked. Sure, they are a dictatorship run by a guy with his arm to his elbow in the cookie jar, and I do not want to diminish Ukraine, but they are no Third Reich,

Is China a serious threat to the world's security. Probably not. They may not allow their citizens all the freedoms we have, but they have an orderly society and for the most part, decent human rights. As long as you toe the Party line. Someday they will make their move on Taiwan, though I seriously cannot see why that's so blinking important to them.

Is the US a serious threat to the world's security. Hard for me to be unbiased, but other than the endless interventions in the middle east, I would say not. If the US would get serious about their justice system and enforce their internal laws, and forcing people to be accountable for their own welfare instead of leaning on the state, American society could improve, but I think the decline is an inevitable evolution of more freedom and ever-higher standards of living and expectations.

The US/China/Russia need to sit down and draw out a roadmap and become partners instead of adversaries.

Because the way things are going, one day something is gonna go wrong, then it will go really wrong.

[Jimbuna]

The US/China/Russia need to sit down and draw out a roadmap and become partners instead of adversaries.

Because the way things are going, one day something is gonna go wrong, then it will go really wrong.

QFT :yep:

[Mr Quatro]

Birds of a feather flock together ... it's hard to conceive that we could ever be allied with Russia or China on anything.

Iran and North Korea are allied with China supportive of North Korea as they were with Vietnam.

Look at how smart you have to be to be in the nuclear age with America, UK, France, Pakistan, India Russia, China and even Israel and now North Korea, even South Africa and Argentina use to have nuclear weapons.

Look at the arms race to have the best and latest fighter planes, ships, submarines, rockets, missiles.

There in is the problem one side thinks that they are smarter than the other side and that you are not going to tell them what to do.

Proud, arrogant, uppity can not get along with each other ... History proves that war is a way to control the other mans thoughts.

Yes there will be a war and society will have to start all over again from scratch saying things like "Oh we shouldn't have done that"

"Lets outlaw all nuclear weapons and if the other countries won't agree we will have to go to war with them" :o

[Aktungbby]

Birds of a feather flock together ... it's hard to conceive that we could ever be allied with Russia or China on anything.
...except Hitler's murderous Nazis and Hirohito's rapacious Nipponese!:oops::know:

[THEBERBSTER]

Hi Guys
Will I make it to be 84 years old?
Will I be well enough to want to make it to 84?
My wife and I will be celebrating our 50th which will is a (Golden Wedding Anniversary) in 2020

Peter